Style points

[VickRoznovsky]

Always enjoy your insight, Frobby. The way I read it, you're sort of asking if the ends (runs) justify the means (homerun or die) and I may be oversimplifying. The issue isn't with the runs or how they are scored its with how the outs are made in a one-dimensional offense. As we talked about before, we have so many unproductive outs, i.e. advancing a runner, hitting a sacrifice fly, etc... because we swing big and we miss big. Of course there is always a threat that any guy could hit a homerun on you but there is a greater chance that he is going to plain strike out. Having a multi-dimensional offense, even if it scores the same amount of runs, just seems to put more pressure on the entire defense rather than simply the battery. I fear I have made it too simplistic but I would rather a multi-dimensional offense and that statement comes with very little certifiable credibility I guess.

[Frobby]

I don't think it is a matter of "style" points. What I want is an offense that can score in a variety of ways, consistently, in a variety of situations. An all-or-nothing offense may have the highest probability of scoring 10 runs but a low probability of scoring 1 run in any given inning. I would not totally give up on a HR-based strategy but it would nice to have some different ways of scoring, so yes, I think it is at least theoretically possible to win more games with lower overall run production if you could guarantee the run production would be more consistent.

There is a widely held belief that because our offense is HR-driven, we are more boom-or-bust than the average team. It's not really true. Here is a comparison of the Orioles' run distribution and the AL average:

0 runs: 6 (8.8)

1 run: 15 (17.8)

2 runs: 24 (21.5)

3 runs: 27 (22.3)

4 runs: 19 (19.5)

5 runs: 20 (19.7)

6 runs: 16 (14.1)

7+ runs: 35 (39.2)

[Ripken]

I don't like small ball, per se, but I enjoy base hits, walks, stringing hits together, working counts, dancing off first, stealing the occasional bag, etc. VS. this mess we have going now. I'm sorry but there was never a chance of this team winning 12 post season games with this lineup. It's too all or nothing to have sustained success.

[Ohfan67]

If the two configurations scored the same number of runs, then I don't care unless the beer league softball lineup can't play defense. I think most posters are assuming that a less homer dependent lineup would include higher OBP guys and a little more speed. That would result in more runs scored and hopefully correlated with better outfield defense.

[Frobby]

I don't like small ball, per se, but I enjoy base hits, walks, stringing hits together, working counts, dancing off first, stealing the occasional bag, etc. VS. this mess we have going now. I'm sorry but there was never a chance of this team winning 12 post season games with this lineup. It's too all or nothing to have sustained success.

We went an entire month never scoring less than 3 runs. Set a record, if I recall correctly. So of course they were capable of having a hot postseason and win the Series. But they were at the other end of the spectrum at the time.

[Aristotelian]

We went an entire month never scoring less than 3 runs. Set a record, if I recall correctly. So of course they were capable of having a hot postseason and win the Series. But they were at the other end of the spectrum at the time.

That underscores how bad we were after June. We were one of the worst offenses in MLB over the second half, and that is despite leading MLB in HR. The question is whether you think the second half was below our true talent or regression to the norm. I did not see any signs of us potentially turning things around at the end of the year. In fact, it looked like we were getting worse.

[Aristotelian]

There is a widely held belief that because our offense is HR-driven, we are more boom-or-bust than the average team. It's not really true. Here is a comparison of the Orioles' run distribution and the AL average:

0 runs: 6 (8.8)

1 run: 15 (17.8)

2 runs: 24 (21.5)

3 runs: 27 (22.3)

4 runs: 19 (19.5)

5 runs: 20 (19.7)

6 runs: 16 (14.1)

7+ runs: 35 (39.2)

We were 3 games above average scoring 3 runs or less. That's not great, especially considering you are leading the league in HR. It is true, we didn't actually boom very much.

[Pat Kelly]

I think it is reassuring to know we are around average, but average is not great, it's average. Sometimes average is perceived as poor because it is not exceptional. Being above average in HRs does not equal a clutch, above average or league leading/best offense it just makes up for other shortcomings.

If the O's were above average or more importantly can become excellent then we will be on the path to a championship. Everyone remembers the great teams, World Series winners.

[Chavez Ravine]

I think when your team struggles offensively it is natural to think how much better they would be if they stopped swinging and missing. Crush Davis is exactly the same as this September's Chris Davis except that Crush crushed all those called third strikes Chris took for statcast home runs and Crush laced those changeups Chris was two feet out in front of for opposite field doubles. What caused the difference? I don't know.

[Frobby]

That underscores how bad we were after June. We were one of the worst offenses in MLB over the second half, and that is despite leading MLB in HR. The question is whether you think the second half was below our true talent or regression to the norm. I did not see any signs of us potentially turning things around at the end of the year. In fact, it looked like we were getting worse.

I think the full season stats reflect the truth. I predicted before the year started that we would score 25-40 runs more than last year. We scored 31 runs more than last year, almost the midpoint of what I predicted. But the league as a whole was up about 24 per team more than last year, so really the O's improved by +7 relative to the league. More or less in line with their true talent IMO.

[Aristotelian]

I think the full season stats reflect the truth. I predicted before the year started that we would score 25-40 runs more than last year. We scored 31 runs more than last year, almost the midpoint of what I predicted. But the league as a whole was up about 24 per team more than last year, so really the O's improved by +7 relative to the league. More or less in line with their true talent IMO.

If we were alternating good months and bad months I would agree. Three straight months of declining OBP and run production? That looks like a sustained trend.

[brianod]

We play in Camden Yards so, we should build a lineup for our stadium. I don't think we need huge home run numbers but we do need power top to bottom. We need to strike out less, improve the defense and maintain power. Not an easy equation, but it's the one that has to be solved.

[Frobby]

If we were alternating good months and bad months I would agree. Three straight months of declining OBP and run production? That looks like a sustained trend.

Meh. July was much worse than August and September. I still think the full season best reflects the truth. In any event, until we see what unfolds in the offseason, it's hard to know what if anything carries over into 2017.

[Ripken]

We went an entire month never scoring less than 3 runs. Set a record, if I recall correctly. So of course they were capable of having a hot postseason and win the Series. But they were at the other end of the spectrum at the time.

We have been regressing terribly for months and we didn't have that streak in cold weather, against playoff pitching. That game in Toronto showed exactly who the 2016 Orioles offense was. Bad.

[Aristotelian]

We have been regressing terribly for months and we didn't have that streak in cold weather, against playoff pitching. That game in Toronto showed exactly who the 2016 Orioles offense was. Bad.

To Frobby's point, I wouldn't say "bad". I would say average. Inconsistent. We could not have gotten 89 wins in the AL East with a bad offense. However, average is not good enough to put you over the top when your pitching is also average.