Austin Hays

[canonfaz]

24 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Generally speed grades are based on home to first times.   So, I'm assuming he got some slower home to first times.  I haven't put a stop watch on him, he plays fast so I've trusted the 55 speed grade most outlets have put on him.  I'll time him when he gets a start for the O's.

I have a feeling that his home to first time for his first hit in the bigs might be the fastest he's ever run in his life.

[Camden_yardbird]

50 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Keith Law from Insider:

 

I also hit up a Bowie-Reading game last week to see some of Baltimore's top hitting prospects, led by 2016 third-round pick Austin Hays, who is now hitting .329/.363/.606 across two levels with 31 total homers. Hays homered once in that game, a bomb to the opposite field on a fastball on the outer third, and showed no trouble catching up to velocity. He has great bat speed and likes to use it, taking relatively few pitches but also showing the ability to foul a lot of stuff off. He's a below-average runner who has played a lot of center but was in a corner that night and will certainly end up there.

 

Huh?   Have never seen Hays described as a below average runner. 

I saw Hays a few weeks ago.  Definitely looks sluggish home to first.  So I will buy that.

[canonfaz]

Must have been an interesting first game for Hays. Long rain delay, so he got to spend a lot of time just hanging out in the clubhouse. That is probably the first time that he's been at OPACY. Then to cap it off, a walk off homer by Manny. Welcome to the bigs kid!!!!

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, eddie83 said:

So now Trumbo sits? Doubt that. I am not saying he will never start vs RHP, I just can't see Smith being buried. 

With Buck you are probably right, but I'd rather have Smith Dhing than Trumbo against righties at this point. It would be silly for the Orioles to bring Hays up and sit him on the bench. Saying all that, I'd never put anything past Buck when it comes to playing a veteran over a rookie.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yes and no.   There's basically no difference between calling him up now and having him on the Opening Day roster next year.     But if he isn't on the OD roster next year, this extends the dates on which we could call him up next year and avoid having him accrue enough service time to (1) attain six full years of service by the end of 2023, or (2) qualify for Super 2 status after the 2020 season.

By way of example, if Hays is called up today and spends the rest of the year on our roster, he'll accrue 28 days of service time.     There are about 185 days in a season, and 172 days is considered a full season of service time.    So, if we hadn't called him up now, we could have left him off next year's OD roster, waited about 2 weeks to call him up, and he wouldn't have accrued a full year of service in 2018 and thus couldn't be a free agent until after the 2024 season.  But by calling him up now, we'd have to keep him in the minors about 6 weeks next year for him not to accrue his service time.     To avoid having him qualify as a Super Two after 2020 (which is less important, in my view), he'd need to stay in the minors for 2.5 - 3 months next season, instead of 1.5 - 2 months if he wasn't called up now.    

Santander time on the roster next year?

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, Ripken said:

I pray we get rid of Trumbo or Davis (which is impossible) this offseason.  I don't care for Rickard, and Smith will be gone, but I want Hayes and Santander in the lineup next year and that can't happen with Davis, Trumbo, and Mancini taking up 3 of the 4 1B/DH/COF spots.

I'd love to see Davis or Trumbo gone, but that's not going to happen with their unfortunate contracts. For some God awful reason Duquette bought high on Trumbo last offseason. I know no one expected Mancini to be this good in the major leagues, but there's a road block now for a few years and the team is really RH batter heavy. This is what makes Santander so intriguing. His ability to switch hit would be a real boon to the lineup if he can stick.

If Mancini is in left again next year and let's say Hays is now in RF, the Orioles will need a left-handed hitting 4th outfielder. Now perhaps that could be Mullins eventually, but he's really struggled down the stretch and probably needs some more seasoning. Santander could be that guy since Hays has the ability to play CF if needed, but unless he's getting pretty regular at bats, it's probably best to send him back down once his service time has been accumulated because he's not going to develop playing once a week.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Santander time on the roster next year?

Yes, it pretty much matches up with the date on which we could send Santander down.   

But one thing about the Orioles, they have rarely played service time games.     Hays is in the same position that Schoop was in when he was called up in September 2013, and that Mancini was in when he was called up last year.   In both cases, the player made the OD roster the next year, service time consequences be damned.    And if it's the last year for Jones, Manny, Britton and Brach, the O's may not feel they can afford not to have Hays on the roster from day one if he shows he's ready.   

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, ChuckS said:

For who?

Need to find an underperforming starter on another team with a bad contract.  Do we want to take one of those on? Only other option, is eating a portion of his contract in a salary dump.  

I think they may want to see if he can bounce back.  I agree, he should be moved before the season but it's going to be difficult.  A DH with a .700 to .750 OPS isn't worth more than the league minimum these days and he's got 2/25 left on his contract. 

This is honestly the best fit for Trumbo. The Orioles are going to need 2 to 3 starters next season so if they can move Trumbo to an AL team that wants to get rid of  SP contract then maybe we have something. Maybe someone can do some research to see potential options.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I think it would be more likely that you have Santander/Rickard and Hays on the corners or that they add another veteran outfielder, assuming that Trumbo is traded.   

DJ has had a good year and could figure into Baltimore sometime relatively soon I just don't think it will be in 2018, not in the early part of the season anyway.  

Still like to see more reports on his defense. 

He has improved in left field but is nothing more than adequate. His arm is slightly below average but shouldn't kill a team from left.

