If you could trade Mancini, what type of player would you want in exchange?

[Number5]

21 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Wouldn't he be in the same situation in Cleveland as here?  Blocked by a 1B and DH?

I don't believe he would be blocked beyond this year, as he is in Baltimore, but I'm not all that familiar with Cleveland's roster status.

[ELMERO]

6 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

That would be a great addition to the O's, not sure why Cleveland would do it

Well, my thinking was The Cleveland Indians went to the World Series with the OFers currently on their roster, sans Coco Crisp, but with Michael Brantley, possibly returning.  Also, DH/1B Carlos Santana is a FA in 2018.  More than likely, Encarnacion, would take over DH duties and their best MiL 1B prospect is probably a couple of years away.  Greg Allen is their 4th rated OF prospect, so I would presume he might be expendable.

[ArtVanDelay]

18 hours ago, Number5 said:

I suppose mainly because Mancini is the superior player.  Other than that, couldn't say.

Not sure how you could possibly think that.  Allen is a good defensive CF, so he's vastly superior to Mancini defensively.  He OPS'd .830 between A+ and AA last year, which is fantastic for a CF.  He had a .416 OBP and had the same amount of walks as Ks.  He stole 45 bases. 

The only thing Mancini has over him is power.  It seems that Allen is significantly more valuable and it's not close. 

[Number5]

2 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Not sure how you could possibly think that.  Allen is a good defensive CF, so he's vastly superior to Mancini defensively.  He OPS'd .830 between A+ and AA last year, which is fantastic for a CF.  He had a .416 OBP and had the same amount of walks as Ks.  He stole 45 bases. 

The only thing Mancini has over him is power.  It seems that Allen is significantly more valuable and it's not close. 

Well, I actually looked at both players' records.  That would be how I could possibly think that. 

[ArtVanDelay]

17 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Well, I actually looked at both players' records.  That would be how I could possibly think that. 

Strong argument here. 

[Number5]

11 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Strong argument here. 

Just sayin'.  Maybe you should try it.  Stating that Mancini's only plus tool is his power makes it very clear that you haven't.  Maybe we should wait and see how Allen performs in more than a month in AA before we anoint him as the next Willie Mays.  I would suppose that perhaps the Indians would be interested in a superior hitter that is closer to MLB-ready and plays a position that would appear to make him less blocked in Cleveland than the player they trade him for.  Don't know for sure though, but there is every reason to think that it is a possibility.  The Orioles may well consider such a deal because of the fact that Mancini is blocked for the next three years in Baltimore.  Allen plays a position of need for the Orioles.  The Orioles would definitely have to make another move to get a right-handed bat into the lineup when Smith sits if they made such a trade, though, since Allen isn't yet ready for the big leagues.  You're welcome to close your mind to it if you wish, though.

[ArtVanDelay]

15 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Just sayin'.  Maybe you should try it.  Stating that Mancini's only plus tool is his power makes it very clear that you haven't.  Maybe we should wait and see how Allen performs in more than a month in AA before we anoint him as the next Willie Mays.  I would suppose that perhaps the Indians would be interested in a superior hitter that is closer to MLB-ready and plays a position that would appear to make him less blocked in Cleveland than the player they trade him for.  Don't know for sure though, but there is every reason to think that it is a possibility.  The Orioles may well consider such a deal because of the fact that Mancini is blocked for the next three years in Baltimore.  Allen plays a position of need for the Orioles.  The Orioles would definitely have to make another move to get a right-handed bat into the lineup when Smith sits if they made such a trade, though, since Allen isn't yet ready for the big leagues.  You're welcome to close your mind to it if you wish, though.

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Just sayin'.  Maybe you should try it.

Weird.  I thought I was the one who actually provided facts for my argument.

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Stating that Mancini's only plus tool is his power makes it very clear that you haven't.

So Tony hasn't done any research either?  I read his scouting reports.  Power is the only plus tool, and it plays average in game.  Name another plus tool, I'll wait.

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 Maybe we should wait and see how Allen performs in more than a month in AA before we anoint him as the next Willie Mays.

