Adam Jones HOF chances?

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Besides Palmeiro, is there any eligible 3000 hit guy not in the HOF?

Uh, Pete Rose....

[Frobby]

But more to the point, there is very little chance that Jones gets to 3000 hits.     I doubt he makes it much beyond 2,500, if he even makes it that far.

[backwardsk]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Uh, Pete Rose....

Are people with lifetime bans eligible for the HOF?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Are people with lifetime bans eligible for the HOF?

No, or at least, Rose isn't.    

But I don't want to get too far off the point.     I'd agree that anyone who gets 3,000 hits is very likely to make the Hall of Fame.    But Adam is not likely to get 3,000 hits.   I won't say it's absolutely impossible -- Adam likely will have more hits through his age 31 season than Craig Biggio (1470), Wade Boggs (1597), Lou Brock (1608) or Rafael Palmeiro (1636), all of whom made it to 3,000.   But  those guys are exceptions to the general pattern, and there's nothing about Adam's career arc to suggest he's going to reach that level.  

[Aristotelian]

6 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

It's not zero.

I'd put it at maybe 5%.  He compares favorably to Andre Dawson at his age, but not nearly as good defensively.

Smart money is on "no".  He needs to have an unusually productive decade in his 30s to be in the conversation.

Also, it's really hard to get traction as a CF because people expect corner OF production.  Kenny Lofton and Jim Edmonds should be Hall of Fame CF and both were punted.

Dawson had an MVP plus two more top 3 MVP seasons by this time. Dawson was close to 50 WAR. I love Jones and everything he has brought to the Orioles but Dawson is a stretch. Unless Jones puts up 20 WAR next year I don't see it happening. 

[backwardsk]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, or at least, Rose isn't.    

But I don't want to get too far off the point.     I'd agree that anyone who gets 3,000 hits is very likely to make the Hall of Fame.    But Adam is not likely to get 3,000 hits.   I won't say it's absolutely impossible -- Adam likely will have more hits through his age 31 season than Craig Biggio (1470), Wade Boggs (1597), Lou Brock (1608) or Rafael Palmeiro (1636), all of whom made it to 3,000.   But  those guys are exceptions to the general pattern, and there's nothing about Adam's career arc to suggest he's going to reach that level.  

It's all about health for him and a willingness for a team to employee him in his later 30s.  Torii Hunter, who didn't have the same career as the guys you mentioned had over 1200 hits between age 32-39.  If Jones can do that, he could try to stick around in an age 40-41 seasons to try and collect those 100-150 hits.

He's on pace for about 175 hits this season and that would make an average of about 166 hits/season over his last four.

150 hits/season over the next 8 seasons gets him within striking distance.

Do I think it's likely? No.  Do I think it's a significantly greater chance than 0%, absolutely. If you gave me 50:1 odds, I'd put $1000 on it.

It's the only way he'll get in, IMO is to have that significant counting stat.

 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

It's all about health for him and a willingness for a team to employee him in his later 30s.  Torii Hunter, who didn't have the same career as the guys you mentioned had over 1200 hits between age 32-39.  If Jones can do that, he could try to stick around in an age 40-41 seasons to try and collect those 100-150 hits.

He's on pace for about 175 hits this season and that would make an average of about 166 hits/season over his last four.

150 hits/season over the next 8 seasons gets him within striking distance.

Do I think it's likely? No.  Do I think it's a significantly greater chance than 0%, absolutely. If you gave me 50:1 odds, I'd put $1000 on it.

It's the only way he'll get in, IMO is to have that significant counting stat.

 

For what it's worth, I just counted up 15 players who had more hits than Adam through age 31, and who ended up at least 200 hits shy of 3,000.     I stopped when I got below 2,600, but I'm sure there are plenty more.    

I'd guess the 50:1 odds you proposed are probably about fair, given everything we know.    I agree the odds aren't zero.   

Regarding Torii Hunter, he was a significantly better player at age 31 than Adam is.   Adam had a faster start to his career, but he isn't aging as well.

[Babypowder]

Adam Jones has been worth 28 fWAR for his career through age 31. He just needs to put up another 30 or so in his 30s while he is already declining... totally doable.

[Camden_yardbird]

Yes, with a caveat.  I think he will be a stellar coach.  I could see him coaching a team to a championship.

[Tx Oriole]

53 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Are people with lifetime bans eligible for the HOF?

No. Pete Rose doesn't belong.

[Tx Oriole]

3 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

No. Pete Rose doesn't belong.

And no I don't think Jones makes the Hall of Fame.

[esmd]

13 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

He has no chance.  Zero. 

This.

And I don't see him getting to 400 HRs either.

[spiritof66]

8 hours ago, backwardsk said:

Besides Palmeiro, is there any eligible 3000 hit guy not in the HOF?

No. Just the recent guys -- A-Rod, Jeter, and Ichiro -- plus Rose.

[25 Nuggets]

Most career hits by eligible non-HOFers (meaning BBWAA or Vet's Committee)

1. 3020 Rafael Palmeiro
2. 2935 Barry Bonds
3. 2866 Harold Baines
4. 2757 Vada Pinson
5. 2743 Al Oliver
6. 2716 Rusty Staub
7. 2715 Bill Buckner
8. 2712 Dave Parker
9. 2705 Doc Cramer
10. 2689 Gary Sheffield

Next ballot will include Omar Vizquel (2877), Johnny Damon (2769) and Chipper Jones (2726).

[justice98]

On 7/25/2017 at 0:01 AM, backwardsk said:

He's on pace to be around 1650 at the end of the season.

if he averages 166 hits until he's 39, he's less than 30 away in his year 40 season.  If he chooses to play that long and stays healthy.

Even staying healthy, averaging 166 for that long is asking a lot, IMO.