'If' We Trade Bedard

[Guest rochester]

Greg:

Nice job!!

I would not have any problem dealing Bedard for the right mix...I would rather see him go to the NL though...and would cringe if he remained in the AL East... Finally I would rather have DCab go....still too erratic...although if we did trade him he would end up in the HOF:eek:

I think we will have some good opportunities to change the face of this organization...a little gunshy about moving the SPs but....

[Greg Pappas]

No way IMO is Salty traded by Atlanta.

That's possible, no doubt. If he were able to handle 1B and hit enough for there then it'd be a nice situation there in Atlanta. Having two outstanding catchers is a nice 'problem' to have, but they may decide to alternate the two between 1B and Catcher, giving both of them a major break from the grinds of catching and potentially lengthening their careers.

[Greg Pappas]

Greg:

Nice job!!

I would not have any problem dealing Bedard for the right mix...I would rather see him go to the NL though...and would cringe if he remained in the AL East... Finally I would rather have DCab go....still too erratic...although if we did trade him he would end up in the HOF:eek:

I think we will have some good opportunities to change the face of this organization...a little gunshy about moving the SPs but....

Thanks reflynn.

I'd also prefer to see him in the NL, IF we decided to deal him. But some of the great choices of trade partners lie in the AL. Time will tell. Good thoughts.

[Sports Guy]

I am not sure you can narrow this down to just contenders...Almost every team would be gunning for Bedard.

I disagree about the Mets...They will be right up there with everyone else.

[srock]

I am leaning towards trading Bedard, but he should not be the first player traded. The first guy to be traded is Trachsel. He is pitching very effectively, only signed for the season, and loads of teams need to add a starter. He will return 1-2 prospects which is pretty good considering the Orioles gave up nothing for him nor is he in any long term plans.

After Trachsel, smaller moves such as Millar, Gibbons, Mora, Patterson, maybe Huff, and bullpen should go. I am not sure how much this will net, but some of them have to go. This will help reduce the supply of players thus increasing demand for your top guys, Bedard and Tejada. They alone will bring back a great deal of talent if they are traded near or at the deadline; in fact, I believe they bring back 5-6 ML ready players. We don't need any more pitching depth (not that I wouldn't take it) so I could see a lineup next season where 5 starting position players come from trading these two players. All the sudden the lack of positional depth isn't a major concern and we still have the pitching depth.

I know Angelo's won't allow Roberts to be traded, but I would move him, he ain't no spring chicken. That being said, I don't mind him staying around.

[Delduck]

I've really enjoyed this well thought out thread.

I would hate to see us trade him but if it make our team stronger for the future I am all for it. With as many flaws as this team has, I don't think we can look at Bedard and think well he may do this or that if we trade him. We need to focus on the players we get in return, and if we get the return we should get for him I would think we would solidify 2 - 3 positions for years to come. And have atleast one really special player out of the deal.

[Camden_yardbird]

I think Bedard stays at a high level and only has the potential with his K rate to break out even more. With two years remaining on his contract I think trading him now is foolhardy. We need to wait a year and here is why:

1. Gives him time to really break out to what we saw in ST. His trade value only goes up. At 28 there is definitely room for improvement.

2. Gives our prospects that we will need to compete more time to sort themselves out. There is no point in going after Salty if Rowell goes to 1st and Wieters signs.

3. We will know more about Bedard's intentions regarding an extension. He may not even know right now if he will sign an extension in 2+ years.

I don't think it is the right time to trade Bedard unless the orioles are offered 2 or 3 top prosects in a trade.

[davearm]

I could certainly see a deal with the Mets going down.

Start with Milledge. Gives the O's a longterm CF with lots of upside.

Add one of the Mets' current rotation starters, like Ollie Perez or Jorge Sosa.

Add a 5-10 range prospect (not Gomez, Martinez, Pelfrey, or Humber). Perhaps Jon Niese.

I think that'd be a realistic deal that would work for both teams.

[erb8472]

I could certainly see a deal with the Mets going down.

Start with Milledge. Gives the O's a longterm CF with lots of upside.

Add one of the Mets' current rotation starters, like Ollie Perez or Jorge Sosa.

