Rule 5 Target - Nestor Cortes - LHP

[25 Nuggets]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Bottom line: it’s highly likely the O’s will need more than 8 pitchers to start a game in 2018.    But some will pitch only a few games, and they don’t all necessarily need to be established big league starters.

 

 

That's precisely what I mean.  Chances are we are going to see Cortes start a few games at least.  We will see then how he looks against major league hitters, and whether he will be worth the Rule 5 pick.

You can't expect your #7 SP+ to be a FA signing.

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, 25 Nuggets said:

That's precisely what I mean.  Chances are we are going to see Cortes start a few games at least.  We will see then how he looks against major league hitters, and whether he will be worth the Rule 5 pick.

You can't expect your #7 SP+ to be a FA signing.

We also shouldn't expect our #4 SP to be a Rule V pick.

[atomic]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I often wonder what people mean by a team needing 7 or 8 starters.   Here’s how many different pitchers have started a game during each year in the Duquette era, and how many of them started either 5+ or 10+ games:

2012: 12, 9, 8 (2 not in the organization on Opening Day)

2013: 14, 10, 6 (1)

2014: 7, 6, 6

2015: 8, 8, 6

2016: 9, 8, 8 (1)

2017: 11, 7, 6 (1)

Looking more broadly around MLB, last year 316 pitchers started a game — about 10.5 per team.  239 (8 per team) started 5 or more; 191 (6.4 per team) started 10 or more.   And, for what it’s worth, 56 of the 316 pitchers who started a game made their major league debut in 2017; 29 started 5 or more and 18 started 10 or more.   There’s another group of 73 who debuted in 2016, 13 of whom still haven’t made 5 starts.

Bottom line: it’s highly likely the O’s will need more than 8 pitchers to start a game in 2018.    But some will pitch only a few games, and they don’t all necessarily need to be established big league starters.

 

 

The reason some years you have so many pitchers starting who pitch a few games is you are searching for anyone to be successful.   It is no coincidence that in 2014 when we basically only had 6 starters start was the year we won the division.  When we signed Jiminez I said "He might suck but at least he isn't Freddie Garcia".  Here is the starters and the starts they had in 2013:

 

Tillman 33
Gonzalez 28
Hammel 23
Chen 23
Feldman 15
Freddy Garcia 10
Norris 9
Britton 7
Gausman 5
Arrieta 5
TJ McFarland 1
Josh Stinson 1
Steve Johnson 1
Jair Jurrjens 1

[now]

2 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

We also shouldn't expect our #4 SP to be a Rule V pick.

Now we can make it #5. Okay with that?

[LookitsPuck]

3 hours ago, now said:

Now we can make it #5. Okay with that?

Nope. 

Because if (when?) Cortes falters in a starting rotation, who takes his place? Ynoa? Wright? Castro? Asher?

That's my main problem. There isn't a reliable rotation out there for the Orioles, yet. Gausman, Bundy and Cashner. Tillman shouldn't be immediately penciled in because he had health/effectiveness issues late 2016 and pretty much all of 2017. That's not something to roll the dice with.

So, yeah. Ideally the O's sign one of Lynn or Cobb then they can take a chance with Tillman/Cortes in the 5 slot. 

It's probably best to see how Cortes pitches at all. He hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors, so probably better to treat him with kid gloves. I.e. start in middle relief. Then move up to higher leverage situations and stretch him out. Then start if effective and one (or many?) in the rotation falters.

[OFFNY]

o

 

Cortes stated that his 67 MPH-pitch was a sidearm-slider, and that it was once clocked at 47 MPH. ) *

 

6 OUTS:) 3 Groundouts,  3 Flyouts

 

NESTOR CORTEZ, JR.  ))))))  (vs. TWINS, 2/24) )))))) [ [Spring Training]

IP:.llll 2

H:lllll  1 )) (1 Double)

R:llllll 1

BB:.ll 0

SO:)l..0

Pitches: )  23 ) (16 )Strikes, .7)Balls)

2018 ERA: ) 4.50 ll (Spring Training)

2018 WHIP: )l 0.500  ll (Spring Training)  2 IP (1 H/BB)

2018 OPPONENTS BATTING AVG: l) .167 ll (Spring Training) )  1 for 6  ) 

 

PITCHES BY INNING

*******************

11 ll(8 lllStrikes,  lll31 lllBalls)

12 ll.(8 lllStrikes,  ll41  llBalls)

 

 

* )) Per Roch Kubatko

 

o

[Luke-OH]

I was calling that pitch a curveball, nice to hear it from him. I saw it as low as 58 in the video I watched on him from last year.