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Helping Baltimore make the playoffs, then what? He isn't a pitcher. Again, you can have the entire lineup hit and put up a lot of runs. But then you trot out a starter who gives up twice as many. Would it have really been a bad thing to keep him in Bowie for the playoffs, then bring him up after? Or is it to try and exploit the roster rule for him to be post season eligible?

Fair enough about the control. Guess we will see what they do there.

Buck tends to stick with vets. When Davis has been struggling, who was at first? When Trumbo struggled, who was getting his at bats? The roster expanded and Santander is texting Kim about how to properly throw sunflower seeds at home run hitters. Playing him once a week, or just in the last inning or two of a blowout isn't going to prove anything.

Then you might want to start taking up a collection to buy Buck a nice watch. I predict Rickard will still get a majority of the playing time.

Hays will play over Rickard making Rickard the Gentry role. I think last night was just his get acclimated night. The real question is whether Buck will play him over Trumbo or Smith? Maybe the Orioles are about to face a series of lefties? Hays was mashing them so at worse he makes this team better against lefties. 

If Rickard gets playing time over Hays then we'll know two things, one, this was a Duquette move and Buck didn't agree with it. Two, Buck literally hates rookies. Just kidding on the last part, but Hays is getting his playoff type experience with a playoff run in Baltimore. That means more than a "playoffs" in Bowie.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Generally speed grades are based on home to first times.   So, I'm assuming he got some slower home to first times.  I haven't put a stop watch on him, he plays fast so I've trusted the 55 speed grade most outlets have put on him.  I'll time him when he gets a start for the O's.

My guess is Laws looked at his stolen base numbers and came up with that. He's not a below average runner.

[Luke-OH]

Here is a post I made in July about Hays' swing and a change he made between college and pro ball to get to more power. 

On 7/15/2017 at 2:08 AM, phillyOs119 said:

I was looking at his swing today, and I noticed a subtle difference between his college swing and his swing with the O's.  It looks like a change the O's made immediately when he was drafted, because it's been there since the first Aberdeen video I could find from last year.  Although, it is possible that it's a change that he made on his own.

Watch the swings in this video, especially the last swing in the video at 25% speed.  You'll see a low leg lift, a good forward weight shift, but his hips twist to generate power just as his bat goes through the zone.  There is very little lag between his hips and his hands. 

"The whole package projects as an average hit tool with fringe game power" Eric Longenhagen (Fangraphs top 18 O's prospects 2017)

"The right-handed Floridian uses a short and handsy swing to consistently make the ball jump off his bat. Hays doesn't waste a lot of motion and has shown both the ability to hit for average and power, albeit it in a weaker conference. It might be more doubles power at the next level, but Hays has shown over-the-fence ability is in there." MLB.com

These were some thoughts about Hays, they don't sound like they are describing a guy who has hit 20 home runs in 84 games (tied for 6th in all of the minors) as an age appropriate player in A+ and AA ball.

I don't think these people have seen the change, it's not just a handsy swing anymore, he gets good hip separation and hand lag, triggered by a higher leg lift and quicker, more forceful weight shift.

Watch these two swings at 25%, they are two different camera angles, one pulled home run, one opposite field hit, one this year at Frederick, one last year at Aberdeen.  They are extremely similar and they both show the greater hip separation along with a more aggressive leg lift/plant which creates more torque.  I believe this has allowed him to surpass scout's/analyst's power expectations from when he was drafted.

 

In an interview with Melewski, Hays pretty much says the same thing.  He says Orioles coaches made the change.  I know the Orioles development process gets a bad rap from time to time, but this is a win from them.

From Melewski's blog:

But in a recent interview, Hays explained to me that there is one key reason for his power display this year. Not long after he was drafted last June, several O’s hitting coaches noticed he was not properly tapping into his power potential.

“In college, I would jump at the ball and allow my hands to drift forward with my body,” Hays explained. “This season I’ve done a really good job of keeping my hands back, so I get those extra couple of inches of momentum and force and power into my swing. And I’m doing that more consistently now than ever.

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

My guess is Laws looked at his stolen base numbers and came up with that. He's not a below average runner.

Yeah, makes sense, that would explain him calling Mullins a below average runner as well.  Mullins is a plus runner, but looks awkward trying to steal bases.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Hays will play over Rickard making Rickard the Gentry role. I think last night was just his get acclimated night. The real question is whether Buck will play him over Trumbo or Smith? Maybe the Orioles are about to face a series of lefties? Hays was mashing them so at worse he makes this team better against lefties. 

If Rickard gets playing time over Hays then we'll know two things, one, this was a Duquette move and Buck didn't agree with it. Two, Buck literally hates rookies. Just kidding on the last part, but Hays is getting his playoff type experience with a playoff run in Baltimore. That means more than a "playoffs" in Bowie.

Putting Hays to one side, Rickard has been playing too much in any event.    He has a .638 OPS, and it's been .571 since July 1.   He's started 35 games vs. LH starters and has a .620 OPS against them.    He's started 19 games vs. RH starters and has a .660 OPS against them.     He simply doesn't belong in the starting lineup.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Yeah, makes sense, that would explain him calling Mullins a below average runner as well.  Mullins is a plus runner, but looks awkward trying to steal bases.

Even though Cedric told me he was 100%, I don't think his hamstrings are. His lack of stolen base attempts tells me all I need to know. I've seen him fly down the bases and beat out a routine one hopper to short this year so I know the raw speed is there.