Are we a bad team masquerading as a mediocre one?

[Ohfan67]

BTW, barring a miracle Buck is about to get a losing September on his Orioles record. 

[Frobby]

Just now, Ohfan67 said:

BTW, barring a miracle Buck is about to get a losing September on his Orioles record. 

Remember 2015?    Let's see what happens.  

[Ohfan67]

2 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Not a formula for a winning team, and perhaps a rebuttal to Buck Showalter's critics ........ to expect anything more than the 72-75 overall record this team (with this starting pitching) has amassed is almost asking for the impossible.

 

o

What? Buck is the one still giving starts to Ubaldo and Tillman. I'm shocked you can basically dismiss Buck from responsibility, especially when all data indicates that Buck has a much bigger say in the roster, minor league moves, etc., than the average manager. 

[ArtVanDelay]

11 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

I believe that the starting pitching at-large has been so bad this season that it was part of the reason for the bullpen going from an excellent one (an A+ or an A) to a good one (an A- or a B+.)

Add to that the injury to Zach Britton for a significant portion of the season, and that's a lot of extra labor for the men in the 'pen.

 

o

Our bullpen is 18th in fWAR. 

[OFFNY]

11 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

 

What? Buck is the one still giving starts to Ubaldo and Tillman. I'm shocked you can basically dismiss Buck from responsibility, especially when all data indicates that Buck has a much bigger say in the roster, minor league moves, etc., than the average manager. 

 

o

 

And who should he have given starts to instead ???

What exactly were his significantly better options that he neglected that could have made this team a better one than it is ???

 

The situation has been so bad that the Orioles have tried going with a 6-man rotation, and it is still awful outside of Bundy and Gausman.

 

o

[Ohfan67]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Remember 2015?    Let's see what happens.  

Do you remember 2015? That five game winning streak at the end of the season left everyone with a good feeling, but the team actually went 14-13 that month and the five game winning streak was immediately preceded by a 5 game losing streak. I said barring a miracle. The Orioles performance in September 2015 was not miraculous. Their wild card elimination number is 11 with 5 teams ahead of them. Realistically it will only take five more losses to end the Orioles' playoff bid. 

[OFFNY]

27 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

 

Our bullpen is 18th in fWAR. 

 

o

 

Is that number at all affected by the fact that the Orioles' bullpen has logged the 2nd most innings than any other team in the American League, and the 3rd most innings than any team in the Majors?

Only the Blue Jays and the Reds have logged more bullpen innings than the Orioles.

 

o

[Ohfan67]

2 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

And who should he have given starts to instead ???

What exactly were his significantly better options that he neglected that could have made this team .a better one than it is ???

 

The situation has been so bad that the Orioles have tried going with a 6-man rotation, and it is still awful outside of Bundy and Gausman.

 

o

Castro to name one. 

 

Do you think Buck played zero role in constructing the pitching roster this year? You think Buck played zero role in approving past trades of minor league pitchers for fourth outfielder types? You think Buck played no role in the revolving door of pitching coaches at the ML level? I just don't see how you can absolve Buck of all responsibility for the performance of the team. The pitching, the offense, and the defense have all underperformed. The roster has been an awkward construction for years. Buck gets touted all the time for his involvement at all levels of the organization (his chart keeping up with minor league players, calls with minor league managers, etc.). How can you absolve him of responsibility for the team's performance?

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Our bullpen is 18th in fWAR. 

I wouldn't put too much stock in that, since fWAR is heavily based on FIP, which measures what they think the results should have been rather than what they were.    In terms of the real world:

6th in ERA

Tied for 3rd in wins

3rd fewest losses

Tied for 2nd in winning percentage

5th in win probability added

14th in save percentage (but we won 8 of the 16 games where a save was blown)

Overall, the bullpen has been well above average, though not as dominant as last year.

 

 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Do you remember 2015? That five game winning streak at the end of the season left everyone with a good feeling, but the team actually went 14-13 that month and the five game winning streak was immediately preceded by a 5 game losing streak. I said barring a miracle. The Orioles performance in September 2015 was not miraculous. Their wild card elimination number is 11 with 5 teams ahead of them. Realistically it will only take five more losses to end the Orioles' playoff bid. 

It was fairly miraculous to end the month with a winning record when we were 9-13 with 5 games to go.    That's all I meant.   

[OFFNY]

14 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

 

Castro to name one. 

Do you think Buck played zero role in constructing the pitching roster this year? You think Buck played zero role in approving past trades of minor league pitchers for fourth outfielder types? You think Buck played no role in the revolving door of pitching coaches at the ML level? I just don't see how you can absolve Buck of all responsibility for the performance of the team. The pitching, the offense, and the defense have all underperformed. The roster has been an awkward construction for years. Buck gets touted all the time for his involvement at all levels of the organization (his chart keeping up with minor league players, calls with minor league managers, etc.). How can you absolve him of responsibility for the team's performance?

 

o

Castro has been a Minor League relief pitcher since 2015, and he IS being prepped for the starting rotation next year. And if he had been in this year's rotation in the 2nd half of the season, he would not have been able to come out of the bullpen in long relief to do the excellent job that he did. Perhaps he would have been a solid starter had the Orioles thrown him into the rotation, but then he would not have been available to to bail out the other bad starters like he did on numerous occasions.

I never said that Showalter played zero role in roster construction, so please don't put words in my mouth like that. He had a horrible starting pitching staff to work with, and the list of managers that could have done a better job with this team and its historically bad starting rotation are few and far between. 

 

If you want to believe that this team could be 76-72 or 77-71 with another manager, fine. I don't.

 

o

[Aristotelian]

Depends on what month it is. April and August we looked like World Series contenders. The truth is somewhere in between. The pitching has been really, really, terrible. We have an OF consisting of Jones and about a bunch of guys who should all be DH's. As Schoop and Beckham come back to earth, the offense looks pretty average. I guess I would vote for mediocre as we do have some bright spots, but it's pretty close to being bad.

[Ohfan67]

6 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

Castro has been a Minor League relief pitcher since 2015, and he IS being prepped for the starting rotation next year. And if he had been in this year's rotation , he would not have been able to come out of the bullpen in long relief to do the excellent job that he did. PERHAPS he would have been a solid starter, but then we would not have had to to bail out the other bad starters like he did.

I never said that Showalter played zero role in roster construction, so please don't put words in my mouth like that. He had a horrible starting pitching staff to work with, and the list of managers that could have done a better job with this team and its historically bad starting rotation are few and far between. 

 

If you want to believe that this team could be 76-72 or 77-71 with another manager, fine. I don't.

 

o

I don't believe anything about what another manager could do. I am astounded at how quickly you removed all responsibility of team performance from Buck. The offense underperformed. The defense underperformed. The pitching underperformed. Is this Buck's third or fourth pitching coach? I honestly can't remember. 

[Ohfan67]

I like Buck. I respect Buck a lot. A whole lot. I applauded his hire. I think Buck was a great hire for the Orioles, even though it was an accident because at least the first choice turned down the job. I don't necessarily want Buck fired. But not to hold him to blame for team performance seems crazy to me. Yes, the Orioles dramatically improved from the horrible losing streak years, but that shouldn't excuse Buck from how a top ten payroll team performed, especially how coaching changes played out, etc. 

[Ohfan67]

Fans can't even blame injuries this year.