How many Rule 5 eligible players will the O's protect?

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Thanks. I did not know Means had that velo, even in short stints.

I've seen 95 on the Bowie stadium gun more than once (although that is admittedly a little fast).  His delivery isn't near max effort so I'd say it's fair to assume a small jump in a shorter outing.

[JohnD]

You can make an argument for any of the first five.

My guess is it’s Harvey, Wynn, and Wilkerson as long as he suggests he can play SS in the fall league.  But if he struggles with the defense there they may take their chances.

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

They should protect one, Hunter Harvey.   I can make a pretty good case that it's a waste of 40 man space to protect Wynns, Hess, Means, Wilkerson, and the rest that have been mentioned.   Most were old for AA, are not real prospects, and are the types of guys the O's picked up for nothing last year.    The Orioles exposed Francisco Pena to waivers multiple times last year and not one team bit.   Pena is arguably a better player than Wynns.    Wilkerson is run of the mill utility guy and probably a grade below ML quality.   He turns 27 before next season.   Means is 25 and had mediocre AA numbers and poor splits against LHP's.     Hess had a decent season but it was a repeat of AA and it was good, not very good.   A lot will depend on how much room the O's have on the 40 man.    If there is a ton of room, my best guess is that they protect:

1. Harvey (no brainer)

2. Hess (he is potential bullpen arm and still a longshot starter candidate who finished strong at Bowie and just turned 24 over the summer)

3. Wynns (The Orioles, with Castillo likely departed, Sisco untested, and Pena departed have very little depth in catching at the upper levels.

                  They may determine that they want to make sure they don't lose Wynns going into ST.   However, I put the odds at someone picking Wynns and keeping him between slim and none.

Long? Lefty Luis Gonzalez?

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Gonzalez was 25 years old, in A+ ball and gave up 24 walks in 62 innings.   He's not even a prospect, IMO.    You can pick up 20 guys for very little (Paul Fry, Andrew Faulkner, Lucas Luetge, Richard Bleier, Tim Berry) who are at least just as talented but more polished and advanced for virtually nothing.   It makes zero sense to protect Luis Gonzalez.

Lucas Long had a nice season, arguably better than Hess at about the same age.   That's my point about protecting any of these guys.    Leave Long and Hess both unprotected.   Neither is a top prospect.    The chances of either or both getting picked and sticking with another team?   Slim and none.    Unless one of these guys project throwing 96+ out of the pen (not touching 96 but regularly at or above).    Both probably are middle relievers , at best, at the ML level.    Maybe one or both can become a setup guy.   But there are tons of guys with their profiles who available on waivers all of the time.     You throw guys like this against the wall and see what sticks.   You don't waste 40 man roster spots on them because you are afraid of losing them.     That being said, I'm not saying that the O's won't protect Hess or even Long.    Again, the only one I would protect is Harvey.   Then when Duquette does his usual spree of claiming and adding guys (Fry, Faulkner, etc.) we don't have to worry about losing a Long, Hess, Wynns etc. because they are clogging up the 40 man roster before they needed to.

If I was a scout for another team, I’d jump on the chance to grab Lucas Long.  He has two things that are hard to find in the same player in the rule 5 draft.  

A good fastball and good command.  He may not be more than middle relief but I’d say he’s as close to a sure thing to a decent middle reliever you’ll find in the rule 5.

[OrioleRedenbacher]

On 10/29/2017 at 12:09 PM, RZNJ said:

Gonzalez was 25 years old, in A+ ball and gave up 24 walks in 62 innings.   He's not even a prospect, IMO.    You can pick up 20 guys for very little (Paul Fry, Andrew Faulkner, Lucas Luetge, Richard Bleier, Tim Berry) who are at least just as talented but more polished and advanced for virtually nothing.   It makes zero sense to protect Luis Gonzalez.

