Stan 'The Fan' Charles: Grading Dan Duquette's Body Of Work

[PressBoxOnline]

Stan "The Fan" Charles says it's difficult to truly evaluate Dan Duquette's body of work with the Orioles, and one of his greatest accomplishments may be just grinding things out with an owner he doesn't always see eye to eye with.

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2017/08/02/grading-orioles-executive-dan-duquettes-body-of-work-is-difficult
 

[Ruzious]

For 2017, I give Dan a B to B+.  He made 3 moves considered relatively minor at the time that netted us Beckham, Castro, and Santander.  All 3 could be significantly helping the O's for many years - the next 3 years at very cheap payroll prices.  He didn't make any awful signings - though Trumbo was certainly not an inspiring signing, and Castillo was a solid 1 year signing (almost sure to opt out).  He didn't do enough to improve the starting pitching - I like Hellickson more than most do, but he doesn't appear to be a long-term answer at this point.  We can't blame him for not trading Britton, because we don't know all the facts, and a trade with Houston apparently fell apart due to medical reasons.  Similarly, he doesn't control what happens with Manny, but he helped set things up so that the team can afford Manny, imo.  Bridwell... it is what it is... I'm not going to blame him.  Gallardo for Seth Smith made sense.  I don't know to what (if any) extent he's involved in the draft, but presumably he had input in hiring the people who did run the draft, and my impression is that they did well.  Did I leave anything out?  Bottom line - those 3 minor moves seem like major wins, and I don't think he screwed up anything too badly, but he failed to improve the starting pitching.          

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

For 2017, I give Dan a B to B+.  He made 3 moves considered relatively minor at the time that netted us Beckham, Castro, and Santander.  All 3 could be significantly helping the O's for many years - the next 3 years at very cheap payroll prices.  He didn't make any awful signings - though Trumbo was certainly not an inspiring signing, and Castillo was a solid 1 year signing (almost sure to opt out).  He didn't do enough to improve the starting pitching - I like Hellickson more than most do, but he doesn't appear to be a long-term answer at this point.  We can't blame him for not trading Britton, because we don't know all the facts, and a trade with Houston apparently fell apart due to medical reasons.  Similarly, he doesn't control what happens with Manny, but he helped set things up so that the team can afford Manny, imo.  Bridwell... it is what it is... I'm not going to blame him.  Gallardo for Seth Smith made sense.  I don't know to what (if any) extent he's involved in the draft, but presumably he had input in hiring the people who did run the draft, and my impression is that they did well.  Did I leave anything out?  Bottom line - those 3 minor moves seem like major wins, and I don't think he screwed up anything too badly, but he failed to improve the starting pitching.          

I don't understand why folks think Castillo is almost a lock to opt out.

Why do you think he can do better than what he has left on his O's contract?

His offense numbers are up a tad but his rWAR is less than half what it was last year.

[Ruzious]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't understand why folks think Castillo is almost a lock to opt out.

Why do you think he can do better than what he has left on his O's contract?

His offense numbers are up a tad but his rWAR is less than half what it was last year.

Because he's set to make 7 mil... for 1 year, and he can probably get more than that... per year... in a multi year deal.  If he waits, he's at the age where he might not get that opportunity again.  

Last I heard, he's thrown out 46% of the base-runners that have tried to steal - and supposedly his framing has improved from bad at the beginning of the season to solid - probably because he's more comfortable with the pitchers.  And he's a talented hitter who is good enough to DH if his team is short there.    

 

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Because he's set to make 7 mil... for 1 year, and he can probably get more than that... per year... in a multi year deal.  If he waits, he's at the age where he might not get that opportunity again.  

Last I heard, he's thrown out 46% of the base-runners that have tried to steal - and supposedly his framing has improved from bad at the beginning of the season to solid - probably because he's more comfortable with the pitchers.  And he's a talented hitter who is good enough to DH if his team is short there.    

 

He was pretty much those things last season as well as being a year younger.

I think it's pretty much a coinflip. 

I just don't see how his position is appreciably stronger this off-season.

[Frobby]

I'm hoping Castillo opts out, and not at all sure that he will.    