Add a 5-10 range prospect (not Gomez, Martinez, Pelfrey, or Humber). Perhaps Jon Niese.

I think that'd be a realistic deal that would work for both teams.

If you take Milledge you almost have to get another 1-5 prospect with him. He's got tremendous talent, but he could also take the Dukes career path at any moment.

[Sports Guy]

I could certainly see a deal with the Mets going down.

Start with Milledge. Gives the O's a longterm CF with lots of upside.

Add one of the Mets' current rotation starters, like Ollie Perez or Jorge Sosa.

Add a 5-10 range prospect (not Gomez, Martinez, Pelfrey, or Humber). Perhaps Jon Niese.

I think that'd be a realistic deal that would work for both teams.

You continue to not realize what Bedard will fetch.

Perez or Sosa? LOL LOL LOL

[JTrea81]

You continue to not realize what Bedard will fetch.

Perez or Sosa? LOL LOL LOL

Yeah, that's pretty sad. We wouldn't trade Bedard unless we got three ML ready prospects back. The Dodgers with Kershaw or Elbert, Loney and Kemp/LaRoche seem like the best match. Either that or the D-Backs.

[tywright]

Just some comments after reading the thread

- Trade DCab before Bedard

- If you trade Bedard you don't do it this year and you don't trade him to an AL team

- The Mets will be interested and will overpay

- Milledge is overrated

- Dodgers' Scott Elbert is out for the year

[Sports Guy]

Just some comments after reading the thread

- Trade DCab before Bedard

- If you trade Bedard you don't do it this year and you don't trade him to an AL team

- The Mets will be interested and will overpay

- Milledge is overrated

- Dodgers' Scott Elbert is out for the year

I agree with everything you say here except for this.

You trade Bedard when you get a great offer. If it happens tonight, you do it.

Doesn't matter where he goes as long as it improves you as a team.

[Greg Pappas]

Could not disagree more, nobody is going to pay more than the Mets.

Perez, Maine, and Sosa are having very solid years... and Perez does have excellent stuff.. and they are going to get Pedro back.. but I do believe Minaya will be killed if he allows that team to go it the playoffs with Glavine, Pedro and whoever...

Bedard to Mets for Milledge OF, Pelfrey SP, and woud loved either Carlos Gomez OF, or Fenando Martinez OF as a 3rd... but think the O's would have strongly consider just Milledge and Pelfrey if the Mets were unwilling to add a 3rd.

Rationale:

Orioles: Bedard is extremely talented, do not have to trade him now,

locked up through '09.. not winning with current roster, if you can

get back an everyday player in Milledge, a starter with upside in

Pelfrey, and a 3rd talented prospect, are you not better off? Even if

the Mets decided they could not add a 3rd Prospect the caliber of

Gomez or Martinez, O's might have to consider the deal.

Mets: Nobody is going to pay more than the Mets... they have a roster

built to win now, in a city that only cares about today, with a GM

that will worry about tomorrow later, with a need for another strong

SP. Losing prospects mentioned will not impact their Major League

Roster come playoff time, adding Bedard (coupled with getting Pedro

back) makes them legit World Series contenders. They know they can not

go into the playoffs with their current rotation (even including

Pedro) and win.. will be a lot of pressure on Minaya to obtain a top

SP at all costs..

3rd Party Analysis of Prospects:

Prospect Smackdown: Delmon Young vs. Lastings Milledge By John Sickels

Posted on Fri Nov 11, 2005

Note: Sickels was comparing Milledge to Young, I have taken out his

words on Young..

BACKGROUND and INTANGIBLES

Milledge: "Milledge was drafted by the Mets in the first round in

2003, out of high school in Florida. 12th overall. Like Young,

Milledge comes from a baseball family and has a good feel for what

professional baseball is all about. Milledge faced an allegation of

sexual misconduct in high school, but no charges were ever filed, and

he's had no behavior problems as a pro. Like Young, Milledge is

intelligent, confident, and has a good work ethic. He hasn't faced the

same questions about "arrogance" that Young has."

