Building the 2018 team

[Cumberbundy]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No bullpen is good enough to salvage this level of ineptitude from the starting pitchers.    They now have a 5.74 ERA -- worst in the league by 0.89 runs/game, and worse than our starters ever were during the dark years.    

A few weeks ago, Tony made a post about these starters being the worst we'd ever had, and I responded with a post showing that a couple (but only a couple) of past Oriole teams had worse starting pitching.   Since then, the current group has outdone itself with their level of craptitude, and now they're worse than all those old teams.

I've been waiting, in vain, for the situation to self-correct to a degree.    Just to be clear:

- Kevin Gausman had a career 3.97 ERA going into this season, and 3.61 last year.     He should be on the upswing part of his career, yet he's carrying a 5.61 ERA now.

- Chris Tillman had a 4.13 career ERA going into this season, and 3.77 last season.    He's at 7.90 now.

- Ubaldo Jimenez had a 4.13 career ERA going into this season, 5.44 last year.    His ERA is at 6.84 now.

- Wade Miley had a 4.18 career ERA going into this season, and 5.37 last year.     His ERA is 5.20 now, but 11.68 over his last six starts.

- Dylan Bundy had a career 3.96 ERA, including 4.02 last year.    He's now at 4.33, including 8.54 over his last five starts.

In all fairness to Dan Duquette, while his rotation wasn't exactly the 1970 Orioles, nobody could have foreseen a total meltdown such as is occurring right now.     It's beyond the pale of even the most pessimistic reasonable outcomes.      

Rational thinking tells me that the starting pitching can't possibly stay this bad.     But the actual trend tells me it may actually get worse.     And that's just mind-numbing.     I've literally, without any exaggeration necessary, never seen anything like this.   It's the perfect storm.    

 

Frob, I'm talking about the bullpen coming out hot after the AS break for trade value. I want them all to look incredible and get shipped out.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Cumberbundy said:

Frob, I'm talking about the bullpen coming out hot after the AS break for trade value. I want them all to look incredible and get shipped out.

Ah, I misunderstood you.     

I didn't like how Britton looked last night.    That was not encouraging.  

[Cumberbundy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Ah, I misunderstood you.     

I didn't like how Britton looked last night.    That was not encouraging.  

That was the most disheartening part of the game for me, two outings in a row where he had no idea where the ball was going and the clock is ticking on getting something substantial for him. If the Os losing means we won't trade Mountcastle or Hays then I can live with the Ls now and hope for a miracle 2nd half, but all of this "buying" talk is more frightening than a 3-0 Tillman heater. 

 

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

I could have worded it 2018 and beyond. I was basically trying to look at the teams holes for next year. They will have to fill those holes somehow even if they are just placeholder players. They should have money to spend.

At the end of the day I have always tried to give my thoughts and at the same time realize how this team operates and what is realistic. Is the current payroll sustainable? Is this Angelos' idea of going for it? I just don't see a Houston type of a rebuild here. I also don't think they have to do that but they do have to pick a direction and nail it. 

You don't need to explain away or apologize for an excellent thread that generated a lot of discussion. 

[hoosiers]

What a mess, Dan.  What a mess.

[weams]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Ah, I misunderstood you.     

I didn't like how Britton looked last night.    That was not encouraging.  

I think he is quite hurt. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

18 minutes ago, weams said:

I think he is quite hurt. 

I'm not sure. His pitches in his rehab were sharp. They were biting real good and the velocity and command was there. He looked like his old self, control and speed-wise.

[eddie83]

Sound like from Roch that Sisco will be here next year -not a surprise- and that Hays may break camp with the team. If so as others have pointed out that is a significant payroll savings. If Britton is dealt he is making $11.4M this year. 

If Angelos keeps the payroll the same they will have plenty of money. Of course the biggest need is where they are usually reluctant to spend big, starting pitching. 

[FlipTheBird]

36 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Sound like from Roch that Sisco will be here next year -not a surprise- and that Hays may break camp with the team. If so as others have pointed out that is a significant payroll savings. If Britton is dealt he is making $11.4M this year. 

If Angelos keeps the payroll the same they will have plenty of money. Of course the biggest need is where they are usually reluctant to spend big, starting pitching. 

If they punt a few guys before July 31, you have to get some SP candidates back. That's a no-brainer.

[TonySoprano]

Without putting Manny on the table, I don't believe there is a trade that can bring us help in the rotation for next year.  (Feel free to tell me where I'm wrong about this.)

What arm(s) in our system, if any, would you plug into what could be 3 openings in the 2018 rotation?