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I would suppose that perhaps the Indians would be interested in a superior hitter that is closer to MLB-ready and plays a position that would appear to make him less blocked in Cleveland than the player they trade him for.  Don't know for sure though, but there is every reason to think that it is a possibility.  The Orioles may well consider such a deal because of the fact that Mancini is blocked for the next three years in Baltimore.  Allen plays a position of need for the Orioles.  The Orioles would definitely have to make another move to get a right-handed bat into the lineup when Smith sits if they made such a trade, though, since Allen isn't yet ready for the big leagues.  You're welcome to close your mind to it if you wish, though.

It just doesn't make sense at all from Cleveland's perspective.  Didn't they just sign Edwin Encarnacion?

Obviously Mancini is the better hitter.  He's a first baseman, he should probably be a better hitter than a CF.  But Allen hit pretty well in his own right.  He put up a 139 wRC+ in A+ and 138 in 174 PAs in AA,  124 wRC+ in 2015.  If he sticks in center and becomes a league-average hitter in the big leagues, he has a ton of value because of his speed and defense.  Mancini basically has to be an outstanding hitter to have any value at all.   

Also, I'm not sure Mancini is much closer to MLB ready than Allen.  I'm sure both will see the bigs in 2017.

[Frobby]

I'd want some scouting input before considering a Mancini for Allen deal.    There are a lot of high OBP, low SLG guys whose OBP's don't translate to the majors.    The defensive component also would be important -- is Allen a plus outfielder?

[ArtVanDelay]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'd want some scouting input before considering a Mancini for Allen deal.    There are a lot of high OBP, low SLG guys whose OBP's don't translate to the majors.    The defensive component also would be important -- is Allen a plus outfielder?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-18-prospects-cleveland-indians/

50/55 fielding grade, 60/60 throwing arm. 

[Frobby]

Sickels has Greg Allen #131 on his top 200 list, with Mancini in at 179.

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The more I study Greg Allen, the more I like him. If he looks good in spring training, he could move up into the B+s on the next version of this list.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/2/13/14598358/top-200-mlb-prospects-for-2017-minor-league-ball

BP has him as the Indians' no. 5 prospect.   

Overall, I'd probably do this trade.    But I am not sure the Indians would.

[Number5]

1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Weird.  I thought I was the one who actually provided facts for my argument.

So Tony hasn't done any research either?  I read his scouting reports.  Power is the only plus tool, and it plays average in game.  Name another plus tool, I'll wait.

It just doesn't make sense at all from Cleveland's perspective.  Didn't they just sign Edwin Encarnacion?

Obviously Mancini is the better hitter.  He's a first baseman, he should probably be a better hitter than a CF.  But Allen hit pretty well in his own right.  He put up a 139 wRC+ in A+ and 138 in 174 PAs in AA,  124 wRC+ in 2015.  If he sticks in center and becomes a league-average hitter in the big leagues, he has a ton of value because of his speed and defense.  Mancini basically has to be an outstanding hitter to have any value at all.   

Also, I'm not sure Mancini is much closer to MLB ready than Allen.  I'm sure both will see the bigs in 2017.

Santana is a FA next off-season.  Cleveland certainly seems to have numerous outfielders between Allen and playing time in the majors.  Not so much at 1B/DH. 

Mancini has proven to be a good on base guy.  Why would you claim otherwise?  Yes, Tony has Mancini lower than most other folks do.  Maybe he's right.  Maybe he's wrong.  Tony knows far more than I, but I don't think he would ever claim to always be right.  We can find various scouts/reporters/experts that have varying opinions about different players.  Not sure how that makes Mancini a non-prospect.  BA has Mancini 5th in an admittedly weak system, with only 1 in the top 100, at #57.  Cleveland has 3 in the top 100, with #3 at #68.  They have Allen at #10 for Cleveland.  Based on that, there is certainly no reason to claim Allen is far and away the better player and Cleveland would never consider a trade.

Mancini has already reached the majors, and didn't lay an egg in his very SSS cup of coffee.  He has been successful at both AA and AAA.  Allen has played 37 games in AA.  That is a fact, btw, no matter how much you may wish to poke fun at me for pointing it out.  He showed well in that SSS, other than stolen base percentage.  I suppose it is possible that he sees a September call-up this year, but I wouldn't say it is a foregone conclusion.  He needs to succeed at AA, and then AAA first, in all likelihood, and he is projected per RosterResource to first appear in the majors in late 2018. 

You are welcome to your opinion, but I see no reason to assert that such a trade is ridiculous and that "it is not even close."  Prospect for prospect trades are pretty rare.  For that reason, we are talking about something that is very unlikely.  The talent level of the two players and the rosters and needs of the two teams make this particular trade something that I think could happen.

