Its decision time for the future

[glenn__davis]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Bundy arm is getting fatigued.  He probably needs to move to he pen for a while.   

Gausman has untapped potential.

Tillman is a high risk player now.   His arm strength is not good enough to have an effective out pitch.   Will he come back?  No likely without rest and rehab.

The outlook for starting pitching for the rest of the year is bleak.

I'm not convinced that Bundy's arm is fatigued.  I think he hasn't been pitching very well.  There's not always a reason for it beyond that.

I certainly agree that the starting pitching outlook is bleak.  

I'd be all about a rebuild and if it were up to me that's the way we'd go.  I follow the minors very closely so it would be nice to have a good infusion of young talent.  But the Orioles clearly are not going to go in that direction unless they absolutely have to.  If the 4 guys I mentioned pick it up, they still have a chance to contend.  Just don't see a need to make the decision now as opposed to 3 weeks from now.  No one's trade value is likely to go down in  that timeframe.

[DirtyBird]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That's Dan job.   He weighs if the return is worth the trade.

Anything Dan gets probably has more value than what these players will have to the O's next year if they walk.

 

Well we gave up Yovanni Gallardo for a full year of Seth Smith. What do you suppose a team would give up for a half season of him? And how would that return help the organization?

Smith probably falls in the middle of the three in terms of trade value, behind Castillo and ahead of Kim.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I'm not convinced that Bundy's arm is fatigued.  I think he hasn't been pitching very well.  There's not always a reason for it beyond that.

I certainly agree that the starting pitching outlook is bleak.  

I'd be all about a rebuild and if it were up to me that's the way we'd go.  I follow the minors very closely so it would be nice to have a good infusion of young talent.  But the Orioles clearly are not going to go in that direction unless they absolutely have to.  If the 4 guys I mentioned pick it up, they still have a chance to contend.  Just don't see a need to make the decision now as opposed to 3 weeks from now.  No one's trade value is likely to go down in  that timeframe.

So you are going to open contract discussions with Manny's agent on July 15th?  First question he is going to ask is how long is Buck going to stay.   And your trying to find out what is takes to keep Manny at the same time there is an all out effort to get the best value for Britton. 

Better start talks to Buck and Dan now about their future.  And it wouldn't hurt to know what Manny and his agent are thinking before the Britton's trade talks get hot and heavy.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I'm not convinced that Bundy's arm is fatigued.  I think he hasn't been pitching very well.  There's not always a reason for it beyond that.

I certainly agree that the starting pitching outlook is bleak.  

I'd be all about a rebuild and if it were up to me that's the way we'd go.  I follow the minors very closely so it would be nice to have a good infusion of young talent.  But the Orioles clearly are not going to go in that direction unless they absolutely have to.  If the 4 guys I mentioned pick it up, they still have a chance to contend.  Just don't see a need to make the decision now as opposed to 3 weeks from now.  No one's trade value is likely to go down in  that timeframe.

Bundy is following the same path he had last year.  Both years he moves into the rotation.  Pitching great, then good, then has command problems.   He knows how to pitch and has great stuff as long as he arm is not fatigued. But he hasn't build up his  arm strength to the point of having stamina for the whole year.  He probably needs a break about now.   Lessen his load for a few weeks and he might rebound for a while.

[MDK02]

What a disaster of a season. The worst part is, our ownership won't sell no matter what it seems. 

[glenn__davis]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So you are going to open contract discussions with Manny's agent on July 15th?  First question he is going to ask is how long is Buck going to stay.   And your trying to find out what is takes to keep Manny at the same time there is an all out effort to get the best value for Britton. 

Better start talks to Buck and Dan now about their future.  And it wouldn't hurt to know what Manny and his agent are thinking before the Britton's trade talks get hot and heavy.

I'm sure they've had talks with Manny's agent and have at least a vague idea of what his number is by this point.  

[clapdiddy]

The only way this team should become a buyer is if it somehow goes on a miraculous run of sorts.   There are 34 games left until the trade deadline.    Let's say they go on a 20-14 run over those 34 games and the starting pitching somehow looks a little more respectable.  Do we still sell?

Personally, I don't see it happening.   This team is capable of going on a good run if everyone comes back healthy, though.

 

[Aristotelian]

I would trade Trumbo just for salary relief. We are going to need $$ to either extend Manny or sign a SS. Manny will still have value at this time next year. Would only trade him for a Bregman level prospect.

[Sessh]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

1) Britton - Should be back the first week on July.  If he prove healthy he should be traded if Boras is intent on follow his normal path on taking Britton to Free Agency.   His value should be high with two pennant races of value left for anyone that acquires him. Acquiring starting pitching should be the focus on any Britton trade.

2) Buck and Dan - O's ownership should determine if they are going to extend both managers in the next month.   Any long term negotiation with Manny or any other player will be made easier if it is known whether Buck and Dan will stay past 2018.

