The window is a myth

[Phantom]

So the window is a myth...

 

...if everything goes right.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not saying the Red Sox don't have a good team and a good farm system.   The Jays are very competitive with the O's. The Yanks have a long way to go but are building.  All this post in meant to do is say that the window that is much talked about is something the O's can deal with.   With key moves that we can all discuss that O's have a path forward to be a competitive team past 2018.  

If you have great insight into the other teams go ahead and add it to the discussion.

The Yanks do not have a long way to go.  They have a slammin' farm system and should be under the luxury tax threshold which will allow them to fill any holes with the projected ridiculousness of the 2018 FA class.

I expect them to be a very good team in two years.

[Tx Oriole]

49 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If the O's can maintain a 160m payroll, (and it appears they can) then they can keep enough core players to continue their 5 years of success in the AL East into the future.  There are three essential contracts that need to happen make the window go away.  1) extend Buck, 2) extend Dan, and  sign Manny.   All need to happen his coming off season.  All three look doable.

Yes, even a 10/300 Manny's extension is doable.  That is mainly because Dan continues to churn the roster.  Let some high salaried players go.  Find good players in  what is thought to be a poor farm system while making use of the Rule 5 draft and smart, cheap acquisitions.  This all happens because the network that Buck and Dan have built.  The know people throughout baseball.  They seek advice.  Find value in players that others let go. 

The O's may have 50m coming off the book this fall:

Jimenez 13.5m

Britton  11.5m

Miley 8.75

Smith 7m

Castillo 6m

Kim  4.2m

Total Gone - 50.95m

Certain things have to happen to allow these players to go and not hurt the O's.  1) They have to find two starters out of Ynoa, Aquino and Lee,   2) Mancini and Rickard needs to show he can take over corner outfield spots,   3) Sisco needs to show he is ready to be a front line catcher.  All those things are in the realm of possibility and Buck and Dan will be trying to make them happen with development of young players this year.   I expect all these players will see time in the majors this year to prepare them for their roles next year.

Britton will need to be traded this off season.  He is gone after 2018 anyway.  With Boras as his agent he is going through the free agent process.  He will be unaffordable for the O's.  Chapman got 5/86m.   The O''s are not going there.  Not with Brach, O'Day, Givens, Hart, Nuno, Liranzo in  the organization.  Brach should be able to be extended pretty reasonably.  3/21m or so.  They need to trade Britton to get a decent return.  A good, young 3B would help so they can move Manny to SS in the future.

Castillo can opt to stay and the O's have the money to keep him.  But he could opt out and go for bigger contract.  I think this season will be a great opportunity for him to leverage himself for a future contract.

Why do I think the O's can afford Manny?  Just look at next years payroll:

1) Davis 23m - 1B

2) Manny  20m - 3B  10/300m with a 5 year opt out

3) Jones 17m - CF Extend for 3 years at 17 per

4) Tillman 17m  - SP1 - extend 3/51m plus a invest option

5)  Trumbo -12.5m -DH

6) O'Day 9m - RP1

7) Schoop 8m - 2B

8) Hardy 7m - SS - Let go FA and resign 1/7m

9) Gausman 6m - SP2

10) Brach 5m - RP2 extend  3/21

11) Flaherty  2m - UIF resign

12) Gentry 2m -OF resign

13) Nuno 2m - RP3 

14) Bundy 1.8m - SP3

15) Joseph 1m -BC

16) Rickard .5m - LF

17) Givens .5m - RP4

18) Hart .5m - RP5

19) Ynoa .5m - SP4

20) Sisco .5m - C

21) Aquino .5m  - SP5

22) Wilson .5m - RP6

23) Liranzo .5m - RP7

24) Mullins .5m - OF

25) Mancini .5m -RF

Total 2018 Payroll 138.3M

138m gives the O's about 20m to cover any holes that occur.  And when Manny's salary goes to 30m there is still room with the way Dan works a roster.   I am not worried about the window.  It seems to me that the O's can afford Manny.  And if that is true with Gausman and Bundy stepping up there is no reason should not be able to continue there winning ways. 

