Pedro back. (Will he opt out?)

[FlipTheBird]

32 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That's ok.   That is not a reason to keep him.    Kim is barely getting any AB's and that's who he'd likely replace.   Are you going to sit Mancini, Trumbo, Smith, Jones, to get Alvarez more AB's.    If you want to play Alvarez against all RHP, one of those guys is going to lose a lot of his current role or all of them are going to lose a little.

Agreed. With everyone healthy and Alvarez firmly a DH-only guy (all reports indicate that he has bombed in RF), there's just no place for the dude. The only configuration I can think of would be Smith in left, Trumbo in right (since we know Buck isn't going to sit him) and Alvarez DHing against right-handed pitchers... And that just doesn't seem like it's going to happen.

[PaulFolk]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree with that.   But weighing the OF defensive problems vs the offense's problems I think I would take the improved offense  It can cover a lot of other problems.   Pedro replacing Kim seems like an overall upgrade to the team to me. 

Replacing Kim in the token "guy who rots on the bench and never gets to play" role? I don't think it would really move the needle.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree with that.   But weighing the OF defensive problems vs the offense's problems I think I would take the improved offense  It can cover a lot of other problems.   

I don't think so.    First of all, I'm not really sure there is an offensive "problem," as opposed to an offensive blip.    As of May 20, the O's were averaging 4.78 runs/game, and I believe they were 4th in the league in runs/game at that point.   Then they went into a 9-game tailspin where they scored 23 runs in 9 games.   Hopefully yesterday's game signifies the end of that tailspin, but even if not, I expect ups and downs during a season and it's important not to overreact during down periods.

Second of all, to me the main causes of the tailspin were the slumps by Manny and Davis.    Pedro Alvarez isn't going to fix that.    

And on a related point, citing total runs scored can lead to a misleading picture, since there is a wide variance in the number of games teams have played.    Tampa has played 56 games, the Twins have played 49, the Orioles have played 51.    That's why I always try to cite runs/game rather than total runs.     In this case, the difference is not that meaningful -- the O's have scored 4.49 runs/game, which is 9th in the league (league average is 4.55), whereas they are 10th in total runs.   But sometimes it makes a lot of difference -- e.g., the Twins are 7th in runs/game but 13th in total runs.

To put the O's performance into context, last year they averaged 4.59 runs compared to a league average of 4.52.      The difference from last year to this year is very small and could be erased with 1-2 hot games.    So I just don't think the offense is really much different from what I expected, and to judge them at a low point in the ebb and flow of a season is a mistake IMO.    Last May they averaged 4.07 runs/game, then in June they averaged 6.61.    It's the nature of the game.   

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don't think so.    First of all, I'm not really sure there is an offensive "problem," as opposed to an offensive blip.    As of May 20, the O's were averaging 4.78 runs/game, and I believe they were 4th in the league in runs/game at that point.   Then they went into a 9-game tailspin where they scored 23 runs in 9 games.   Hopefully yesterday's game signifies the end of that tailspin, but even if not, I expect ups and downs during a season and it's important not to overreact during down periods.

Second of all, to me the main causes of the tailspin were the slumps by Manny and Davis.    Pedro Alvarez isn't going to fix that.    

And on a related point, citing total runs scored can lead to a misleading picture, since there is a wide variance in the number of games teams have played.    Tampa has played 56 games, the Twins have played 49, the Orioles have played 51.    That's why I always try to cite runs/game rather than total runs.     In this case, the difference is not that meaningful -- the O's have scored 4.49 runs/game, which is 9th in the league (league average is 4.55), whereas they are 10th in total runs.   But sometimes it makes a lot of difference -- e.g., the Twins are 7th in runs/game but 13th in total runs.

To put the O's performance into context, last year they averaged 4.59 runs compared to a league average of 4.52.      The difference from last year to this year is very small and could be erased with 1-2 hot games.    So I just don't think the offense is really much different from what I expected, and to judge them at a low point in the ebb and flow of a season is a mistake IMO.    Last May they averaged 4.07 runs/game, then in June they averaged 6.61.    It's the nature of the game.   

Could you please share the link that shows that the O's were 4th in runs per game on May 20th?

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Could you please share the link that shows that the O's were 4th in runs per game on May 20th?

I clearly said "I believe" they were 4th at the time, so I'm relying on memory, not a link.    But do you doubt that 4.78 runs/game ranked 4th?  Right now, it would rank 5th, behind Texas at 4.80.    If I felt like it, I could look at the game logs of every AL team and reconstruct what each team was averaging as of May 20, but that hardly seems worthwhile.    Texas, FWIW, was at  4.77 as of May 20, and thus behind the Orioles.   