3) Manny - The O's should open serious negotiation with Manny's agent now.   The O's need to determine what kind on a contract will be required to sign him long term.   If there is a contract that the O's can afford they should go ahead and sign him now.   If not they should make him available for trade before the deadline. It will take a lot to acquire Manny so the O's need to determine if a deadline trade nets more value than an off season deal if he can't be signed by the O's.

4) Castillo -  The O's should determine in the next 5 weeks if they are going to extend him.  He can walk after the season ends.   Sisco is not controlling the running game at Norfolk.  He does not look like a starting catcher for that reason right now.   So it would be desirable to sign Castillo for two more years if possible.  If they can't he should be traded prior to the deadline.

5) Smith - Is hitting well and may help a contender.  If the O's can get a decent prospect for him he should be traded.  He is 34.  The O's have several up and coming outfielders in AA and A ball that could be in the majors next year.   Getting a prospect for Smith is more important than keeping him through this season or extending him.

 6) Kim - If he can bring back a good prospect trade him.

I would not trade Brach, Davis, Trumbo, O'Day or Jones now.   The above 6 items are more than enough to accomplish prior to the deadline. The same goes for extensions to Schoop or anyone else.   I would wait to see what the O's can acquire and what the impact is on the payroll before making other moves.

 

This is half assed. It's half rebuiild and half going for it. If this team is going to rebuild, it has to be ALL the way in and that means all players must be available. That doesn't mean everyone is traded, but the goal is to get the best deal for any and everyone you can get that type of deal for. Everyone must be available and offers must be listened to. The system is so bad that a strategy like this will only lead to a longer period of losing. It has to be all in or none in. None of this "line straddling" stuff. Go out and get all the best prospects you can get, spend the next few years figuring out what you've got and THEN decide which of them to build around which likely would open new trade options. This team needs to tear it all down and start over and that includes the two people most responsible (aside from the old geezer) for this mess; Duquette and Showalter. I really wish people would get off Buck's nuts around here. He is JUST AS RESPONSIBLE for this as Duquette is, period.

1. Correct.

2. Both need to go. Why would any long term deal be made easier if they know who's going to be here? The only thing they will need to know is they will be on a rebuilding club that won't be winning for awhile. You assume that any of these players WANT to play under Buck for their next contract. Maybe they don't. It is highly unlikely they have the same love affair for him as some fans do.

3. Determine what kind of contract? You don't think the Orioles already know this information? I bet they've known that information for years now. The Orioles had their chance to sign him long term and blew it. Time to think about the organization and do what needs to be done. Signing Manny to some ridiculous contract is the antithesis of that.

4,5 and 6. Barely anything. Kim hasn't been given enough playing time (especially against lefties) to bring anything significant back in a trade which is all Buck's fault. Castillo could bring back one nice prospect and Smith could bring back a decent A or AA piece, but again, this is an incomplete plan. Brach, Davis, Trumbo, Jones, O'Day, Bundy, Gausman and especially Schoop should ALL be available and ALL offers listened to. Take the best ones even if it means dealing them all though this doesn't have to happen. What does have to happen is that they are all made available to be made offers for and we need to listen to them.

Of course, I know it'll never happen because neither DD or Buck give a damn about what state they leave this organization in. All they care about is how they look individually and Angelos doesn't care about winning a championship nor does anyone involved with the Orioles even know what it takes to build an organization that produces a team that can. The Orioles can be counted on to do the wrong thing every time and be too slow in coming to conclusions that were completely obvious several years beforehand. There isn't anyone in this FO capable of recognizing when hard decisions need to be made and why they need to be made let alone know how to make the right decision for the organization's future. You think DD or Buck care if the Orioles enter another 10 years of losing after they leave? I don't. Their actions say that crystal clearly. Look at what they've done to this organization's farm system together and look at how little this team has accomplished in the postseason in exchange for it. 

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, MDK02 said:

What a disaster of a season. The worst part is, our ownership won't sell no matter what it seems. 

Won't sell the team or won't trade veterans to improve the team? Oh, right. Won't do either one.  

[weams]

Trade all of them. But wait until July 15. 

[Babypowder]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Bundy is following the same path he had last year.  Both years he moves into the rotation.  Pitching great, then good, then has command problems.   He knows how to pitch and has great stuff as long as he arm is not fatigued. But he hasn't build up his  arm strength to the point of having stamina for the whole year.  He probably needs a break about now.   Lessen his load for a few weeks and he might rebound for a while.

Not really. Even when Bundy's ERA looked good this year, compared to last year his velocity was down, strikeout rate was down, swinging strike rate was down, and fly ball rate was up.

[Lucky_13]

I think Schoop, Mancini, and Bundy are the guys you build around. Everyone else you put on the block. I'd keep Jones because you need a veteran guy to lead what will  be a young team. Buck can stay if he wants. 

[MDtransplant757]

Hypothetically, if we sell on smith; does that mean that Mullins or Yastrzemski come up? 

[Aristotelian]

Just now, MDtransplant757 said:

Hypothetically, if we sell on smith; does that mean that Mullins or Yastrzemski come up? 

No it just means Kim gets ABs. Let those guys continue to develop. Especially Mullins. Don't want to start his service clock prematurely.