 

 

I hope all that happens. 

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not  asking you to comment an further if you don't want to but the window is a big issue that hangs over the O's future.  It has been much talked about.   I think its appropriate to address it when a scenario can be made that it is not really an issue.

I think it is not a foregone conclusion that our window will close.     Things will be a lot clearer at the end of this year.  

[sportsfan8703]

To be fair to the OP, he traded Britton and didn't list players coming back for him. I would expect a SP and OF to at least come back in that deal. Plus no mention of Santander. These are potentially 3-4 more guys/prospects that could be contributors at the league min for a long time. 

Window extenders:

Rickard

Mancini

Sisco

Santander

Harvey, Sedlock

Liranzo, Scott, Chichton

Any of the depth SPs in AAA

Prospects

Let's face it, we are going to have to be more top heavy than a Baywatch Pam Anderson.  So we need these window extenders to produce and be cheap. There is hope. 

 

[24fps]

For unbelievers windows can be myths or unfortunate facts of life.  For believers in windows, they're self-fulfilling prophecies.

[Machado13]

I have come to the realization that so long as the nationals are in the DMV and a contending team, the Angelos family will do whatever it takes to remain competitive. 

The Nats move is a double edged sword. It shrunk the orioles reach and geographical market but it has also made Angelos stay on his toes in terms of putting a competitive, quality product on the field.

[El Gordo]

Everything changes in 2018-19 FA. The MFY will plenty of money to spend . And signing Manny is a pipe dream.

[Aristotelian]

I agree to some extent. Re-signing Manny by itself could keep the O's competitive for a long time. The biggest near term needs I don't see addressed anywhere are OF and SS/3B. Even if we sign Manny, JJ cannot last forever. He seems to be on his last legs already. There is no prospect in sight to take his place or to play 3B if Manny shifts to SS. OF is very weak as well. Rickard and Mullins have promise but we don't have anyone with superstar ceilings like Betts, Pederson, etc.

[Camden_yardbird]

Suataining the window is entirely dependent on sustaining a minor league pipeline.  Dan is right when he says the Orioles farm system has been underrated.  The Orioles dont compete over the last 5 years if its really barren.  But thats got to keep rolling and the mistake contracts (Jimenez) and the mistake trades (Hader) have to be minimalized.

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree to some extent. Re-signing Manny by itself could keep the O's competitive for a long time. The biggest near term needs I don't see addressed anywhere are OF and SS/3B. Even if we sign Manny, JJ cannot last forever. He seems to be on his last legs already. There is no prospect in sight to take his place or to play 3B if Manny shifts to SS. OF is very weak as well. Rickard and Mullins have promise but we don't have anyone with superstar ceilings like Betts, Pederson, etc.

Manny is no Trout and look where the Angels are.

It takes more than one guy.

[MDtransplant757]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Manny is no Trout and look where the Angels are.

It takes more than one guy.

That it does. But having Machado wouldn't hurt

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think it is not a foregone conclusion that our window will close.     Things will be a lot clearer at the end of this year.  

Sure.  But I have not seen a scenario like this posted.  Thought is was worthy of discusion

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree to some extent. Re-signing Manny by itself could keep the O's competitive for a long time. The biggest near term needs I don't see addressed anywhere are OF and SS/3B. Even if we sign Manny, JJ cannot last forever. He seems to be on his last legs already. There is no prospect in sight to take his place or to play 3B if Manny shifts to SS. OF is very weak as well. Rickard and Mullins have promise but we don't have anyone with superstar ceilings like Betts, Pederson, etc.

I put in the OP that a young 3B would be good to get back for Britton. I hope they look for another young starter as well in the deal.

We will have to see how Rickard and Mancini develop this year in the outfield.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

Slight nitpick, but Schoop at $8M seems high after making 3.7 this year.

And by the way, our window closed after 2015.  ?

So you are saying I projected the 2018 payroll too high.  I like that.