Building the 2018 team

[ChuckS]

This thread is mis-titled. 

We should be talking about building the 2020 team.  Trying to build a 2018 team is what will ruin us long term.  A repeat of 1999/2000 era Orioles.  

[weams]

10 hours ago, El Gordo said:

I'd say it's more than a coincidence. With PA came micro managing and cronyism that eroded the system.

Hard to argue with that. 

[weams]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

It's so hard to know how pitchers will perform.    Chen, Gonzalez and Hammel all produced sub 4.50 ERA's in 2012 and cost a fraction of what Ubaldo cost.   There's a fair amount of random luck involved at times.     

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hammeja01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzami03.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chenwe02.shtml

 

Pitching is very fickle. 

[sportsfan8703]

We just don't have that much flexibility. We need 3 SP's, SS, and RF next year. Earlier in the thread I broke down who was coming back and their arb numbers and we were already at 110ish million. 

Next year is all about finding SP. No pitch, No win. 

Pitchng goals for the rest of the season,

• Develop a third pitch for Gausman. 
• Dont let Bundy increase his innings too much. Keep him fresh and healthy. 
• Find a SP for 2018 out of Aquino, Ynoa, Wright, etc....

[Ohfan67]

37 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We just don't have that much flexibility. We need 3 SP's, SS, and RF next year. Earlier in the thread I broke down who was coming back and their arb numbers and we were already at 110ish million. 

Next year is all about finding SP. No pitch, No win. 

Pitchng goals for the rest of the season,

• Develop a third pitch for Gausman. 
• Dont let Bundy increase his innings too much. Keep him fresh and healthy. 
• Find a SP for 2018 out of Aquino, Ynoa, Wright, etc....

I'm sure the Orioles will bring in a new starting pitcher or even two or three before next season. It is unlikely to be a pitcher acquisition that the OH will applaud, but there will be a FA signing or two and DD or whoever is running the show will pick up some additional AAAA types too. 

[Can_of_corn]

9 hours ago, eddie83 said:

You are that down on developing everyone?

 

The comment was directed at the posters here

 

[Cumberbundy]

On July 7, 2017 at 6:25 AM, eddie83 said:

I am going to go with the assumption Manny is not dealt. Even if this season was going well they had to know going into next year that 3 spots were open in the rotation for 2018. 

The position player needs are SS, C and a corner OF spot. By far the biggest need to me is SS. Sisco is close and even if he isn't ready by the start of the season he should be soon after. We have no answers for SS unless Manny is moved over and they find a 3rd basemen. FA doesn't offer much. Who knows how good Hays will wind up being  but at least he is on the climb for OF down the road. 

I know around $60M is off the books but then after raises and arbitration that will eat some away. That said we should have some money. 

C -Joseph, ?

1B- Davis 

2nd- Schoop

SS -????

3rd -Manny

RF -Mancini unless moved to LF

CF -Jones

LF -???

DH-Trumbo 

Bench could have Rickard again with a new utility IF. 

SP

Gausman

Bundy 

3 Open spots 

RP

Britton

Brach

O'Day

Givens

Hart

Bleier

Castro 

The pen is the best healthy 7 I have seen this year. I believe Acquino is out of options so he would have to be in the running for some spot in the pen or as a number 5 starter. 

To me here is a golden opportunity to deal a guy like Britton to help fill some of the needs of this team. Brach as a possibility as well. Obviously not having one or both for 2018 hurts next season but it isn't a death sentence either. I don't see ownership blowing things up too dramatically and right or wrong I think they will try to compete next year. I keep thinking about the Dodgers. Big market team, no title since 1988, deep farm system. A 2 year combination of Britton and Jansen would be a monster. That team has been on the doorstep for years. They are built to win now. Certainly can deal pieces like Smith, Castillo, and Kim for small parts but if we want to really do something and at the same time not blow it up all the way Britton is the key.  I know he just got back from injury but he has some time here to show what he can do. I really hope ownership wakes up and sees the opportunity to strike here. Brach would get some talent back as well no question, but not as much. 

Agreed, been saying it for a month, let's get some young talent and keep developing what we've got. Freeman playing 3rd for Atl, I'd like to see Davis playing 3rd and Manny playing Ss the resting the year just to see what each looks like, it's a great opportunity to invest this years games in our future. Easy enough to move them back and it's much easier to get another OF than an inf. 

[Cumberbundy]

We need the bullpen to be put in position to rack up great numbers right out of the break, use them heavily and hope they dominate, not many days to audition left. 

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

The comment was directed at the posters here

 

Gotcha. 

[eddie83]

9 hours ago, ChuckS said:

This thread is mis-titled. 

We should be talking about building the 2020 team.  Trying to build a 2018 team is what will ruin us long term.  A repeat of 1999/2000 era Orioles.  

