Update: O's sign Trumbo to 3yr/$37 mil deal

[Hallas]

So the O's offered 4 years.  My guess is backloaded $60M.  Real value probably in the 50-55M range.

I would consider this to be in line with his value going forward: 4@12-14M/year.  That pegs his value at roughly 6-7 wins over replacement over the course of the deal.

A minor point: if the Orioles find a competent fielder that isn't a lineup zero to fill his shoes in the outfield, then this is a pretty big win for the O's, and we are likely to get surplus value out of him.  If we can assume that he would hit close to the same level as a DH, and you assume that he's found his old form, then his potential baseline talent level goes from 2.2 WAR to 2.5 or 2.7 WAR.    At ~$8M a win, that level of production would be valued at around 20-22 million.  Compare this to the 2.2 WAR, where the production would be valued at around 17-19 million.  Even with some decline, we would probably get bonus value out of that deal.

Also consider that the deal would cover his age 31-34 seasons, so he's unlikely to hit a horrific decline during that time, barring major injury.  There's always the concern that, since he's already just a ML regular, any decline would drop him dangerously close to zero value, but it's a reasonable risk IMO.

Of course, any more than that, and the contract becomes dicey.

[El Gordo]

I'd much rather wait and offer Encarnacion  a fat two year deal.

[TradeAngelos]

This whole Trumbo thing is just classic Orioles, using Roch as their unofficial public relations employee to disperse "news" the way the team wants it to be reported. Earlier today it was "reported" that the Orioles had a "4 year offer made to Trumbo" and was framed like these were ongoing negotiations, they were close, they were really trying. Now one would think that with Roch having such impeccable bosse....I mean "sources" in the warehouse, he would have just a bit more detail. But it was fairly "vague" on the particulars.

Then the last few hours happened.

First we found out that it wasn't really a "4 year deal" it was 3 with a presumably very team friendly 4th year option, that would be very likely to not be hit.

Then it was reported that The "offer" was made weeks ago and there haven't really been many talks since.

THEN it was reported that the "offer" was for around 52-55m, and only can only assume backloaded to tilt to that 4th year option that if I were a betting man again, would be hard for Trumbo to hit. So in reality we were really taking about say 11m,13m,13m, (15-18m) or 3/35ish. A complete joke of an offer, solely made for the story that Roch wrote this morning, and nothing else. An offer that was probably laughed at, as usual.

I won't ever accuse them of not knowing how to manipulate the fans and media to win the PR battle as significant free agent, after significant free agent departs. (Yeah we re-signed Davis, that was our once in a 15 year big contract and I wouldn't hold my breath on a deal even remotely close to that one anytime soon. Numbers don't lie).

 

 

[gtown]

Might have been PR,  but keep in mind that there are a lot of us who would rather not see them shell out big bucks for Trumbo. Remember his value last offseason? The Mariners had to throw in a player with Trumbo to get Steve Clevenger. 

[Number5]

6 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

This whole Trumbo thing is just classic Orioles, using Roch as their unofficial public relations employee to disperse "news" the way the team wants it to be reported. Earlier today it was "reported" that the Orioles had a "4 year offer made to Trumbo" and was framed like these were ongoing negotiations, they were close, they were really trying. Now one would think that with Roch having such impeccable bosse....I mean "sources" in the warehouse, he would have just a bit more detail. But it was fairly "vague" on the particulars.

Then the last few hours happened.

First we found out that it wasn't really a "4 year deal" it was 3 with a presumably very team friendly 4th year option, that would be very likely to not be hit.

Then it was reported that The "offer" was made weeks ago and there haven't really been many talks since.

THEN it was reported that the "offer" was for around 52-55m, and only can only assume backloaded to tilt to that 4th year option that if I were a betting man again, would be hard for Trumbo to hit. So in reality we were really taking about say 11m,13m,13m, (15-18m) or 3/35ish. A complete joke of an offer, solely made for the story that Roch wrote this morning, and nothing else. An offer that was probably laughed at, as usual.

I won't ever accuse them of not knowing how to manipulate the fans and media to win the PR battle as significant free agent, after significant free agent departs. (Yeah we re-signed Davis, that was our once in a 15 year big contract and I wouldn't hold my breath on a deal even remotely close to that one anytime soon. Numbers don't lie).

 

 

I'm not sure that I understand your point.  Are you saying that the idea that the Orioles would offer 4/$70-75 to Trumbo makes sense and sounds good to you?  I'm sorry, but I really don't think that the majority of the fan base is upset at all by the fact that the Orioles aren't really making such an offer.  In fact, I'm quite sure that most of us are quite relieved.

[TradeAngelos]

12 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I'm not sure that I understand your point.  Are you saying that the idea that the Orioles would offer 4/$70-75 to Trumbo makes sense and sounds good to you?  I'm sorry, but I really don't think that the majority of the fan base is upset at all by the fact that the Orioles aren't really making such an offer.  In fact, I'm quite sure that most of us are quite relieved.

I'm not sure you understand that what the fans think or want means absolutely nothing, despite them always thinking they know what is best for the team. And thank the Lord for that.

And my point was the clearly scrubbed, misleading, info missing article from earlier being revised (detailed, including certain info that was purposely omitted etc) by national writers, not what the heck the fan want or think the team should do.

But what IS important to the team is making sure that they put out information that makes it look like a legitimate offer was made, when it wasn't. That is my point.

[MDtransplant757]

2 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

This is a disaster. 

Tell me about it. 

[Satyr3206]

As much as I like watching Trumbo hit dingers, what is DD smoking? Is his budget 200 mil now? There are much better ways to spend that money than on a one dimensional player.

[Number5]

6 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

As much as I like watching Trumbo hit dingers, what is DD smoking? Is his budget 200 mil now? There are much better ways to spend that money than on a one dimensional player.

What are you talking about?

[gtown]

Obviously there's a lot of PR coming out of every team. As for Angelos, I'm more concerned that he is telling DD to sign Trumbo. 

[Satyr3206]

Just now, Number5 said:

What are you talking about?

Let Trumbo walk and take the pick. A 3 or 4 year deal for him is stupid. IMO

[backwardsk]

13 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

I'm not sure you understand that what the fans think or want means absolutely nothing, despite them always thinking they know what is best for the team. And thank the Lord for that.

And my point was the clearly scrubbed, misleading, info missing article from earlier being revised (detailed, including certain info that was purposely omitted etc) by national writers, not what the heck the fan want or think the team should do.

But what IS important to the team is making sure that they put out information that makes it look like a legitimate offer was made, when it wasn't. That is my point.

You say that 3/35 is not a legitimate offer.  What team has offered him a "legitimate" offer at this point.  Why do you think Roch's target is the fans and not an attempt for the Mets to pick the Granderson talks?

[Number5]

15 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

I'm not sure you understand that what the fans think or want means absolutely nothing, despite them always thinking they know what is best for the team. And thank the Lord for that.

And my point was the clearly scrubbed, misleading, info missing article from earlier being revised (detailed, including certain info that was purposely omitted etc) by national writers, not what the heck the fan want or think the team should do.

But what IS important to the team is making sure that they put out information that makes it look like a legitimate offer was made, when it wasn't. That is my point.

What?

I was responding to your post.

[Number5]

2 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

Let Trumbo walk and take the pick. A 3 or 4 year deal for him is stupid. IMO

I think that perhaps you have misread something.

[Satyr3206]

5 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I think that perhaps you have misread something.

Just reading what has been reported. That the O's offer was in the 3 to 4 year range.