At the media event last month, I asked Dan if the Orioles would "buck" the trend and go to a "buy the arms" approach this offseason.  He deferred and noted there were other ways to get arms, referencing Chen and Gonzalez.  Before people jump all over Dan, ownership has stayed away from acquiring top free agent pitching, and Buck has publicly agreed with this approach.  We are going to need to buy some pitching, but it will likely be bargain shopping.

If you could convince Buck and Angelos to buy some arms this winter, who would you recommend?  From https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html
 

Quote

Brett Anderson (30)
Jake Arrieta (32)
Clay Buchholz (33)
Madison Bumgarner (28) — $12MM club option with a $1.5M buyout
Trevor Cahill (30)
Matt Cain (33) — $21MM club option with a $7.5MM buyout
Andrew Cashner (31)
Jhoulys Chacin (30)
Tyler Chatwood (28)
Jesse Chavez (34)
Wei-Yin Chen (32) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $52MM on his contract
Alex Cobb (30)
Bartolo Colon (45)
Johnny Cueto (32) — Can opt out of the remaining four years, $84MM on his contract
Yu Darvish (31)
John Danks (33)
Jorge De La Rosa (37)
R.A. Dickey (43) — $8MM club option with $500K buyout
Nathan Eovaldi (28) — $TBD club option
Marco Estrada (34)
Scott Feldman (35)
Doug Fister (34)
Yovani Gallardo (32) — $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jaime Garcia (31)
Matt Garza (34) — $13MM vesting option/$5MM club option (can become $1MM club option based on DL time)
Gio Gonzalez (32) – $12MM club option, vests with 180 innings pitched in 2017
Miguel Gonzalez (34)
Jeremy Hellickson (31)
Derek Holland (31)
Ubaldo Jimenez (34)
Ian Kennedy (33) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $43MM on his contract
John Lackey (39)
Francisco Liriano (34)
Jordan Lyles (27)
Lance Lynn (31)
Wade Miley (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout
Mike Minor (30) — $10MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout
Matt Moore (29) — $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jon Niese (31)
Ricky Nolasco (35) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Martin Perez (27) — $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout
Michael Pineda (29)
Clayton Richard (34)
Tyson Ross (31)
CC Sabathia (37)
Anibal Sanchez (34) — $16MM club option with a $5MM buyout
Hector Santiago (30)
Chris Sale (29) — $12.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Masahiro Tanaka (29) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $67MM on his contract
Chris Tillman (30)
Josh Tomlin (33) — $3MM club option with a $750K buyout
Jason Vargas (35)
Jered Weaver (35)
Chris Young (39) — $8MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout

It's easy to complain about where we are, and how we got here.  That's not going to change a thing, so instead of doing that, tell us what your plan is for 2018. 

[DirtyBird]

If Boston buys out Chris Sale, I think we should go after him.

[eddie83]

2 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

If they punt a few guys before July 31, you have to get some SP candidates back. That's a no-brainer.

No question that has to be the goal. That said you need to get quality talent regardless of position. 

[eddie83]

19 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Without putting Manny on the table, I don't believe there is a trade that can bring us help in the rotation for next year.  (Feel free to tell me where I'm wrong about this.)

What arm(s) in our system, if any, would you plug into what could be 3 openings in the 2018 rotation?

At the media event last month, I asked Dan if the Orioles would "buck" the trend and go to a "buy the arms" approach this offseason.  He deferred and noted there were other ways to get arms, referencing Chen and Gonzalez.  Before people jump all over Dan, ownership has stayed away from acquiring top free agent pitching, and Buck has publicly agreed with this approach.  We are going to need to buy some pitching, but it will likely be bargain shopping.

If you could convince Buck and Angelos to buy some arms this winter, who would you recommend?  From https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html
 

It's easy to complain about where we are, and how we got here.  That's not going to change a thing, so instead of doing that, tell us what your plan is for 2018. 

I am all for another Chen and Gonzalez. The issue is those types of finds aren't easy. 

I don't see how they don't attempt a Ubaldo type of signing this winter, meaning a 3/4 year deal.. They can't possibly try to patch 3 holes with one year bounce back types. I like Cobb but obviously have no idea what his market would be. Certainly after the trade deadline is over we will know more.

On another thread I brought up the Yankees and Red Sox, mentioning Sale and Tanaka. I know we aren't in play for those types. 

Toronto acquired Estrada in a trade and then re-signed him even when he went to FA. Then they brought in Happ. They need something along those lines. They can't possible expect to be contenders next year with where Gausman is at right now without something significant. I was just pointing out that money should be there.