[Aglets]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't understand why folks think Castillo is almost a lock to opt out.

Why do you think he can do better than what he has left on his O's contract?

His offense numbers are up a tad but his rWAR is less than half what it was last year.

Welington is the same age now as Wieters was last year.

Wieters had a 1.7 WAR season in 2016, and turned it into a 2 year, $21M deal, with a player opt-out.

Welington is on pace for a 1.5 WAR season or so this year (in fewer games) and has a better recent track record.  (Prior to 2016 Wieters hadn't put up more than 1 WAR in a season since 2012).  Shouldn't the Beef be able to top Wieters on the open market?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aglets said:

Welington is the same age now as Wieters was last year.

Wieters had a 1.7 WAR season in 2016, and turned it into a 2 year, $21M deal, with a player opt-out.

Welington is on pace for a 1.5 WAR season or so this year (in fewer games) and has a better recent track record.  (Prior to 2016 Wieters hadn't put up more than 1 WAR in a season since 2012).  Shouldn't the Beef be able to top Wieters on the open market?

And teams are going to look at Wieters (.2rWAR) and agree that the Nats made a horrible signing last year.

Last year Beef put up a 2.4 rWAR season and couldn't do better than 2/13 with an opt out.

I just don't see anything out there that makes me think he will be more coveted this year over last year.

[Aglets]

Maybe if he just gets Scott Boras...............      Worked for Matt I guess.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And teams are going to look at Wieters (.2rWAR) and agree that the Nats made a horrible signing last year.

The Nats are 60-25 when Wieters starts, 10-21 when he doesn't.    His CERA is 1.35 runs/game better than Lobaton's.    Maybe those stats are just sheer coincidence, but I'd have to think the Nats are  not too unhappy with the way the Wieters acquisition is working out for them.    

Meanwhile, I think the differential between Caleb Joseph's CERA (4.19) and Castillo's (5.59) will scare some teams off.    I know CERA is a noisy stat, but that's a very drastic difference.   

[eddie83]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And teams are going to look at Wieters (.2rWAR) and agree that the Nats made a horrible signing last year.

Last year Beef put up a 2.4 rWAR season and couldn't do better than 2/13 with an opt out.

I just don't see anything out there that makes me think he will be more coveted this year over last year.

Is he the best of the FA class at catcher? 

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

He was pretty much those things last season as well as being a year younger.

I think it's pretty much a coinflip. 

I just don't see how his position is appreciably stronger this off-season.

His OPS+ is up 15  - from 92 last year to 107.  His caught stealing % is up from 38 to 46.  

And what you and the others (of your kind) I think are missing... even if he signs the exact same contract this offseason that he signed last offseason... he's better off than if he opts in, because he has the option of getting an extra year at 7 mil.    

Guys, barring an injury or something unforseen... he's opting out.    

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

His OPS+ is up 15  - from 92 last year to 107.  His caught stealing % is up from 38 to 46.  

And what you and the others (of your kind) I think are missing... even if he signs the exact same contract this offseason that he signed last offseason... he's better off than if he opts in, because he has the option of getting an extra year at 7 mil.    

Guys, barring an injury or something unforseen... he's opting out.    

 

He's also a year older and he's had injury issues this season.  I also think the consensus is he's Baltimore's second best catcher right now.

He may opt out, he may not.  I think it is very premature to act as if it is a forgone conclusion.

[Ruzious]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

He's also a year older and he's had injury issues this season.  I also think the consensus is he's Baltimore's second best catcher right now.

He may opt out, he may not.  I think it is very premature to act as if it is a forgone conclusion.

But at least address my last point.  Do you think he won't get an offer at least similar to the one he signed with the O's?  And if he does, wouldn't that clearly put him in a better position than opting in would?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

But at least address my last point.  Do you think he won't get an offer at least similar to the one he signed with the O's?  And if he does, wouldn't that clearly put him in a better position than opting in would?

I'm not sure he does. 

I'm also not sure that 1/7M and not having to relocate is all that much better than 1/6 with a 1/7 option.  I guess it might depend on who makes the offer. 

Maybe he thinks a healthy year at OPACY will lead to a nicer payday in the 2018-2019 offseason?