Lucas Long had a nice season, arguably better than Hess at about the same age.   That's my point about protecting any of these guys.    Leave Long and Hess both unprotected.   Neither is a top prospect.    The chances of either or both getting picked and sticking with another team?   Slim and none.    Unless one of these guys project throwing 96+ out of the pen (not touching 96 but regularly at or above).    Both probably are middle relievers , at best, at the ML level.    Maybe one or both can become a setup guy.   But there are tons of guys with their profiles who available on waivers all of the time.     You throw guys like this against the wall and see what sticks.   You don't waste 40 man roster spots on them because you are afraid of losing them.     That being said, I'm not saying that the O's won't protect Hess or even Long.    Again, the only one I would protect is Harvey.   Then when Duquette does his usual spree of claiming and adding guys (Fry, Faulkner, etc.) we don't have to worry about losing a Long, Hess, Wynns etc. because they are clogging up the 40 man roster before they needed to.

If we don't add them don't we have to worry about losing them in the Rule 5.  I understand that's a little bit different than a waiver claim, but Hess, Long and Means can all easily be stashed in a bullpen/60 day DL situation.  All three of them show flashes of big league stuff. I don't think the O's will protect all three, and maybe none of the go in the Rule 5, but I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

November 20th is the deadline to put anyone on the 40 to keep then from being claimed. So we will find out this month!

[Redskins Rick]

On 10/25/2017 at 10:07 PM, phillyOs119 said:

I've seen 95 on the Bowie stadium gun more than once (although that is admittedly a little fast).  His delivery isn't near max effort so I'd say it's fair to assume a small jump in a shorter outing.

I like sitting behind the scouts and seeing the different radar numbers from their handheld guns and compare that to the scoreboard reading.

 

[Luke-OH]

44 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I like sitting behind the scouts and seeing the different radar numbers from their handheld guns and compare that to the scoreboard reading.

 

Yeah, if I could make it to a bunch of games, I’d be doing that.  I’m going to get to more next year.  I definitely don’t take scoreboard numbers as gospel.  I think the Bowie gun is about 2 mph fast. Scott hit 103 once, but sat 98-100 generally. Scouting reports have him touching 101, sitting 97-98.  Keller was sitting 97-98, reports have him in the 95-97 range.  

I watched about 75% of the Bowie games on milb.tv though.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, phillyOs119 said:

Yeah, if I could make it to a bunch of games, I’d be doing that.  I’m going to get to more next year.  I definitely don’t take scoreboard numbers as gospel.  I think the Bowie gun is about 2 mph fast. Scott hit 103 once, but sat 98-100 generally. Scouting reports have him touching 101, sitting 97-98.  Keller was sitting 97-98, reports have him in the 95-97 range.  

I watched about 75% of the Bowie games on milb.tv though.

I really like the stadium, not a bad seat in the entire stands.

Big trees and usually have a small breeze through there, even on the worse summer days.

Free parking, and while food/drink isn't cheap, its a bargain compared to OPACY prices.

You never know, watching those guys, if you are seeing the next Manny or Schoop, or bust.

I really like watching Yaz Jr play at Bowie, he really seamed like he had what it took, but not looking like it much anymore.

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I really like the stadium, not a bad seat in the entire stands.

Big trees and usually have a small breeze through there, even on the worse summer days.

Free parking, and while food/drink isn't cheap, its a bargain compared to OPACY prices.

You never know, watching those guys, if you are seeing the next Manny or Schoop, or bust.

I really like watching Yaz Jr play at Bowie, he really seamed like he had what it took, but not looking like it much anymore.

I like the stadium too, I just don’t like fighting beltway traffic to get there haha.

It’s not easy to see who will succeed at higher levels or else everyone would be a scout.  

I think the key (I’m no expert but I’m trying to learn and improve my eye all the time) is focusing on the process and not the results.  For example for infielders, it’s easy to judge a player based on whether they field the ball and successfully throw the guy out, but I think it’s more important to look at the first step, range, and the carry of the throw. For younger guys I’d prefer a guy who gets to a ton of balls and has a strong arm but throws the ball into the dugout a lot than a polished guy without many tools who makes every throw accurately.

