Orioles Have No Plans of Shopping Machado

[clapdiddy]

11 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I thought that was a very stupid narrative by Heyman. The Orioles were $9 million apart is laughable. That's chump change these days. Few weeks ago, Cafardo speculated the Orioles would make a run at Machado this winter and if that fails they would unload him with the Mets, Marlins and Phils likely suitors.

This seems to the best approach.  Go after this right after the season is over, or even now, as the season is all but over.  See what it will take.   I'd even offer him the opt-out after 5 years.   He'd still be 30 and young enough to get another huge contract if he chooses to do so.   

How would an 8/240 contract be?    Give him the opt-out after 4 or 5 years.   Pay him 5/133 in the first 5 years (18, 25, 27, 30, 33), then make the next three seasons at 107M (35M + per season) or an opt out. 

[Il BuonO]

9 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I am as optimistic as almost anyone here.  And I would join you in thinking that winning it all is not out of the question next year although there would have to be some additions and some monster seasons from many corners.

That said, IF the Orioles take the 6 or 8 or 10 WAR from Manny next year and then allow him to leave with only a draft pick in his place, the Orioles will have squandered an asset that is a once in a generation asset and doing so without hanging a World Championship banner in OPACY would be mismanagement on a scale that would be an embarrassment to the franchise and would cement Peter Angelos as being a terrible owner.

Peter Angelos saved the Franchise for the city of Baltimore.  He hasn't been a terrible owner because he is stupid or greedy...he has just made errors believing he is smarter than everyone else.  One of the biggest problems is that many times he is in fact smarter.  Anyway, 14 years of losing after firing his manager of the year, losing his home grown ace to the Yankees, these are black marks that he is actually trying to erase, by committing to Adam Jones, JJ Hardy, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo.  He even agreed to a large deal for Ubaldo.

Peter is not going to let Manny go, in my opinion, because there will be no reconciliation for him as an owner if he loses him.  He doesn't care so much about what the fans think, but I don't think he can stand losing, not games, but him personally, losing.  His legacy rides on the next 12-18 months in my opinion.  Doing nothing may well be what happens here and there are many close to the Orioles who think that is exactly what we will do.

First of all, if he's made many of these errors in judgment because he thinks himself smarter than the rest of the world, then he cannot be smarter than everyone else.

Secondly, see first sentence. With an ego like he has, it's almost understandable that he's more concerned with his image than what is actually best for the organization. The great negotiator can't allow the people he hires to make decisions that would project success. Then, how would he be able to take credit? As you said, he can't stand when he loses personally. Sounds like a team first kinda guy.

[Pheasants]

If Machado's September is on a par with April, May and June and thus he will have had 2 good months of hitting in the season, what will another team see him as worth?

Should we any longer be thinking of him as perennial MVP comparable to Trout and Harper and thus worth $30 million per year?  We now how good he could be, but is that what he likely will be?

[Camden_yardbird]

24 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

If Machado's September is on a par with April, May and June and thus he will have had 2 good months of hitting in the season, what will another team see him as worth?

Should we any longer be thinking of him as perennial MVP comparable to Trout and Harper and thus worth $30 million per year?  We now how good he could be, but is that what he likely will be?

Haha.  This post is hilariously out of touch.  He is considered by everybody as a top 10 if not top 5 player in the game.

If you trade him you expect and get a better package than the one Detroit got for Verlander.

Letting him walk with QO would test, if not my fandom in full, my desire to spend any money on an Orioles product for quite a few years.  No games, no merchandise, nothing, I could easily walk away from supporting the team for a few years.  It would be gross incompetence on the part of the Orioles leadership especially if all we see is another half baked attempt at a "competitive" team next year.

[TheDeau52]

6 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Haha.  This post is hilariously out of touch.  He is considered by everybody as a top 10 if not top 5 player in the game.

If you trade him you expect and get a better package than the one Detroit got for Verlander.