PHYSICALITY and TOOLS

Milledge: "Milledge is an excellent all-around athlete. He doesn't

have quite as much pure strength as Young, but his bat may be a hair

quicker due to his light-speed wrists, which will help him hit for

average. Milledge is faster, leaner, and should have an easier time

maintaining his speed. He also has a strong throwing arm. On the other

hand, Milledge has been prone to nagging injuries and muscle pulls,

and durability may be an issue down the line. Like Young, Milledge is

a Five-Tool talent, but has a somewhat better chance to maintain all

of those tools in the long run. He will also be a more valuable

defensive player in the long run."

PERFORMANCE and SKILLS

Milledge: In 793 career at-bats, Milledge has hit .313 with a .485

SLG. He hit .337/.392/.487 in 48 games of Double-A baseball at age 20,

obviously impressive performance considering his age group and the

level of competition. He also stole 29 bases this year. Milledge can

hit for power and average, but at this point he has less realized

power than Young. He also needs to improve his stolen base success

ratio. Like Young, Milledge doesn't control the strike zone very well,

and his strikeout rate is higher. It hasn't hurt his production yet,

but he needs to improve his read on the zone to thrive in the majors.

With more experience, he should develop all Seven Skills.

PROJECTION

Milledge: "Given his age, performance, and tools, Milledge projects as

a superstar player, capable of hitting .300 or higher with lots of

power and good speed.. His OBP may be a problem early, and he has more

work to do in the plate discipline department than Young does. He also

doesn't project to hit as many homers. On the other hand, Milledge

projects to be a better defensive player."

OVERALL

Milledge: "Milledge has a very slight edge in overall physical tools

and defense.

Advantage: On balance, I think that Young comes out a hair ahead of

Milledge, but it's a photo finish."

Found this great Blog article about Pelfrey, guy compiled a lot of

information.

Wednesday, January 3, 2007

By Mike Steffanos

www.mikesmets.com

"Mike Pelfrey was the Mets' first round draft pick, the ninth overall

player taken in the 2005 amateur draft. He was acknowledged to be the

top pitcher in that draft but, thanks to the fact that his agent was

Scott Boras, he fell to the Mets. The lanky right-hander features a

very good fastball that sits in the mid 90s and reaches 97 at times,

with good natural movement and sinking action. Unlike many tall

pitchers, Pelfrey possesses a fluid repeatable delivery that enables

him to maintain that good fastball deep into games.

Besides the plus fastball, Pelfrey came out of college throwing a

decent changeup and a "slurve" breaking pitch that was considered his

weakest offering. That proved to be the case, as Pelfrey struggled for

consistency with that pitch in the minors and in his brief time in the

majors. In a couple of Arizona Fall League appearances Pelfrey

featured a traditional slider as his breaking pitch and was said to be

showing more promise with it. This would bear watching in spring

training.

After his initial pro season, Scout.com has Pelfrey rated as the

team's #2 overall prospect behind OF Carlos Gomez, and offers the

following scouting report on the big right-hander:

At 6-foot-7, Pelfrey can be very intimidating with his plus fastball

that sits in the mid-90's and touches 97 MPH at times with a ton of

movement. But with a good changeup and a very inconsistent curveball,

he often times falls in love with his fastball and doesn't have the

ability to mix in his secondary pitches to keep hitters off-balance.

He has shown the ability to throw an above average changeup and

curveball at times, he just needs to work on being consistent with

their release points and location to realize his full potential.

Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein ranks Pelfrey a notch lower, just

behind Phil Humber. Goldstein sees the potential for Pelfrey to be a

front line starter in the majors, but only if he can develop his

off-speed pitches:

The Good: Outstanding fastball features plus-plus velocity (92-95 mph,

touches 97) and plus-plus movement, as he's capable of adding major

cutting or sinking action on it. Height, and therefore downward plane,

only adds to Pelfrey's effectiveness. Repeats delivery well and has

very good command for such a large pitcher.

The Bad: Breaking ball pulled a bit of a disappearing act in 2006. He

had a decent over-the-top curveball in college, but he just never

found his feel for it this year, forcing him to pitch primarily off

his fastball, which worked in the minors, but hindered his

effectiveness during a brief big league look. Changeup is usable, but

like the curve, he loses confidence in it, reducing himself to a

one-pitch pitcher.