[POR]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Just sayin'.  Maybe you should try it.  Stating that Mancini's only plus tool is his power makes it very clear that you haven't.  Maybe we should wait and see how Allen performs in more than a month in AA before we anoint him as the next Willie Mays.  I would suppose that perhaps the Indians would be interested in a superior hitter that is closer to MLB-ready and plays a position that would appear to make him less blocked in Cleveland than the player they trade him for.  Don't know for sure though, but there is every reason to think that it is a possibility.  The Orioles may well consider such a deal because of the fact that Mancini is blocked for the next three years in Baltimore.  Allen plays a position of need for the Orioles.  The Orioles would definitely have to make another move to get a right-handed bat into the lineup when Smith sits if they made such a trade, though, since Allen isn't yet ready for the big leagues.  You're welcome to close your mind to it if you wish, though.

The Indians with Santana and Encarnacion certainly have no immediate need for at 1B or DH.

Without specifically discussing Allen and Mancini, compare how much Adam Eaton a good defensive outfielder with little power cost for the Nationals to acquire. Then look at how long it took for free agent hitters that primarily play 1B or DH to sign and how little they got.  Chris Carter with his NL leading 41 homer last year got three million.  Adam Lind got one million with a club option.  Pedro Alvarez is still looking for a home.

There was a thread a few weeks ago about Billy Hamilton where you seemed to want to ignore how valuable outfield defense is.  There are just a much greater supply of 1B / DH types than there are good defensive outfielders. I am sure the Orioles would love to trade Mancini for Allen I doubt the Indians would have any interest. 

 

[POR]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sickels has Greg Allen #131 on his top 200 list, with Mancini in at 179.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/2/13/14598358/top-200-mlb-prospects-for-2017-minor-league-ball

BP has him as the Indians' no. 5 prospect.   

Overall, I'd probably do this trade.    But I am not sure the Indians would.

The Indians also have Bobby Bradley, who is a 1st basemen that is #65 on Sickels list.  Brown is probably a couple years away.  

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, POR said:

The Indians with Santana and Encarnacion certainly have no immediate need for at 1B or DH.

Without specifically discussing Allen and Mancini, compare how much Adam Eaton a good defensive outfielder with little power cost for the Nationals to acquire. Then look at how long it took for free agent hitters that primarily play 1B or DH to sign and how little they got.  Chris Carter with his NL leading 41 homer last year got three million.  Adam Lind got one million with a club option.  Pedro Alvarez is still looking for a home.

There was a thread a few weeks ago about Billy Hamilton where you seemed to want to ignore how valuable outfield defense is.  There are just a much greater supply of 1B / DH types than there are good defensive outfielders. I am sure the Orioles would love to trade Mancini for Allen I doubt the Indians would have any interest. 

 

Billy Hamilton is probably the single most overrated player in baseball, IMO.  Not necessarily by the teams, by the way, but by fans.  Hard to think of a serious challenger.  I don't expect you to agree.  The very fact that you brought him up makes it clear that you don't.  That is OK.  Your opinion is as good as mine.

I do not undervalue outfield defense.  Far from it.  I think the defensive metrics are off, notoriously so for outfielders, and many mistakes are made as a result.  The Heyward contract comes to mind.  The wild swings in how the metrics rate so many players from season to season seems to bear this out, unless you think it makes sense that a player plays excellent defense one year, totally forgets how to play the next, then plays average the third year, and gets back to being fantastic in year four.  Hitting is going to have its swings like that.  Defense?  Not so much.  Again, I don't expect that you would agree.  There are many very real baseball strategies, situations, and plays that are completely ignored and/or disregarded in the metrics.  Knowing when to go for the catch and when to let it drop are vital to winning baseball.  The metrics treat every situation the same.  Adam Jones and Nick Markakis are getting older, and their defense isn't what it once was, but when both were very good outfielders, the metrics had them well below where trained, experienced people rated them.

Allen's apparent defensive abilities, and the Orioles' outfield shortage, are the only reasons that a trade such as the one being discussed here should even be considered by Baltimore.  Going strictly by offense, there is nothing to discuss.  I am not the one ignoring anything.

[MDtransplant757]

I'd try for an SP like Hammel or someone akin to that.