Letting him walk with QO would test, if not my fandom in full, my desire to spend any money on an Orioles product for quite a few years.  No games, no merchandise, nothing, I could easily walk away from supporting the team for a few years.  It would be gross incompetence on the part of the Orioles leadership especially if all we see is another half baked attempt at a "competitive" team next year.

I'm with you, and I think Dan and even Peter know this. They cannot let him hit free agency. Lock him up or trade him this off-season, any other path would alienate the knowledgeable part of our fan base. Even Peter doesn't want that to happen, fan favorite players aside.

[pastorfan]

13 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I thought that was a very stupid narrative by Heyman. The Orioles were $9 million apart is laughable. That's chump change these days. Few weeks ago, Cafardo speculated the Orioles would make a run at Machado this winter and if that fails they would unload him with the Mets, Marlins and Phils likely suitors.

They have to. No organization can be stupid enough to risk losing him at the end of the season for a lousy draft pick.  I'm also sure that DD can be trusted to do his best to help the organization beyond 2018, though his contract ends

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

If Machado's September is on a par with April, May and June and thus he will have had 2 good months of hitting in the season, what will another team see him as worth?

Should we any longer be thinking of him as perennial MVP comparable to Trout and Harper and thus worth $30 million per year?  We now how good he could be, but is that what he likely will be?

First of all, nobody is comparable to Trout.   Harper is a much better hitter than Manny when he's on his game, but he's been inconsistent year to year and quite injury prone, and doesn't have Manny's defensive impact.     I think Harper will get a bigger contract than Manny, at least by AAV, but they're on the same planet, which is different from Trout's planet.

Second, I think other teams will look at Manny's entire season and body of work, not at some month by month breakdown.    This hasn't been his best season, but if this is what a down year looks like for Manny, one can hardly complain.

That said, one year of Manny isn't going to bring back a king's ransom.      One year of a player's services just isn't something any team will mortgage the future to obtain.

 

[Pheasants]

4 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Haha.  This post is hilariously out of touch.  He is considered by everybody as a top 10 if not top 5 player in the game.

If you trade him you expect and get a better package than the one Detroit got for Verlander.

Letting him walk with QO would test, if not my fandom in full, my desire to spend any money on an Orioles product for quite a few years.  No games, no merchandise, nothing, I could easily walk away from supporting the team for a few years.  It would be gross incompetence on the part of the Orioles leadership especially if all we see is another half baked attempt at a "competitive" team next year.

In Spring everyone thought he was a top 5.  After this year is he still top 5?  Did everyone think he belonged in the All-Star game this year?  If next year matches this year, will everybody see him as top 30?  Is he the next Zach Britton? Will we be moaning at the 2018 trade deadline that we should have traded him this winter while his value was still high?  Perhaps his career trajectory will match Markakis.

Notice that most of this is worded in terms of maybes.  I just think we have to get off the cloud that Manny may be the next god of baseball.

[Pheasants]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

First of all, nobody is comparable to Trout.   Harper is a much better hitter than Manny when he's on his game, but he's been inconsistent year to year and quite injury prone, and doesn't have Manny's defensive impact.     I think Harper will get a bigger contract than Manny, at least by AAV, but they're on the same planet, which is different from Trout's planet.

Second, I think other teams will look at Manny's entire season and body of work, not at some month by month breakdown.    This hasn't been his best season, but if this is what a down year looks like for Manny, one can hardly complain.

That said, one year of Manny isn't going to bring back a king's ransom.      One year of a player's services just isn't something any team will mortgage the future to obtain.

 

I agree that no one is comparable to Trout, but look at evaluations of Manny before this year and you will find a lot of people who thought he was comparable to Trout.  Go find the people wondering if he or Harper would be the first $40 million per year player. My question basically is: Is this a down year or is this the future Manny where he, at times, looks more like Davis or Trumbo--HR or nothing--than the Manny we expect?