For hitters a great example this year was Mountcastle vs Rosa. Rosa had good results, but he looked nothing like a major leaguer, he doesn’t have an athletic swing, and while he hits mistakes hard, he can’t hit a good breaking balls or velocity.  Mountcastle while he took awhile to adjust to AA pitching and was often in between at the plate, the swing is pretty and fast.  He has good leverage and swing plane, that will lead to a ton of power as he gets bigger.  He can handle velocity, capable of turning on upper 90s fastballs.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, phillyOs119 said:

I like the stadium too, I just don’t like fighting beltway traffic to get there haha.

It’s not easy to see who will succeed at higher levels or else everyone would be a scout.  

I think the key (I’m no expert but I’m trying to learn and improve my eye all the time) is focusing on the process and not the results.  For example for infielders, it’s easy to judge a player based on whether they field the ball and successfully throw the guy out, but I think it’s more important to look at the first step, range, and the carry of the throw. For younger guys I’d prefer a guy who gets to a ton of balls and has a strong arm but throws the ball into the dugout a lot than a polished guy without many tools who makes every throw accurately.

For hitters a great example this year was Mountcastle vs Rosa. Rosa had good results, but he looked nothing like a major leaguer, he doesn’t have an athletic swing, and while he hits mistakes hard, he can’t hit a good breaking balls or velocity.  Mountcastle while he took awhile to adjust to AA pitching and was often in between at the plate, the swing is pretty and fast.  He has good leverage and swing plane, that will lead to a ton of power as he gets bigger.  He can handle velocity, capable of turning on upper 90s fastballs.

Lucky for me, I can get to Bowie with no Beltway.

Thats why I really liked Yaz, he played the game, like a young Pete Rose.  A scampy kid at the plate, took what they threw him, and sprayed the ball around, yes, sometimes right at fielders, and when he ran, it was flat out, even on ground outs, and when he fielded the ball, he knew where he was going, no indecision and no throwing to the wrong cut-off man. It was easy to see, he cut his teeth on the game, with the proper instructions.

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Lucky for me, I can get to Bowie with no Beltway.

Thats why I really liked Yaz, he played the game, like a young Pete Rose.  A scampy kid at the plate, took what they threw him, and sprayed the ball around, yes, sometimes right at fielders, and when he ran, it was flat out, even on ground outs, and when he fielded the ball, he knew where he was going, no indecision and no throwing to the wrong cut-off man. It was easy to see, he cut his teeth on the game, with the proper instructions.

He just doesn’t have a carrying tool, but he sure makes the most out of the tools he has. I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually gets a chance as a 5th OF type, he’s got enough sneaky pop and good baseball instincts to have some value in a role like that. Probably not with the Orioles though, this is the deepest the O’s have been in OF prospects since I started seriously following the team in the late 90’s.

[bobmc]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

I like the stadium too, I just don’t like fighting beltway traffic to get there haha.

It’s not easy to see who will succeed at higher levels or else everyone would be a scout.  

I think the key (I’m no expert but I’m trying to learn and improve my eye all the time) is focusing on the process and not the results.  For example for infielders, it’s easy to judge a player based on whether they field the ball and successfully throw the guy out, but I think it’s more important to look at the first step, range, and the carry of the throw. For younger guys I’d prefer a guy who gets to a ton of balls and has a strong arm but throws the ball into the dugout a lot than a polished guy without many tools who makes every throw accurately.

For hitters a great example this year was Mountcastle vs Rosa. Rosa had good results, but he looked nothing like a major leaguer, he doesn’t have an athletic swing, and while he hits mistakes hard, he can’t hit a good breaking balls or velocity.  Mountcastle while he took awhile to adjust to AA pitching and was often in between at the plate, the swing is pretty and fast.  He has good leverage and swing plane, that will lead to a ton of power as he gets bigger.  He can handle velocity, capable of turning on upper 90s fastballs.

Thanks for this on Rosa.  I always wondered why he wasn't MLB status and now why Mountcastle is.

[Luke-OH]

Results and stats at the minor league level are so tricky. They should be used to make hypothesises that your eyes confirm or deny. Or help confirm or deny what you see. They aren’t something you can’t look at and determine with any regularity if a player will be successful at the next level.