Make your best offer to Chris Tillman

[webbrick2010]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So what's your plan for filling that spot, and Ubaldo's?

Well thanks for asking... but alas it is too late for my plan

I would never have decimated the farm system. My plan was to trade:

1. Jim Johnson Jul 2013

2. Chris Davis Winter 2013

3. Darren O'day Jul 2015

4. Held onto Davies, Hader, etc.

and If those deal were done well, the O's could have a stable of young players ready to contribute at the ML level. I don't think there is anything that can be done but to continue to drive the bus over the cliff, hope for the best and be left with a broken franchise in 2019. Signing Tillman would just add an expensive 30 something pitcher to a bad roster.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Well thanks for asking... but alas it is too late for my plan

I would never have decimated the farm system. My plan was to trade:

1. Jim Johnson Jul 2013

2. Chris Davis Winter 2013

3. Darren O'day Jul 2015

4. Held onto Davies, Hader, etc.

and If those deal were done well, the O's could have a stable of young players ready to contribute at the ML level. I don't think there is anything that can be done but to continue to drive the bus over the cliff, hope for the best and be left with a broken franchise in 2019. Signing Tillman would just add an expensive 30 something pitcher to a bad roster.

I'd rather sign Tillman and then trade him if/when the team gets bad.  Of course, we could trade him right now and get something back.   

[webbrick2010]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

I'd rather sign Tillman and then trade him if/when the team gets bad.  Of course, we could trade him right now and get something back.   

I don't think we are trading or extending anyone until 2019. We are set on a course of attempting to make the wild card spot the next two years and then a massive re-build under a new FO beginning in 2019. The Davis contract was really stupid and it will hamstring the team for the next 3-5 years, O'day contract also bad. That was nearly 200 million that should have been used for Tillman, Britton, and Manny.

[Ohfan67]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

I actually don't know if he's the best we've got (Gausman may be about to surpass him and it wouldn't surprise me if Bundy did), 

Forget the future: Gausman was better than Tillman last year. If Gausman had Tillman's run support last year, then his wins would look much better and you wouldn't think "he pitched just well enough to lose" (I think that's how you critiqued Gausman last year). The eye test can fool everyone. In my opinion, the difference in Gausman's best day and his worst day was greater than the difference in Tillman's best and worst days (and probably within game variation too) and that makes people underestimate how good Gausman was last year. Gausman's best is MUCH higher than Tillman's best and I think that's more frustrating to fans and affects fan perception (the eye test). Their worst is probably about the same (although Tillman may have pitched more true stinkers in '16 than Gausman did). 

I like Tillman. It would be fun to see him continue as an Oriole. It's nice that he showed up for camp in Sarasota, although it sounds like he works out there almost every day so hanging out for an hour or two extra isn't exactly a big investment. He seems like a very good guy. Good teammate. But he is what he is as a pitcher. Over the last three or four years he ranks 25-50th best pitcher in baseball by most metrics. I think the Orioles should try to resign him, but they need to be very disciplined in their evaluation of Tillman's future value to the team. I am not under appreciating what he's done for the Orioles, but I am actively trying to avoid over estimating his potential contribution in the future. 

[weams]

15 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Well thanks for asking... but alas it is too late for my plan

I would never have decimated the farm system. My plan was to trade:

1. Jim Johnson Jul 2013

2. Chris Davis Winter 2013

3. Darren O'day Jul 2015

4. Held onto Davies, Hader, etc.

and If those deal were done well, the O's could have a stable of young players ready to contribute at the ML level. I don't think there is anything that can be done but to continue to drive the bus over the cliff, hope for the best and be left with a broken franchise in 2019. Signing Tillman would just add an expensive 30 something pitcher to a bad roster.

Totally hindsight and not doable at the times because the team needed to win and needed a chance to win the World Series. Injurys and aberrations prevented the later.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Totally hindsight and not doable at the times because the team needed to win and needed a chance to win the word series. Injurys and aberrations prevented the later.

Not sure you can say totally hindsight.  While I am not sure about webbrick specifically some of us did advocate making at least some of the listed moves, most notably trading Johnson and not trading for Parra.

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not sure you can say totally hindsight.  While I am not sure about webbrick specifically some of us did advocate making at least some of the listed moves, most notably trading Johnson and not trading for Parra.