I actually want to sign him for 5 years at up to $30 mil per year and hope he plays for the next contract. At that much money, I expect the player we saw in July and August most of the time.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

In Spring everyone thought he was a top 5.  After this year is he still top 5?  Did everyone think he belonged in the All-Star game this year?  If next year matches this year, will everybody see him as top 30?  Is he the next Zach Britton? Will we be moaning at the 2018 trade deadline that we should have traded him this winter while his value was still high?  Perhaps his career trajectory will match Markakis.

Notice that most of this is worded in terms of maybes.  I just think we have to get off the cloud that Manny may be the next god of baseball.

I think Manny is probably not top 5, but he's up there.    The reason his contract will be huge is that he's reaching free agency at such a young age.   It just doesn't happen very often that a guy is a free agent going into his age 26 season.    

[Tx Oriole]

13 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I thought that was a very stupid narrative by Heyman. The Orioles were $9 million apart is laughable. That's chump change these days. Few weeks ago, Cafardo speculated the Orioles would make a run at Machado this winter and if that fails they would unload him with the Mets, Marlins and Phils likely suitors.

The FO will mess around and let Manny walk. To me the FO is not that intelligent when it comes to baseball matters. Letting your star player walk and spend millions on CD and Trumbo. IMO

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

I agree that no one is comparable to Trout, but look at evaluations of Manny before this year and you will find a lot of people who thought he was comparable to Trout.  Go find the people wondering if he or Harper would be the first $40 million per year player. My question basically is: Is this a down year or is this the future Manny where he, at times, looks more like Davis or Trumbo--HR or nothing--than the Manny we expect?

I actually want to sign him for 5 years at up to $30 mil per year and hope he plays for the next contract. At that much money, I expect the player we saw in July and August most of the time.

There's no point in expecting that signing Manny to a big deal will make him better or more consistent than he is.   But I think you don't appreciate sufficiently that a good chunk of Manny's value comes from his defense.    There are maybe three dozen players who are as good or better hitters than Machado, but probably only one or two of those have his defensive impact.   

I need to throw in one comment about Trout -- I think his contract was absurdly cheap, and so I don't use his $34 mm top salary as a baseline for anything.    In other words, I wouldn't say, "Manny is about 2/3 as good as Trout, who's making $34 mm the next two years, so that means Manny should get $22-23 mm/yr."    Trout's agent committed malpractice in my view.   If someone else gets paid as much or more, it won't mean that's because anyone thinks that player is as good or better than Trout.     It's simply because Trout's agent grossly undersold him.

[Tx Oriole]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

I'd never underestimate PA's ability to not see the forest through the trees.

You are right there. Never underestimate PA's inability to make smart baseball decisions.

[Sessh]

Well, Manny is having another dud month in September which would be four bad months out of six after finishing last season with two bad months out of three. So, what, that's six well below average months out of the last nine if September continues the way it has? That is significant and more than enough to say he has been a well below average offensive player for the majority of the time since July 2016.

As for top 5? Hmm... Trout, Judge, Betts, Lindor, Altuve, Cruz, Stanton, Harper, C. Seager and probably others I'm forgetting. That's 10 including Manny, so where does he rank there? His stock is falling, but not nearly enough to affect potential trade value... yet. He has been bad offensively far more than he's been good over the last nine months of baseball.

[joelala]

54 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Haha.  This post is hilariously out of touch.  He is considered by everybody as a top 10 if not top 5 player in the game.

If you trade him you expect and get a better package than the one Detroit got for Verlander.

Letting him walk with QO would test, if not my fandom in full, my desire to spend any money on an Orioles product for quite a few years.  No games, no merchandise, nothing, I could easily walk away from supporting the team for a few years.  It would be gross incompetence on the part of the Orioles leadership especially if all we see is another half baked attempt at a "competitive" team next year.

100% with you here.  I won't be able to stand for it.