Orioles smarter than Yanks

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

There's a strong possibility that the O's win now strategy could change very soon. If the team falters early this or next season, then DD would be able to make some incredible trades. Pretty much any decent GM could get a huge haul of young players and prospects for Machado, Britton, Brach, etc., and there would be a ton of salary money available in 18 and 19. To me the ultimate quality of DD's tenure (and the end of the Peter Angelos era) is all about the next 28 months or so. The Orioles are in a position to jump start a rebuild in the next year and a half or so. It will be interesting to see if Angelos is willing to do it. 

It's an easy decision "if the team falters early," as you say.    Not so easy if we're in the hunt.    I think my biggest fear this season is that we'll be right at .500 at the trade deadline.    

[25 Nuggets]

11 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

I fear that when DD is done we will be in "hell" mode.

Embrace it, and...

[FlipTheBird]

43 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

The difference between best and worst farm system is a handful of trades. The White Sox are evidence of this. 

The Orioles don't make trades for prospects; the last one I can recall was Bedard. The Orioles farm system is in dire straits because we've been in "buy mode" since Dan got here. We've not seen Dan in "sell mode" and I'm not sure he's ever been in it. I suspect that under Dan we won't ever see Sell Mode.

This is accurate. The heavy focus on "Top" prospects allows system rankings to drastically change in as few as 2 trades.

[Just Regular]

54 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

There's a strong possibility that the O's win now strategy could change very soon. If the team falters early this or next season, then DD would be able to make some incredible trades. Pretty much any decent GM could get a huge haul of young players and prospects for Machado, Britton, Brach, etc., and there would be a ton of salary money available in 18 and 19. To me the ultimate quality of DD's tenure (and the end of the Peter Angelos era) is all about the next 28 months or so. The Orioles are in a position to jump start a rebuild in the next year and a half or so. It will be interesting to see if Angelos is willing to do it. 

I imagine zero chance for a Machado trade this year, but if the 2018 team falters so badly a Machado trade is necessary, a pleasant notion to contemplate is if we could pull a Bordick, and resign him right after a July trade, so the 2019 Orioles enjoy FA Manny and whatever he brings from 2018's buyer.

I predict we will remain in playoff contention through 2018 though - it's hard not to be with him as a centerpiece and two wildcards.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

This is accurate. The heavy focus on "Top" prospects allows system rankings to drastically change in as few as 2 trades.

The goal is to have a good team and a farm system that can sustain that team's success.    Sure, we could probably have a good farm system if we traded away every good player on the Orioles.    That's not really the objective.    But it may be the best option if the team heads south.   

You'd like to be in a position where there are enough good young players to replace older players who either get too expensive or decline to the point where they're not even average.    The simple fact is, we can't pay everyone at FA prices until they're 35 years old.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The goal is to have a good team and a farm system that can sustain that team's success.    Sure, we could probably have a good farm system if we traded away every good player on the Orioles.    That's not really the objective.    But it may be the best option if the team heads south.   

You'd like to be in a position where there are enough good young players to replace older players who either get too expensive or decline to the point where they're not even average.    The simple fact is, we can't pay everyone at FA prices until they're 35 years old.

That is the ideal certainly.  But each team has a unique situation which is going to cause them weigh more heavily one side of the equation or the other. 

Except maybe the Cardinals, they same to be able to do both at the same time. 

[weams]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

It doesn't matter if the system was shot or not.    DD's been in charge  of the draft and the farm system for five years.    He owns it.    There's no blaming past administrations if our farm system is substandard now.    

I have to agree. Of course, one might say that his job was to bring a winning MLB team to the Orioles, and one of the currencies he used to do that was the farm.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is the ideal certainly.  But each team has a unique situation which is going to cause them weigh more heavily one side of the equation or the other. 

Except maybe the Cardinals, they same to be able to do both at the same time. 

The Red Sox have done a good job over the years.    And yes, I recognize that they finished last in 2012, 2014 and 2015, with a dominant WS champ improbably sandwiched in between.    But I think if you look at their track record, they've won a lot and their farm system has produced a lot.   Earlier this winter I did a thread where I looked at all the draft picks in our division in the 21st Century, and Boston had by far the best results, despite being a good team (hence getting lower picks) for most of that time.    We've been the worst, or close.    But we've had a fortunate confluence of some good trades, some good pickups and a few high picks who turned out well.   But now that group is getting older/expensive and the MiL talent is thin.    

[LC_O's_87]

DD has done a better job of managing the dynamic of win now while maintaining future flexibility than the Phillies' front office.

