'If' We Trade Bedard

[Greg Pappas]

IF the O's are going to be looking to deal Bedard, I thought a thread dedicated to this would be a good idea.

Personally I'd go to Bedard and get his thoughts on signing an extension. If he were disinclined to discuss it, or said that he would likely wish to 'test the waters' then I'd be all for dealing him now. The market for Eric Bedard would be monstrous. While Bedard shows flashes of a true #1, I think most of us agree that he's more of a very good #2. He is left-handed, a young veteran (28) with 2+ years remaining on his current contract, and is among the league strikeout leaders.

How many teams that are in contention would want him? All? I think we can agree that if not all, then most of the dozen or so true contenders would be 'in' on Bedard.

The following teams strike me as possibilities:

NY Yankees; While the Yanks are a division 'rival', they could offer an intriguing collection of talent. Young pitchers like Ian Kennedy and Joba "The Hutt" Chamberlain have a lot of upside and are performing quite well in the minors. They also have a highly ranked prospect in 18 year old OF'er Jose Tabata.

Boston Red Sox; The Sox could certainly use Bedard. While Wakefield has pitched beyond his norms this season, one would expect him to come back down to earth. Boston sports all RHP's in their starting five, so having Bedard would help balance the rotation and would add an impressive top three of Schilling/Beckett/Matsuzaka. Stud starter prospect RHP Clay Buckholz should be a prime target.

Detroit Tigers; Detroit has enough hitting, but besides Bonderman and Verlander, their starters are less than solid. Lefty Mike Maroth is pitching below par, Chad Durbin is a decent fifth starter, Lefty Nate Robertson was awful before going onto the DL, and LHP Andrew Miller, their #1 and overall #1 pick from the 2006 draft, is just getting his feet wet. Bedard would solidify their staff, giving them a dynamic top three of Bonderman/Bedard/Verlander. The Tigers would not likely want to deal their top prospect and overall top 10 prospect in all of the minors, CF Cameron Maybin. However, he would have to be the centerpiece of any deal with the Tigers, as their organization offers little else of good value.

Cleveland Indians; Again, in a similar situation as the Tigers, the Indians have only two starters pitching well this year, in lefty C.C. Sabathia and the surprising RHP Fausto Carmona. Paul Byrd is a serviceable 4th-5th starter, but lefty Cliff Lee has been terrible this year. Cleveland desperately needs to solidify their rotation before their season begins to slip away. Highly touted and arguably the minors best pitching prospect, RHP Adam Miller offers hope for the Indians. But the Indians cannot go into the post-season relying on two rookie pitchers. I can't see the Indians dealing Miller, but their organization is lacking in prospects I'd take back.

Arizona DiamondBacks; The DBack's feature ace RHP Brandon Webb, LHP Randy Johnson, Livan (shell of his former self) Hernandez and lefty Doug Davis. It's unclear as to what extent the DBacks would have interest in Bedard, but with Hernandez pitching poorly and with stiff competition in the NL West, the DBacks may opt to get younger and stronger in their starting five. Again, it's unlikely that the DBacks would deal their top prospect. As a 19 year old center fielder, Justin Upton is likely the #1 positional prospect in the game. Already playing extremely well at AA, he may be on the verge of a big league call-up. It's likely the DBacks would need to move Upton to an outfield corner because of the stellar play of young CF Chris Young. I don't see the DBacks trading Young, Upton or RF'er Carlos Quentin. With star prospect, and also a CF, Carlos Gonzalez fairing poorly this season and most of their top prospects already on their big league roster, the DBacks may not have the parts to trade the O's, at least not parts they are willing to deal.

Minnesota Twins; The Twins have the best pitcher in baseball, don't you know (a lil' Up-North humor), in lefty Johan Santana and then a collection of rookie/young-vet starters (all right-handers) in Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva, Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker. With superstars like Mauer, Hunter, and Morneau, the Twins can score, although they are weak at 2B, SS, 3B and LF, and could look to increase their sad lack of production at those spots. If the Twins are to make a run this season, they need to make some changes not only to their lineup, but certainly to their rotation. Matt Garza, an outstanding RHP prospect at AAA, appears to be ML ready and could be the centerpiece of any trade discussions with the Birds.

LAA Angels; Ah, the ol' standby. We can never discount the Angels in any trade discussions, regardless of position. I think we all know who the Angels have.

