How has Gausman gotten this screwed up?

[Camden_yardbird]

Let's look at what the stats can tell us:

Speed:  we can dispose of this being the reason right away.  Gausman may actually be throwing the ball harder.  That may straighten out pitches though.  His average FB has been 95 mph, up from 94.7.

Pitch Selection:  there are some interesting trends here.  Gausman has thrown his FB more (66.8% from 60.8%) and his slider more (15.6% from 13.3).  This has come at a small expense of his change up which is a near negligible throw percentage below 2% and a big decrease in his splitter (17.3% from 21.3%).  From this you might hypothesize that they were taking away a good pitch.  But his splitter actually went from a good pitch last year to a bad pitch this year.

So the league has figured him out right?

Not necessarily.  He is not giving up harder contact with only a 2% increase in hard contact.  Hitters are swinging a lot less at his pitches outside the zone (28.3% O-Swing rate from 34.3%)  Which has lead to an increase in walks.  Hitters are also making more contact with his out of zone pitches (65% to 72%) so he is not getting strikeouts with balls outside the zone.

If I look at his stats I would say that it probably has a lot to do with location, location, location.  He has lost a little of a lot of good things that are adding up to a lot of bad outings and the catcher and pitching coaches don't seem to know how to tune him up.

[eddie83]

50 minutes ago, Tbone83 said:

We can argue numbers, but the bottom line is that Jake and Kevin both have talent and potential, but neither has/was able to harness it over a sustained period in Baltimore. Yes, Gausman had a nice stretch last year. But he had struggles before that and is massively struggling this year. 

Gausman had 3 solid seasons. Was he an ace, no he wasn't. It isn't like he only had 1 decent season. 

[webbrick2010]

Well the good news for Gausman is that as soon as he get's out of the O's organization he will win a Cy Young. That should keep him going during his Oriole purgatory.

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Well the good news for Gausman is that as soon as he get's out of the O's organization he will win a Cy Young. That should keep him going during his Oriole purgatory.

Other than Arrieta who has taken off elsewhere?  

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

Revolving door of pitching coaches.

Piss poor slider. No fastball command. Have to feel somebody screwed with his mechanics. 

Also doesn't help that Castillo isn't a great framer. That's the least of Gausman's problems, though.

Castillo has less than zero to do with Gausman's issues this year. He's been pretty bad with Caleb catching him as well this year. Saying that, the team does pitch better with Caleb catching than Castillo this year.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

No.  There are so many actual busts out there that someone like Gausman doesn't qualify.  A bust would be Billy Rowell or Matt Hobgood.

That's your definition of the word bust. As an overall #4 pick, his expectations are very high! I wouldn't necessarily call him a bust since he's provided some major league value already in his career, but he certainly is nowhere near what the Orioles thought he would become when they took him that high.

Saying that, it appears his draft was pretty weak for starting pitching with only Marcus Strohman (7.7), Lance McCullers (6.2) (HS) and Alex Wood (9 WAR) (2nd rd) having put up more WAR than Gausman (5.6) as a pitcher in the major leagues among players drafted that season in first 4 rounds.

[LookitsPuck]

57 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Castillo has less than zero to do with Gausman's issues this year. He's been pretty bad with Caleb catching him as well this year. Saying that, the team does pitch better with Caleb catching than Castillo this year.

Less than zero is a bit over the top. Castillo is a poor pitch framer...so he's not helping Gausman who traditionally nibbles and is around the plate.

[FlipTheBird]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Less than zero is a bit over the top. Castillo is a poor pitch framer...so he's not helping Gausman who traditionally nibbles and is around the plate.

Well, given that this is what Wieters was so often derided for... has Gausman really experienced much of a change from 2016 to 2017?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Castillo has less than zero to do with Gausman's issues this year. He's been pretty bad with Caleb catching him as well this year. Saying that, the team does pitch better with Caleb catching than Castillo this year.

I wouldn't put much stock in CERA, there's too much noise, especially over 30 starts or so each.     Their numbers were about even as of Friday, then Welington caught the last two games and his numbers went kablooey.

[osfan83]

3 hours ago, Tbone83 said:

We can argue numbers, but the bottom line is that Jake and Kevin both have talent and potential, but neither has/was able to harness it over a sustained period in Baltimore. Yes, Gausman had a nice stretch last year. But he had struggles before that and is massively struggling this year. 

Why did we let the same guys, who could not develop Jake, take on the job of developing Kevin?

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn't put much stock in CERA, there's too much noise, especially over 30 starts or so each.     Their numbers were about even as of Friday, then Welington caught the last two games and his numbers went kablooey.

I don't put a ton of stock in it unless it's consistent. 

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Less than zero is a bit over the top. Castillo is a poor pitch framer...so he's not helping Gausman who traditionally nibbles and is around the plate.

Ok, that may be over the top a bit I agree, but I don't think a few calls here an there is the reason why Gausman is stinking up the joint this year. I do believe in pitch framing a bit, but even if you believe Castillo has lost -1.11 calls per game because of his pitch calling, that's not enough to be major effect of Gausman's struggles. BTW, Joseph is one of the best and has gotten about 0.93 calls a game in his favor. Gausman still has 5+ ERA with him catching.

I think pitch framing can have some effect, but it's not a major effect on a pitcher who has struggled no matter who is catching.

[LookitsPuck]

20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, that may be over the top a bit I agree, but I don't think a few calls here an there is the reason why Gausman is stinking up the joint this year. I do believe in pitch framing a bit, but even if you believe Castillo has lost -1.11 calls per game because of his pitch calling, that's not enough to be major effect of Gausman's struggles. BTW, Joseph is one of the best and has gotten about 0.93 calls a game in his favor. Gausman still has 5+ ERA with him catching.

I think pitch framing can have some effect, but it's not a major effect on a pitcher who has struggled no matter who is catching.

Mostly agree with all of this.

Gausman's control is the biggest issue here. And I wish I knew why. Hit rate up dramatically as is his walk rate. And his strikeouts have taken a dip. That's basically screaming he's giving in when behind in the count and then falls apart/gets flustered/loses confidence and all hell breaks loose.

[Going Underground]

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, that may be over the top a bit I agree, but I don't think a few calls here an there is the reason why Gausman is stinking up the joint this year. I do believe in pitch framing a bit, but even if you believe Castillo has lost -1.11 calls per game because of his pitch calling, that's not enough to be major effect of Gausman's struggles. BTW, Joseph is one of the best and has gotten about 0.93 calls a game in his favor. Gausman still has 5+ ERA with him catching.

I think pitch framing can have some effect, but it's not a major effect on a pitcher who has struggled no matter who is catching.

You are only as good as your pitchers. Washington has the second best starter ERA in the majors. I think they would be good no matter who was catching. The Nats are six in overall ERA because their bullpen is not good. It is not like the catcher forgets to call a good game after the starter leaves.

[sportsfan8703]

98 hits in 69.1 IP.  He's not getting squeezed on the corners.  He's getting rocked.  Hitters have a .919 OPS vs him this season.  .332 batting average.  He's turning every hitter he faces into a triple crown candidate.