Sure. I know you were for the trades.  But they were not viable at the time due to the 14 years of losing. The business model required some of those actions/inactions to prevent relocation to Montreal or San Juan. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

Sure. I know you were for the trades.  But they were not viable at the time due to the 14 years of losing. The business model required some of those actions/inactions to prevent relocation to Montreal or San Juan. 

I was for some of them.

I do think they could have sold trading Johnson to the fanbase and the Parra move had disaster written all over it.

And the team isn't going anywhere with Angelos as owner, you know that.

[webbrick2010]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Totally hindsight and not doable at the times because the team needed to win and needed a chance to win the World Series. Injurys and aberrations prevented the later.

Not hindsight at all as I was on record for wanting those trades at exactly those times, and I believe they were doable as none of those players have been particularly critical to the O's success.

Jim Johnson was bad in the second 1/2 of 2013 when the O's did not make the playoffs and then horrible in 2014

Chris Davis was suspended in 2014 and not available for the O's playoff run

Darren O'day wasn't needed to miss the playoffs in 2015 and was bad in 2016

Davies was traded for Parra that most recognized as a bad trade instantly

By the way I have beat the drums for trading Britton this winter, so in a year or two when we get much less or nothing for him it won't be hind sight

 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Sure. I know you were for the trades.  But they were not viable at the time due to the 14 years of losing. The business model required some of those actions/inactions to prevent relocation to Montreal or San Juan. 

That's a bit melodramatic.   But in any event, we're getting off the point.    Those transactions are water under the bridge.   The current situation is what it is.   So the question is, if you don't extend  Tillman, what are you planning to do to fill his and Ubaldo's spots in the rotation next year?   To me, all of the alternatives are worse than extending Tillman, in terms of risk/reward ratio.   

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was for some of them.

I do think they could have sold trading Johnson to the fanbase and the Parra move had disaster written all over it.

And the team isn't going anywhere with Angelos as owner, you know that.

Without some winning seasons? Ok. I do know you and others were right about many moves you would have or would not have made. Other moves others would have made or not made were also disasters.  We do have the benefit of history to rely on now. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That's a bit melodramatic.   But in any event, we're getting off the point.    Those transactions are water under the bridge.   The current situation is what it is.   So the question is, if you don't extend  Tillman, what are you planning to do to fill his and Ubaldo's spots in the rotation next year?   To me, all of the alternatives are worse than extending Tillman, in terms of risk/reward ratio.   

I can see that being true if we know for sure that extending Tillman won't cause other moves to be made to pay for Tillman's contract.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I can see that being true if we know for sure that extending Tillman won't cause other moves to be made to pay for Tillman's contract.

Admittedly, I don't know if that's the case or not.   

[webbrick2010]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That's a bit melodramatic.   But in any event, we're getting off the point.    Those transactions are water under the bridge.   The current situation is what it is.   So the question is, if you don't extend  Tillman, what are you planning to do to fill his and Ubaldo's spots in the rotation next year?   To me, all of the alternatives are worse than extending Tillman, in terms of risk/reward ratio.   

Well I think you invest in your player development system and fill out your ML roster with 1 year stop gap siginings... ala Joe Saunders, Vance Worley, Bartolo Colon, etc.. and not be afraid to use your young pitchers like an Ariel Miranda who clearly out pitched Wade Miley last year.

It's not a pretty situation that this franchise is about to confront. We didn't get to the edge of the cliff over night and it will take time to get back to a sustainable winning franchise. Giving guys that are just not that good (Tillman) 5 year contracts won't get us there (IMHO).

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Well I think you invest in your player development system and fill out your ML roster with 1 year stop gap siginings... ala Joe Saunders, Vance Worley, Bartolo Colon, etc.. and not be afraid to use your young pitchers like an Ariel Miranda who clearly out pitched Wade Miley last year.

It's not a pretty situation that this franchise is about to confront. We didn't get to the edge of the cliff over night and it will take time to get back to a sustainable winning franchise. Giving guys that are just not that good (Tillman) 5 year contracts won't get us there (IMHO).

2016 FIP/xFIP:

Miranda- 5.25/5.06

Miley- 4.45/4.04

I wouldn't say he clearly outpitched Miley.  Frobby might, he doesn't like FIP all that much.