I could have worded it 2018 and beyond. I was basically trying to look at the teams holes for next year. They will have to fill those holes somehow even if they are just placeholder players. They should have money to spend.

At the end of the day I have always tried to give my thoughts and at the same time realize how this team operates and what is realistic. Is the current payroll sustainable? Is this Angelos' idea of going for it? I just don't see a Houston type of a rebuild here. I also don't think they have to do that but they do have to pick a direction and nail it. 

[weams]

13 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I could have worded it 2018 and beyond. I was basically trying to look at the teams holes for next year. They will have to fill those holes somehow even if they are just placeholder players. They should have money to spend.

At the end of the day I have always tried to give my thoughts and at the same time realize how this team operates and what is realistic. Is the current payroll sustainable? Is this Angelos' idea of going for it? I just don't see a Houston type of a rebuild here. I also don't think they have to do that but they do have to pick a direction and nail it. 

Spend no money. Finish last twice. 

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

Spend no money. Finish last twice. 

Not happening. They will not go that direction. I think after getting so much interest back in the team he would never do that. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Cumberbundy said:

We need the bullpen to be put in position to rack up great numbers right out of the break, use them heavily and hope they dominate, not many days to audition left. 

No bullpen is good enough to salvage this level of ineptitude from the starting pitchers.    They now have a 5.74 ERA -- worst in the league by 0.89 runs/game, and worse than our starters ever were during the dark years.    

A few weeks ago, Tony made a post about these starters being the worst we'd ever had, and I responded with a post showing that a couple (but only a couple) of past Oriole teams had worse starting pitching.   Since then, the current group has outdone itself with their level of craptitude, and now they're worse than all those old teams.

I've been waiting, in vain, for the situation to self-correct to a degree.    Just to be clear:

- Kevin Gausman had a career 3.97 ERA going into this season, and 3.61 last year.     He should be on the upswing part of his career, yet he's carrying a 5.61 ERA now.

- Chris Tillman had a 4.13 career ERA going into this season, and 3.77 last season.    He's at 7.90 now.

- Ubaldo Jimenez had a 4.13 career ERA going into this season, 5.44 last year.    His ERA is at 6.84 now.

- Wade Miley had a 4.18 career ERA going into this season, and 5.37 last year.     His ERA is 5.20 now, but 11.68 over his last six starts.

- Dylan Bundy had a career 3.96 ERA, including 4.02 last year.    He's now at 4.33, including 8.54 over his last five starts.

In all fairness to Dan Duquette, while his rotation wasn't exactly the 1970 Orioles, nobody could have foreseen a total meltdown such as is occurring right now.     It's beyond the pale of even the most pessimistic reasonable outcomes.      

Rational thinking tells me that the starting pitching can't possibly stay this bad.     But the actual trend tells me it may actually get worse.     And that's just mind-numbing.     I've literally, without any exaggeration necessary, never seen anything like this.   It's the perfect storm.    

 

[TradeAngelos]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

No bullpen is good enough to salvage this level of ineptitude from the starting pitchers.    They now have a 5.74 ERA -- worst in the league by 0.89 runs/game, and worse than our starters ever were during the dark years.    

A few weeks ago, Tony made a post about these starters being the worst we'd ever had, and I responded with a post showing that a couple (but only a couple) of past Oriole teams had worse starting pitching.   Since then, the current group has outdone itself with their level of craptitude, and now they're worse than all those old teams.

I've been waiting, in vain, for the situation to self-correct to a degree.    Just to be clear:

- Kevin Gausman had a career 3.97 ERA going into this season, and 3.61 last year.     He should be on the upswing part of his career, yet he's carrying a 5.61 ERA now.

- Chris Tillman had a 4.13 career ERA going into this season, and 3.77 last season.    He's at 7.90 now.

- Ubaldo Jimenez had a 4.13 career ERA going into this season, 5.44 last year.    His ERA is at 6.84 now.

- Wade Miley had a 4.18 career ERA going into this season, and 5.37 last year.     His ERA is 5.20 now, but 11.68 over his last six starts.

- Dylan Bundy had a career 3.96 ERA, including 4.02 last year.    He's now at 4.33, including 8.54 over his last five starts.

In all fairness to Dan Duquette, while his rotation wasn't exactly the 1970 Orioles, nobody could have foreseen a total meltdown such as is occurring right now.     It's beyond the pale of even the most pessimistic reasonable outcomes.      

Rational thinking tells me that the starting pitching can't possibly stay this bad.     But the actual trend tells me it may actually get worse.     And that's just mind-numbing.     I've literally, without any exaggeration necessary, never seen anything like this.   It's the perfect storm.    

 

Just remember all the flaws with Duquette's "underperforming" theory. Because that surely isn't happening. This was all expected.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Just remember all the flaws with Duquette's "underperforming" theory. Because that surely isn't happening. This was all expected.

Nope.    Not at this level.   No way.