Fangraphs poll: O's fans pessimistic?

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I guess my point is, its baseball, good teams on paper don't always win, and sometimes poor teams on paper win.

Look at the 1983 team, probably the weakest Oriole team to be a WS trophy holder.

This is why, I don't put a ton of eyes forward to the future, and why I tried to explain to Corn about my thoughts on how some people dis proportionally worry too much about what if down the road.

 

It's not like it was a surprise that the '83 team was a WS contender.   They'd been an excellent team for many years, including '82 when they lost the division title on the final day.   

Anyway, I'm distracting from your point.    Yes, I agree baseball is unpredictable and things don't always turn out as expected.   But that doesn't stop me from worrying about our expiring contracts and weak farm system.    We're going to need to catch some breaks with our young players once 2019 rolls around.

[BohKnowsBmore]

6 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Well when you at your computer you can watch or listen by going to http://sports.cbslocal.com/show/105-7-the-fan/

 

Trying to pimp your appearances I see...

[Enjoy Terror]

I personally find it hard to get excited about a team that hasn't really upgraded itself meaningfully, and the minor leagues don't have many rising stars.

Our key changes are replacing Pedro Alvarez with Seth Smith, Wieters with Castillo, and Gallardo with Miley.

Our success relies on the improvement of Bundy and Gausman and no one slipping.

[theobird]

14 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

I personally find it hard to get excited about a team that hasn't really upgraded itself meaningfully, and the minor leagues don't have many rising stars.

Our key changes are replacing Pedro Alvarez with Seth Smith, Wieters with Castillo, and Gallardo with Miley.

Our success relies on the improvement of Bundy and Gausman and no one slipping.

I totally agree. I do not think any objective analysis can say that the Orioles improved in any meaningful way this offseason. It will all come down to the Starting pitching. If both Gausman and Bundy pitch up to their talent and Miley and Ubaldo are decent, we could be in the running. If not, I would say the sale should start at the trade deadline.

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 hours ago, theobird said:

I totally agree. I do not think any objective analysis can say that the Orioles improved in any meaningful way this offseason. It will all come down to the Starting pitching. If both Gausman and Bundy pitch up to their talent and Miley and Ubaldo are decent, we could be in the running. If not, I would say the sale should start at the trade deadline.

I like the addition of Seth Smith.  Full season of Bundy aint nothing either.

They also haven't lost many meaningful pieces. 

[Frobby]

So we're no better than the team that won 89 games last year?    There are worse fates.    I think it comes down to whether the starting pitching is better, worse or the same as last year.    It certainly has the potential to be better, even though it's mostly the same personnel.    

[backwardsk]

Did Toronto get better this offseason?

[theobird]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

Did Toronto get better this offseason?

No. But the Red Sox and the Yankee's most certainly did. And I think Tampa did as well. It doesn't mean that much, but if the Orioles pitching takes a few steps forward we will be ok. And with this group, that is certainly possible.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, backwardsk said:

Did Toronto get better this offseason?

I'm not sure how that matters

 

what matters more is the pitching taking the next step getting 180-200 innings of mid 3 from Tillman , Gausman, Bundy and the good Ulbaldo would be huge 

 

figuring how to manufacture runs would be helpfully 

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, theobird said:

No. But the Red Sox and the Yankee's most certainly did. And I think Tampa did as well. It doesn't mean that much, but if the Orioles pitching takes a few steps forward we will be ok. And with this group, that is certainly possible.

It's all about the pitching.     

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, theobird said:

No. But the Red Sox and the Yankee's most certainly did. And I think Tampa did as well. It doesn't mean that much, but if the Orioles pitching takes a few steps forward we will be ok. And with this group, that is certainly possible.

Have the Red Sox really improved that much?  Obviously they'll be the favored.  But they are replacing Ortiz and Shaw with Moreland and ? Sandoval? That's a big downgrade.  Yes, they have Sale, but that pushes out Wright.  The Red Sox were 15-9 in his starts.  Are they really going to get that big of a bump with Sale.

The Yankees organization is in a lot better shape than they were this time last year.  But will that translate to 2017 wins?  I don't see the pitching.

I definitely agree that the Orioles pitching is the key.  Health is the biggest factor.  We're in better shape this year than last.  Besides the pitching, it doesn't take too much of leap that Davis, Jones, and possibly Hardy and Schoop have better seasons.

I am not in the pessimistic bucket.

[Frobby]

The thing about the Yankees is that they way over performed their  Pythag last year.    They could be a better team and not win as many games.    Also, I'm waiting to see if Sanchez is for real, or a crazy fluke.    

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The thing about the Yankees is that they way over performed their  Pythag last year.    They could be a better team and not win as many games.    Also, I'm waiting to see if Sanchez is for real, or a crazy fluke.    

Have to expect Frazier gets the call at some point.  They have plenty of other guys on the farm as well.

[backwardsk]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Have to expect Frazier gets the call at some point.  They have plenty of other guys on the farm as well.

Can they punt Ellsbury's $90M?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, backwardsk said:

Can they punt Ellsbury's $90M?

I don't think Ellsbury is going to force Frazier to spend the whole year at AAA.  They'll find at bats for him.