Seattle Mariners; The M's are sporting a good record, and are in contention to win the AL West, but it is my contention that this is a mirage. The starting staff, sans LHP Washburn, has been brutal. Felix Hernandez is considered perhaps the game's top young pitcher, but after starting off on fire he went on the DL, and since returning he's been rocked pretty hard. If Hernandez settles back into his previous exceptional form and Washburn continues to pitch well, the M's will have merely 2/5th's of a playoff-caliber rotation. Acquiring Bedard would be huge for them, but as seems to be an ongoing theme, it's unlikely they would trade star prospect and CF'er Adam Jones. Perhaps current RHP and last year's #1 pick Brandon Morrow would interest the FO.

Atlanta Braves; This team continuously jumps out at me. IF Atlanta is a buyer this trade season, they may look again to the O's for help. They lack speed and need help in their rotation as well. While Kelly Johnson is playing very well this season at 2B, he is not the defender that BRob is. Roberts would be just the dynamic leadoff man that the Braves need, sending Johnson back to LF. The rotation features Smoltz, Tim Hudson, and LHP Chuck James. Hudson has fallen on hard times and the venerable Bob Wickman is holding down the closers job. Bedard, Ray and Roberts would all make an immediate impact on the Braves roster. The good news is that the Braves system offers a potentially solid return. The minors best catching prospect was Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but he has been called up to help the Braves at 1B and as a backup to Brian McCann. It is apparent to many that 'Salty' could be the one to go and I personally would be pleased to acquire him in any package w/ Atlanta. The Braves also have a fine SS/2B prospect in AAA, in Cuban defector Yunel Escobar as well as pitching prospects in lefties Matt Harrison and Jo Jo Reyes. Atlanta is a solid choice as a landing spot for one of our boys.

LA Dodgers; Last, but not least is the Dodgers. They could offer from among young LHP's Clayton Kershaw or Scott Elbert, 1B James Loney or RH reliever Jonathan Meloan.

A lot to take in, thanks for bearing with a rather long thread starter. What do you think?

[howie14]

Haven't we burned our bridges with the Braves and Angels by now?

I'd really like to obtain some young, everyday players as part of any rebuilding deals, just so I don't have to watch this team score 1.5 runs a night forever. Maybe it's just my imagination, but it always seems easier to find pitching prospects in these deals.

[JayGibbons31]

I think you should also add the New York Mets to your list. Pedro is still no lock to return to the rotation this year, and right now Jorge Sosa is still their fifth starter. They also have plenty of young outfielders to deal (Gomez, Milledge, Martinez) as well as plenty of young arms (Pelfrey Humber etc.). I think the Mets make a lot of sense as a destination for Bedard. Personally I do not think we have to rush to trade Bedard but at this point I'm really not against trading anybody (except Nick of course).

[Greg Pappas]

I think you should also add the New York Mets to your list. Pedro is still no lock to return to the rotation this year, and right now Jorge Sosa is still their fifth starter. They also have plenty of young outfielders to deal (Gomez, Milledge, Martinez) as well as plenty of young arms (Pelfrey Humber etc.). I think the Mets make a lot of sense as a destination for Bedard. Personally I do not think we have to rush to trade Bedard but at this point I'm really not against trading anybody (except Nick of course).

I had considered the Mets, but their staff is already good and I'm not that high on their pitching prospects. I like Milledge, but Gomez and Martinez have struggled this year. Not a bad idea, but Bedard could get more elsewhere.

Edit: I do like RHP Kevin Mulvey. He can be a good one.

[JTrea81]

The Dodgers would be the best destination for Bedard. Kershaw or Elbert would be nice to add. We should be able to get one of them plus Loney and Kemp or LaRoche for him.

[nadecir]

Nice post Greg. Thanks for the research and analysis.

I think just about any contender could use starting pitching of the caliber of Erik Bedard. The only possible exception is the the Mets, if Pedro Martinez can be effective again.

As I said in another thread, I'm more interested in younger players than major league caliber players as trade targets for Bedard. I don't think there is any scenario in which the Orioles compete in 2008 or 2009. So I don't want to waste much service time on a older prospect in our years which we are likely to be not competing.

How about the Brewers as a destination for Bedard? Dave Bush doesn't look like he is going to cut it in the rotation. Will Inman looks like a pretty good prospect.

And the Phillies could use another starter. Carlos Carrasco fits as a good young prospect as a trade target.

I like the Diamondbacks as trade partners. I think they would be willing to trade one of their prized outfield prospects in return for a chance at a run this year with Erik Bedard.

[Mad Mark]

I'm reluctant to trade Bedard, right up to the moment he says "I'm not resigning with you guys". At that point, I ask him to have the good grace to keep his mouth shut, and deal him, pronto.

You're right. Ask him now. The answer should be interesting. Especially the one to the "why won't you resign with us?" question.

