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My early speculation on arbitration raises

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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  • 4 months later...
weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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On 8/25/2017 at 8:28 PM, Frobby said:

The seasons not over, but we kind of know who's had a good season or a bad one.

Manny Machado: He's made $5 mm and $11.5 mm the last two years.    He's having a slightly down season but still may finish with 35 HR and 100 RBI.   I'm guessing he will make $17 mm next year.   For reference points, Josh Donaldon is making $17 mm this year after  making $11.6 last year; Nolan Arenado will make $17.75 mm next year after making $11.75 this year.

Zach Britton: He made $3.2 mm, $6.75 mm and $11.4 mm the last three years.  He's been hurt a lot and not nearly as effective this year as in 2014-16.    I'll guess he earns $13.2 mm.    Precedent: Chris Davis  was raised from $10.35 mm to $12 mm after his lousy 2014 campaign.

Jonathan Schoop:  He made $3.475 mm this year.   He's had a career year and will deserve a nice bump.   I'm guessing he makes $8 mm next year.    Precedent: Roughned Odor's long term deal increases from $3.33 mm to $7.83 mm this year.     Also, Manny got a 130% raise in his 2nd year of arbitration after an excellent year.

Kevin Gausman:   He's been a big disappointment.  He earned $3.45 mm this year as a Super-2.    I'm guessing $5.25 mm for Gausman next year.   Precedent:   Chris Tillman was raised from $4.315 mm to $6.225 mm after a disappointing 2015 season.

Brad Brach:  He made $1.25 mm and $3.05 mm the last two years, beating the Orioles in arbitration this last time.    He's had a decent year, not a great one, and was called into closer duty for a while and was only so-so in that role.    My guess is he goes to $5.25 mm.    Precedent:  Tyler Clippard went from $4.0 mm to $5.875 mm after a nice season where he posted a 2.41 ERA as a setup man.    Britton went from $3.2 mm to $6.75 mm after his second year as closer.    From a percentage point of view, this is between those two.

Caleb Joseph:  He lost his arbitration case and is making $700,000 after a historically bad season.    This year he's having his best year and has earned his way to playing roughly 50% of the time.   I haven't found a really good comp but I think his salary at least triples.   Put me down for $2.25 mm.

Tim Beckham:  he earned $885 k this year as a Super Two.   He's had a breakout year, especially since being traded to the O's.    He's got a huge raise coming -- to $3 mm?     Precedent:  Roughned Odor made $1.33 mm as a Super-2, increased to $3.33 mm next year as a part of his long-term deal after a 2.4 WAR, .798 OPS season.    

I have $53.95 mm for these 7 players, who made about $34.3 mm this year.    

Anyone I have too high or low?

Pretty good so far!

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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11 minutes ago, weams said:

Pretty good so far!

Yeah, I haven't done too badly on these five, though on a percentage basis I was pretty far off on Caleb.    I like my projections on Schoop and Gausman better than MLBTR's.   They were high on both IMO.

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TradeAngelos All-Star

TradeAngelos

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Did I miss something where it was determined that giving Britton 12m for the season was the right move with him on the shelf for God knows how long? I guess paying 12m for a guy who is a FA after this year, which we have zero chance of retaining in the hope he comes back from injury sometime before July, and proves he is valuable enough to trade....is worth the wasted 6m or so (if not more)? For a team that watches every penny seems like an odd move. 

 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1 minute ago, TradeAngelos said:

Did I miss something where it was determined that giving Britton 12m for the season was the right move with him on the shelf for God knows how long? I guess paying 12m for a guy who is a FA after this year, which we have zero chance of retaining in the hope he comes back from injury sometime before July, and proves he is valuable enough to trade....is worth the wasted 6m or so (if not more)? For a team that watches every penny seems like an odd move. 

 

They didn't have a choice.   They had tendered him a contract before the injury occurred, and although you can cut a player for "lack of skill" before the season and pay only one month's salary, you can't cut a guy for injury.

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TradeAngelos

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Just now, Frobby said:

They didn't have a choice.   They had tendered him a contract before the injury occurred, and although you can cut a player for "lack of skill" before the season and pay only one month's salary, you can't cut a guy for injury.

They tendered him what contract? When? The arb deal? I'm confused.

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Frobby

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3 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

They tendered him what contract? When? The arb deal? I'm confused.

Back at the beginning of December, there was a deadline for tendering contracts to players under team control.    If you don't tender a contract then, the player becomes a free agent.  The O's tendered a contract to Britton at the time.    That automatically triggered his right to go to arbitration.

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TradeAngelos

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Just now, Frobby said:

Back at the beginning of December, there was a deadline for tendering contracts to players under team control.    If you don't tender a contract then, the player becomes a free agent.  The O's tendered a contract to Britton at the time.    That automatically triggered his right to go to arbitration.

Ok thanks for clearing that up. 

Did we not know this at the time? Why all the talk about non tendering him or giving him a 2 year smaller deal? 

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Frobby

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Just now, TradeAngelos said:

Ok thanks for clearing that up. 

Did we not know this at the time? Why all the talk about non tendering him or giving him a 2 year smaller deal? 

There was confusion on the day the injury was first reported.    Britton and whoever interviewed him seemed not to know that you can't cut a player who has been tendered a contract due to injury to avoid arbitration.   It got cleared up pretty quickly in the press, and there was substantial discussion here about the point, but some people missed it and just saw the initial press reports.    If you go back to the original thread about Britton's injury, you can find that discussion there as it developed.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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3 hours ago, TradeAngelos said:

Did I miss something where it was determined that giving Britton 12m for the season was the right move with him on the shelf for God knows how long? I guess paying 12m for a guy who is a FA after this year, which we have zero chance of retaining in the hope he comes back from injury sometime before July, and proves he is valuable enough to trade....is worth the wasted 6m or so (if not more)? For a team that watches every penny seems like an odd move. 

 

They were obligated. They had tendered him. They could have fought over a million I guess. 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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2 hours ago, TradeAngelos said:

Ok thanks for clearing that up. 

Did we not know this at the time? Why all the talk about non tendering him or giving him a 2 year smaller deal? 

Reporters went off that route and had Zach half convinced for half a day. 

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