Its decision time for the future

[wildcard]

Its pretty obvious that without better starting pitching the O's are going nowhere.  Its also obvious that there is no starting pitching in the upper minors that is going to help the starting pitching. There are about 5 week before the trade deadline.  This time should be used to determine who can and should be signed long term and who should be traded to get starting pitching.

1) Britton - Should be back the first week on July.  If he prove healthy he should be traded if Boras is intent on follow his normal path on taking Britton to Free Agency.   His value should be high with two pennant races of value left for anyone that acquires him. Acquiring starting pitching should be the focus on any Britton trade.

2) Buck and Dan - O's ownership should determine if they are going to extend both managers in the next month.   Any long term negotiation with Manny or any other player will be made easier if it is known whether Buck and Dan will stay past 2018.

3) Manny - The O's should open serious negotiation with Manny's agent now.   The O's need to determine what kind on a contract will be required to sign him long term.   If there is a contract that the O's can afford they should go ahead and sign him now.   If not they should make him available for trade before the deadline. It will take a lot to acquire Manny so the O's need to determine if a deadline trade nets more value than an off season deal if he can't be signed by the O's.

4) Castillo -  The O's should determine in the next 5 weeks if they are going to extend him.  He can walk after the season ends.   Sisco is not controlling the running game at Norfolk.  He does not look like a starting catcher for that reason right now.   So it would be desirable to sign Castillo for two more years if possible.  If they can't he should be traded prior to the deadline.

5) Smith - Is hitting well and may help a contender.  If the O's can get a decent prospect for him he should be traded.  He is 34.  The O's have several up and coming outfielders in AA and A ball that could be in the majors next year.   Getting a prospect for Smith is more important than keeping him through this season or extending him.

 6) Kim - If he can bring back a good prospect trade him.

I would not trade Brach, Davis, Trumbo, O'Day or Jones now.   The above 6 items are more than enough to accomplish prior to the deadline. The same goes for extensions to Schoop or anyone else.   I would wait to see what the O's can acquire and what the impact is on the payroll before making other moves.

 

[SteveA]

Castillo has a player option that he could exercise, but it's likely he won't, and will opt for free agency.

[DirtyBird]

Items 4 thru 6 are nothing but half-measures that would make absolutely no impact on re-tooling the organization.

 

Brach has to be in play.

Schoop has to be in play.

We have to be willing to move guys with high trade value.

[allquixotic]

I would trade Bundy and Gausman for as many prospects as we can get in return, too. Their years with the Orioles, if successful, will be wasted if we have no other good pitchers on the staff to win games alongside them. And losing 3 out of every 5 games reliably is no way to run a ball club.

Trade them and maximize the prospect return. I expect us to need to cut nearly every failed prospect we have right now to make room for the guys we haul back from our fire sale ASAP.

[DirtyBird]

I'm fine with moving Jones too. Give me an OF of Mancini, Mullins, Hays next year.

[maybenxtyr]

There's not a player on this team that should not be available for trade. They don't have any "elite" untouchable in my opinion. Because of contracts there are several guys that we know for sure will be here next year.

[Tx Oriole]

8 minutes ago, allquixotic said:

I would trade Bundy and Gausman for as many prospects as we can get in return, too. Their years with the Orioles, if successful, will be wasted if we have no other good pitchers on the staff to win games alongside them. And losing 3 out of every 5 games reliably is no way to run a ball club.

Trade them and maximize the prospect return. I expect us to need to cut nearly every failed prospect we have right now to make room for the guys we haul back from our fire sale ASAP.

I agree with you. But there is a bug in the ointment. The owner probably won't allow DD to trade those two pitchers. I want to keep Manny. But if he wants some outlandish contract then bye Manny. I do wish ownership would realize just how bad this team is and do the right thing. Sell and not buy. Handcuff DD to a desk. Don't let him do anything stupid. 

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Items 4 thru 6 are nothing but half-measures that would make absolutely no impact on re-tooling the organization.

 

Brach has to be in play.

Schoop has to be in play.

We have to be willing to move guys with high trade value.

I don't agree

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, allquixotic said:

I would trade Bundy and Gausman for as many prospects as we can get in return, too. Their years with the Orioles, if successful, will be wasted if we have no other good pitchers on the staff to win games alongside them. And losing 3 out of every 5 games reliably is no way to run a ball club.

Trade them and maximize the prospect return. I expect us to need to cut nearly every failed prospect we have right now to make room for the guys we haul back from our fire sale ASAP.

Sounds like cutting  off your nose to spite your face.  The O's need starting pitching.  Bundy and Gausman are keeper.  McDowell fate is tied to Guasman's improvement.

[glenn__davis]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I would not trade Brach, Davis, Trumbo, O'Day or Jones now.   The above 6 items are more than enough to accomplish prior to the deadline. The same goes for extensions to Schoop or anyone else.   I would wait to see what the O's can acquire and what the impact is on the payroll before making other moves.

Brach probably is the only guy you listed who has much value.  Teams may like Jones, but his contract and role on our team means he has more value to us than he would to anyone else.  None of the others are going to bring back anything of significance.

I don't see much reason to rush it at this point.  I'm watching 4 guys.  If Gausman/Tillman/Machado/Britton can come back and produce like expected they would, this team can compete.  If they can't, pull the plug.  I'd give them about 3 more weeks.

[DirtyBird]

Just now, wildcard said:

I don't agree

What kind of prospects do you think we would get for Kim, Smith and Castillo for half a season?

[Ripken]

Huge fire sale time.  Everyone can go for the right return.  Start over.  Please.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Brach probably is the only guy you listed who has much value.  Teams may like Jones, but his contract and role on our team means he has more value to us than he would to anyone else.  None of the others are going to bring back anything of significance.

I don't see much reason to rush it at this point.  I'm watching 4 guys.  If Gausman/Tillman/Machado/Britton can come back and produce like expected they would, this team can compete.  If they can't, pull the plug.  I'd give them about 3 more weeks.

Bundy arm is getting fatigued.  He probably needs to move to he pen for a while.   

Gausman has untapped potential.

Tillman is a high risk player now.   His arm strength is not good enough to have an effective out pitch.   Will he come back?  No likely without rest and rehab.

The outlook for starting pitching for the rest of the year is bleak.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What kind of prospects do you think we would get for Kim, Smith and Castillo for half a season?

That's Dan job.   He weighs if the return is worth the trade.

Anything Dan gets probably has more value than what these players will have to the O's next year if they walk.

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

There's not a player on this team that should not be available for trade. They don't have any "elite" untouchable in my opinion. Because of contracts there are several guys that we know for sure will be here next year.

Good concept but that in not the way teams are built.  They decide while players to build around and which players to trade.