John Sickels rates Pelfrey ahead of Humber, and feels the breaking

pitch will come:

I think the breaking pitch problem is overblown. He had a good one in

college and I think he'll find it again. I am sticking with my guns on

this one.

Finally, the just released top 10 Mets prospect list from Baseball

America's Matt Meyers rates Mike Pelfrey as the number one prospect in

the system, and feels he's ready for a spot in the rotation right now:

Strengths: There are few pitchers in the minors whose fastball can

rival Pelfrey's. His two-seamer sits at 92-95 mph with fierce sink and

late life and rates as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He throws it

effortlessly from a 6-foot-7 frame on a steep downhill plane with

great extension and solid command. ... Though Pelfrey barely needed to

use a changeup as an amateur, he already has a good feel for it and

it's his No. 2 pitch.

The Future: Though he needs better command of his secondary stuff,

there's little left for Pelfrey to prove in the minors. With Martinez

out until at least the all-star break, Pelfrey will definitely be in

the mix for the Opening Day rotation. He should be in the Mets

rotation for years to come and has the potential to be a legitimate

No. 1 starter.

Here are his numbers for 2006 at 3 different minor league levels and

in New York:

> 2006 Major and Minor League Stats -- Mike Pelfrey

> Team Starts Innings Hits/9 K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA AVG

> St. Lucie (A) 4 22.0 7.0 10.6 0.8 0.4 1.64 .224

> Binghamton (AA) 12 66.1 8.1 10.4 3.5 0.3 2.71 .244

> Norfolk (AAA) 2 8.0 4.5 6.8 5.6 1.1 2.25 .148

> Minor League Totals 18 96.1 7.6 10.2 3.1 0.4 2.43 .232

> Mets 4 21.1 10.5 5.5 5.1 0.4 5.48 .305

>

>

> There is little doubt that at this stage of their pro careers, 2004

> top pick Phil Humber is a more polished pitcher than Pelfrey,

> possessing a major league-caliber breaking pitch and changeup to

> compliment his low 90s fastball. Despite missing most of 2005 and part

> of last season after Tommy John surgery, if you held a gun to my head

> I would choose Humber over Pelfrey as the young pitcher most likely to

> make an impact in 2007. In the long run, though, that fastball gives

> Pelfrey a higher ceiling.

>

> I believe it would be a mistake to judge Pelfrey too harshly because

> he struggled in his brief stint in New York last season. Despite the

> lack of refined off-speed pitches that caused him to rely excessively

> on his fastball, Pelfrey was able to get a couple of wins and acquit

> himself respectably for a raw rookie. When you can throw one fastball

> after another (78% of his pitches) to major league hitters and live to

> tell about it, you have a God-given gift that can take you somewhere

> special.

>

> Keep in mind also that we're not talking one of those kids who doesn't

> know where the ball is going (Hit the mascot!). He has command of his

> fastball thanks to that consistent delivery. That's a good, solid

> platform on which to develop his other pitches. You can teach someone

> how to throw a changeup and slider, but a fastball that gets you more

> than your share of strikeouts and groundballs is the stuff that aces

> are made of.

>

> What he really needs is some time out of the harsh glare of the

> spotlight to hone his game. It's a good thing to keep in mind that

> Pelfrey turns 23 this month, so he has plenty of time to put it

> together. As for the whole Pelfrey vs. Humber debate, my answer is,

> "who cares?" I like them both, and would love to see the two young

> righties front this rotation for the next few years. It's rare for an

> organization to have two young pitchers who are both close to major

> league ready and both have a high ceiling at the same time. Count your

> blessings, Mets fans.

>

> In any case, provided he stays healthy; Pelfrey will undoubtedly

> contribute to this club going forward. It's a mistake to think that he

> must achieve his absolute ceiling to justify his existence as a Met.

> Even if he fails to develop the consistency with his off-speed stuff

> to fulfill that front of the rotation potential, his fastball is good

> enough to enable a quality pro career lower in the rotation or in the

> bullpen. In the current economics of major league baseball, a

> productive young pitcher who will make nothing for three years and be

> under a team's control for the next three is a valuable commodity,

> indeed.