Of course circumstances, like when a player will hit FA, comes into play.  It's also clear that despite the Orioles' consistent success the last 5 years, they have not reached the heights of the Phillies from 2007 - 2011, two pennants and a ring w/ 5 straight playoff appearances.

That said, Duquette has not burdened the team with albatross contracts which will extend well beyond the team's competitive window.  The lone exception is maybe Chris Davis and that's an open question.

Tougher to rebuild with a depleted farm system AND a 25 man roster replete with aging vets on expensive contracts.

The O's have some talent at the lower farm levels which COULD pan out and they have the ability to trade away key pieces  over the next 2 years if things go south.

I'd say DD has done a pretty good job within the confines of ownership and the nature of the roster he had.  Has he made some bad calls....yes. Impossible not to over 6 years but, I still like the balance he has kept between win now and long term flexibility.  Fault him for the farm system if you want, but like a previous poster said, if you aren't able to shell out millions for Int'l Free Agents, and don't trade away MLB players for prospects it can be tough to keep that farm system producing MLB level talent every season.

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The Red Sox have done a good job over the years.    And yes, I recognize that they finished last in 2012, 2014 and 2015, with a dominant WS champ improbably sandwiched in between.    But I think if you look at their track record, they've won a lot and their farm system has produced a lot.   Earlier this winter I did a thread where I looked at all the draft picks in our division in the 21st Century, and Boston had by far the best results, despite being a good team (hence getting lower picks) for most of that time.    We've been the worst, or close.    But we've had a fortunate confluence of some good trades, some good pickups and a few high picks who turned out well.   But now that group is getting older/expensive and the MiL talent is thin.    

It's a good strategy for a top two profit, market, team. Also, steroids and Ortiz. 

[LC_O's_87]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The Red Sox have done a good job over the years.    And yes, I recognize that they finished last in 2012, 2014 and 2015, with a dominant WS champ improbably sandwiched in between.    But I think if you look at their track record, they've won a lot and their farm system has produced a lot.   Earlier this winter I did a thread where I looked at all the draft picks in our division in the 21st Century, and Boston had by far the best results, despite being a good team (hence getting lower picks) for most of that time.    We've been the worst, or close.    But we've had a fortunate confluence of some good trades, some good pickups and a few high picks who turned out well.   But now that group is getting older/expensive and the MiL talent is thin.    

It helps when you can bid on Moncada, Devers and miss on a Castillo to supplement your draft picks.

 

[weams]

4 minutes ago, LC_O's_87 said:

It helps when you can bid on Moncada, Devers and miss on a Castillo to supplement your draft picks.

 

They got slapped on the wrist for their illegal international dealings, but yeah, they parleyed tons of cash into international talent pools. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, LC_O's_87 said:

It helps when you can bid on Moncada, Devers and miss on a Castillo to supplement your draft picks.

 

It does help.    But to be clear, my analysis only involved the draft, not the other guys Boston picked up by amateur signings.    That just adds to it.    

The market has changed a lot in recent years, with limits on draft spending, the competitive balance picks, limits on international spending and the changes in penalties for signing free agents.    

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, weams said:

They got slapped on the wrist for their illegal international dealings, but yeah, they parleyed tons of cash into international talent pools. 

It was a harder slap than the Cardinals received for a much more serious offense.

[Number5]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

The Red Sox have done a good job over the years.    And yes, I recognize that they finished last in 2012, 2014 and 2015, with a dominant WS champ improbably sandwiched in between.    But I think if you look at their track record, they've won a lot and their farm system has produced a lot.   Earlier this winter I did a thread where I looked at all the draft picks in our division in the 21st Century, and Boston had by far the best results, despite being a good team (hence getting lower picks) for most of that time.    We've been the worst, or close.    But we've had a fortunate confluence of some good trades, some good pickups and a few high picks who turned out well.   But now that group is getting older/expensive and the MiL talent is thin.    

I think that perhaps you are understating the multiple last place finishes just a bit.

1.  By definition, that is not sustained winning.

2.  They received high draft picks as a result.

They also received an improbable and astounding $270 million bail-out from the Dodgers.  Now, one might give the Red Sox credit and say it was a brilliant move, but it seems more like blind luck of running into a team at just the right time that thought they had unlimited funds and massively misjudged the talents of Crawford, Beckett, and Gonzalez.  Only Gonzalez came close to panning out, and even in his case, the salary cost has been huge.  The odds of any team being fortunate enough to off-load their mistake huge contracts like that again are pretty much nonexistent.