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I clearly said "I believe" they were 4th at the time, so I'm relying on memory, not a link.    But do you doubt that 4.78 runs/game ranked 4th?  Right now, it would rank 5th, behind Texas at 4.80.    If I felt like it, I could look at the game logs of every AL team and reconstruct what each team was averaging as of May 20, but that hardly seems worthwhile.    Texas, FWIW, was at  4.77 as of May 20, and thus behind the Orioles.   

How about the link for the runs/game on May 20?

[LookitsPuck]

The O's have a league average offense and a well below average rotation and an erratic bullpen.

So, yeah, bring him up. The offense can make the shortcomings of the rotation less of an issue.

[FlipTheBird]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

How about the link for the runs/game on May 20?

This link would suggest that the O's were 6th in the AL in runs per game (man, the National League is scoring in bunches this year) on May 20.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runs-per-game?date=2017-05-20

Down to 9th in AL as of today.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runs-per-game?date=2017-06-01

[FlipTheBird]

8 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

The O's have a league average offense and a well below average rotation and an erratic bullpen.

So, yeah, bring him up. The offense can make the shortcomings of the rotation less of an issue.

The question remains - where does he play? When does he play?

And, yes, you have to take into account Buck's own proclivities. So no saying things like "platoon him with Trumbo," etc.

[FlipTheBird]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

How about the link for the runs/game on May 20?

And FYI - same source says 4th in the AL on May 21.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runs-per-game?date=2017-05-21

Naturally, given that it's still relatively early in the year, teams change spots a fair bit.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

And FYI - same source says 4th in the AL on May 21.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runs-per-game?date=2017-05-21

Naturally, given that it's still relatively early in the year, teams change spots a fair bit.

Nice site.  Thanks

The site shows that on May 9th when the O's were 22-11 ( their high point of the season) they had runs per game of 4.45.

On May 31st they have runs per game on 4.38. 

Both those numbers reflect the O's problems scoring runs and show a more realistic picture than the May 20th  4.72.  That just reflects the 8 runs vs the KC and the 13 runs vs the Tigers which is not maintainable.  

So the O's do need help on offense which is a good reason to consider adding Pedro.

[LookitsPuck]

14 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

The question remains - where does he play? When does he play?

And, yes, you have to take into account Buck's own proclivities. So no saying things like "platoon him with Trumbo," etc.

DH and that's pretty much it. With some/limited appearances in RF. Unfortunately this means that Duquette would have to trade Kim or send Rickard down. And unfortunately Buck wouldn't send Rickard down...so looks like Kim would have to be traded.

Ways to get him playing time:

• Platoon w/ Trumbo once a week
• Give Seth Smith time off in RF
• PH

You figure he could get 6-8 AB a week just by PHing, another 4 spelling Trumbo and another 4 giving Seth some time off.

All in, you're looking at at least 12-16 AB a week depending on length of games and how early he comes in as a PH.

Of course this doesn't solve our "too many DHs" problem in the OF. Rickard, Mancini, Smith, Trumbo, Davis, Kim and Alvarez are all below average defensive outfielders. So, yeah, that'd be an issue.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

DH and that's pretty much it. With some/limited appearances in RF. Unfortunately this means that Duquette would have to trade Kim or send Rickard down. And unfortunately Buck wouldn't send Rickard down...so looks like Kim would have to be traded.

Ways to get him playing time:

• Platoon w/ Trumbo once a week
• Give Seth Smith time off in RF
• PH

You figure he could get 6-8 AB a week just by PHing, another 4 spelling Trumbo and another 4 giving Seth some time off.

All in, you're looking at at least 12-16 AB a week depending on length of games and how early he comes in as a PH.

Of course this doesn't solve our "too many DHs" problem in the OF. Rickard, Mancini, Smith, Trumbo, Davis, Kim and Alvarez are all below average defensive outfielders. So, yeah, that'd be an issue.

Who is he going to PH for?  You know it won't be Hardy.

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who is he going to PH for?  You know it won't be Hardy.

That's for sure.

The only viable option is if they think he can play left field as effectively as Kim. if they do then they can DFA Kim and try and trade him and bring him up. Rickard hasn't been very good this year overall, but I shutter to think who would play center field for Jones if he got dinged up or needed a day off. Plus the team still needs him to play against lefties.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

How about the link for the runs/game on May 20?

You can do this on BB-ref by going to the team's "batting log" page and clicking on the first and last game that you want to calculate, and it will give you the sum.    Here's the batting log page for the Orioles: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/tgl.cgi?team=BAL&t=b&year=2017.  If you click on the first game and May 20, you'll see we had scored 196 runs in 41 games, which is 4.78 runs/game, as of May 20.