>

> At this stage, attempting to predict what Pelfrey will contribute in

> 2007 would be just a shot in the dark. I'd like to see what he does in

> spring training with that new slider first before I would attempt to

> guess at how much of a contribution he would make in New York. I think

> he will pitch for the Mets in 2007. I do believe, however, that a

> scenario where Pelfrey spends at least the first 2-3 months in AAA-New

> Orleans is preferable, even if he masters that slider fairly quickly.

>

> We've had some back and forth on the site with some readers who would

> like to see Pelfrey hone his skills in the Mets bullpen in 2007. While

> I understand the thinking, I think the need to develop his pitches

> points to leaving him as a starter in AAA. There is no substitute for

> taking the ball every fifth day, starting games and using all your

> pitches. The pressure to succeed as a major league reliever would

> cause Pelfrey to rely on his fastball at the expense of honing the

> off-speed stuff. It would make more to sense to use Phil Humber as a

> reliever, if the team is so inclined, since Humber already features a

> mature and full repertoire of pitches. While I respect the opposing

> position, I wouldn't personally be in favor of using Pelfrey in

> relief."

>

>

> Carlos Gomez

> www.nyfuturestars.com

>

> "The Mets signed Carlos Gomez on July 27, 2002 out of his hometown of

> Santiago, Dominican Republic. Gomez is regarded as one of the top

> prospects in the organization, blessed with blinding speed, a great

> arm, and raw power. The Mets accelerated his progress through the

> system by having him skip high-A ball and move directly to Double-A.

> He was added to the 40-man roster in November, 2006 to protect him

> from the Rule V Draft. Gomez was named the Mets 3rd best prospect in

> 2007 by BA. They also gave him several other awards, including,

> fastest baserunner, best athlete, best defensive outfielder and best

> outfield arm in the organization. Carlos was called up for his first

> Major League appearance with the Mets on May 13th, 2007."

>

> Fernando Martinez

> www.nyfuturestars.com

>

> "The Mets signed Fernando out of the Dominican Republic on July 11,

> 2005, giving him a eye-opening bonus of $1.4 million. The youngster is

> considered a potential 5-tool player and the Mets are so high on him

> that he will begin his career as a 17-year-old in full-season

> Hagerstown. In 2007 Baseball America named Fernando the Mets 2nd Best

> Overall prospect. They also said he was the best hitter for average

> and best power hitter in the Mets system."

I thought my post was long.

If Glavine/Hernandez/Perez/Maine and Sosa are all continue pitching well, then I don't see the Mets needing a SP. However, I can see your points on Minaya's wanting to head into the playoffs more secure than he is now.

I have long been a fan of Lastings Milledge and have followed his career since his junior year of HS. It is true that a change of scenery could do him good and I would certainly approve of acquiring him.

One thing I've learned over the years is that the NY teams' prospects are often over-valued by the media. BA naturally has an unbiased view, so their analysis counts far more to me than NYfuturestars.com. I know all about Pelfrey/Humber/Martinez and other Mets prospects, but I have never been as high on them as others have. Pelfrey and Humber both were college horses, each with big-time stuff, but injuries and bouts of ineffectiveness have curtailed their young careers. Martinez and Gomez are both playing fairly poorly so far this season and while their talent appears to be there, their production must catch up.

I guess my point is that while the Mets are potential suiters, I see options with other teams as more amiable for the O's. This is not to say that a Pelfrey/Milledge/Mulvey trifecta would not entice me, as it would. I just don't see the Mets offering three talents of that magnitude.

Great post, informative. Thanks crstoner.

[Greg Pappas]

Just some comments after reading the thread

- Trade DCab before Bedard

- If you trade Bedard you don't do it this year and you don't trade him to an AL team

- The Mets will be interested and will overpay

- Milledge is overrated

- Dodgers' Scott Elbert is out for the year

In order.

-Why?

-Why not this year?

-Possibly.

-Also possibly, but I still believe in his ability to play in the majors at a high level.

-I had missed that, thanks for the update.