[Greg Pappas]

Nice post Greg. Thanks for the research and analysis.

I think just about any contender could use starting pitching of the caliber of Erik Bedard. The only possible exception is the the Mets, if Pedro Martinez can be effective again.

As I said in another thread, I'm more interested in younger players than major league caliber players as trade targets for Bedard. I don't think there is any scenario in which the Orioles compete in 2008 or 2009. So I don't want to waste much service time on a older prospect in our years which we are likely to be not competing.

How about the Brewers as a destination for Bedard? Dave Bush doesn't look like he is going to cut it in the rotation. Will Inman looks like a pretty good prospect.

And the Phillies could use another starter. Carlos Carrasco fits as a good young prospect as a trade target.

I like the Diamondbacks as trade partners. I think they would be willing to trade one of their prized outfield prospects in return for a chance at a run this year with Erik Bedard.

I appreciate the kind words.

I had considered both Philly and Milwaukee, but I don't believe they match up all that well with prospects. I like Inman and Carrasco as well, but these kids are a bit too far off to be considered as centerpiece types.

[Greg Pappas]

I'm reluctant to trade Bedard, right up to the moment he says "I'm not resigning with you guys". At that point, I ask him to have the good grace to keep his mouth shut, and deal him, pronto.

You're right. Ask him now. The answer should be interesting. Especially the one to the "why won't you resign with us?" question.

Hehehe, yeah I know it's 2+ years away, but the O's need to look at the big picture NOW. We are in agreement.

[psk3170]

If your trading Bedard, then in my opinion the return needs to be established young Major leaguers or prospects ready to make the jump the day we trade not prospects who could be derailed by injuries by the time they reach Baltimore or do not trade him. I am thinking Tex(TX), Kendrick(LAA), Kotchman(LAA),Wood(LAA), Carter(AZ), Garza(Minn), Slowey(Minn), Salty(ATL) who by the way is identical in size and measurables to Wieters if you want a Wieters comp, Clement(Sea), etc. Colorado has some nice young talent as do the Brewers for some other teams to consider.

[geschinger]

I'm reluctant to trade Bedard, right up to the moment he says "I'm not resigning with you guys". At that point, I ask him to have the good grace to keep his mouth shut, and deal him, pronto.

You're right. Ask him now. The answer should be interesting. Especially the one to the "why won't you resign with us?" question.

I think it depends on where one thinks we are as a franchise. If we were close to being a contender then absolutely I'd rather resign Bedard. However I don't think we're close to being a contender and whether he would resign of not I think Bedard has more value to this franchise in what he might bring back in a trade than he does pitching for the O's.

[erb8472]

We should be able to get two if not three top 10 prospects from somebody.

[Greg Pappas]

I think it depends on where one thinks we are as a franchise. If we were close to being a contender then absolutely I'd rather resign Bedard. However I don't think we're close to being a contender and whether he would resign of not I think Bedard has more value to this franchise in what he might bring back in a trade than he does pitching for the O's.

Therein lies the real question as regards Bedard's future in Baltimore. Most look at this team as structured and see a team in need of a transfusion, while it's possible the FO sees a way around the glaring problems and thinks a few more patches can alleviate the damage.

I want Bedard to remain as a centerpiece of a strong rotation, our default best starter until supplanted by a great young hurler. However, as I stated earlier, we should be getting an idea from him on his current feelings about resigning with us. No? Trade him. Yes, I want to resign, let's get it done? Deal, we resign him now. I see us having a potentially dynamic roster come '09 or '10 with the possibilities of Rowell/Wieters/Teixeira arriving, coupled with the shrew trades made to net us other highy-touted positional players.

Time will tell.

[Greg Pappas]

If your trading Bedard, then in my opinion the return needs to be established young Major leaguers or prospects ready to make the jump the day we trade not prospects who could be derailed by injuries by the time they reach Baltimore or do not trade him. I am thinking Tex(TX), Kendrick(LAA), Kotchman(LAA),Wood(LAA), Carter(AZ), Garza(Minn), Slowey(Minn), Salty(ATL) who by the way is identical in size and measurables to Wieters if you want a Wieters comp, Clement(Sea), etc. Colorado has some nice young talent as do the Brewers for some other teams to consider.

Agreed to a degree. No way would/should we trade Bedard for Teixeira. I doubt Kendrick and Kotchman are available now, while Wood's star has taken a turn for the worse (I may have been wrong about wanting him). Garza, Slowey and Salty are guys I'd see us targeting and mentioned them in my thread starter.

[erb8472]

No way IMO is Salty traded by Atlanta.