[Beef Supreme]

On Tuesday, January 9, 2018 at 6:00 PM, Luke-OH said:

I don’t think Castro has a starter’s delivery.

Would you explain your thought process on this?
I always thought Tillman does not have a "starter's delivery," but he has succeeded despite that.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Beef Supreme said:

Would you explain your thought process on this?
I always thought Tillman does not have a "starter's delivery," but he has succeeded despite that.

Talking about Castro not Cortes.

Plenty of guys can succeed without a “starter’s delivery” and I’m sure if you asked 5 different people you’d get five slightly different answers as to the definition of that phrase.

For me, it’s deliveries that lend themselves to commanding the ball and allow the pitcher to be able to hold their stuff in longer outings. While Castro’s delivery isn’t poor, it does feature a long arm action and moderate effort without a ton of leg drive. He doesn’t repeat it particularly well. Perhaps it’ll improve if he ever fills out his frame adding some strength.

Just to be clear, it’s just as much  lack of repertoire and so-so command. If he had 3 pitches he was confident with and could throw reasonably near where he wanted them I’d probably be more optimistic about him starting.

 

 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I was calling that pitch a curveball, nice to hear it from him. I saw it as low as 58 in the video I watched on him from last year.

So it's a more developed Eephus pitch?

[MDtransplant757]

3 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Cortes stated that his 67 MPH-pitch was a sidearm-slider, and that it was once clocked at 47 MPH. ) *

 

6 OUTS:) 3 Groundouts,  3 Flyouts

 

NESTOR CORTEZ, JR.  ))))))  (vs. TWINS, 2/24) )))))) [ [Spring Training]

IP:.llll 2

H:lllll  1 )) (1 Double)

R:llllll 1

BB:.ll 0

SO:)l..0

Pitches: )  23 ) (16 )Strikes, .7)Balls)

2018 ERA: ) 4.50 ll (Spring Training)

2018 WHIP: )l 0.500  ll (Spring Training)  2 IP (1 H/BB)

2018 OPPONENTS BATTING AVG: l) .167 ll (Spring Training) )  1 for 6  ) 

 

PITCHES BY INNING

*******************

11 ll(8 lllStrikes,  lll31 lllBalls)

12 ll.(8 lllStrikes,  ll41  llBalls)

 

 

* )) Per Roch Kubatko

 

o

Damn son. That’s great! 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Legend_Of_Joey said:

So it's a more developed Eephus pitch?

Not really, he throws it sidearm so it doesn’t seem like he slows his arm down nearly as much as guys throwing eephus pitches. It’s sweeping, kind of like a slower Darren O’Day slider with a softer, more horizontal break.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

6 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Not really, he throws it sidearm so it doesn’t seem like he slows his arm down nearly as much as guys throwing eephus pitches. It’s sweeping, kind of like a slower Darren O’Day slider with a softer, more horizontal break.

Gotcha. Gotta check him out. Hopefully he is throwing when I head to Florida. I'll try and get some video if I remember.

[Beef Supreme]

14 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Talking about Castro not Cortes.

Plenty of guys can succeed without a “starter’s delivery” and I’m sure if you asked 5 different people you’d get five slightly different answers as to the definition of that phrase.

For me, it’s deliveries that lend themselves to commanding the ball and allow the pitcher to be able to hold their stuff in longer outings. While Castro’s delivery isn’t poor, it does feature a long arm action and moderate effort without a ton of leg drive. He doesn’t repeat it particularly well. Perhaps it’ll improve if he ever fills out his frame adding some strength.

Just to be clear, it’s just as much  lack of repertoire and so-so command. If he had 3 pitches he was confident with and could throw reasonably near where he wanted them I’d probably be more optimistic about him starting.

 

 

I thought is was that he was separating his hands too early, or similar. To me, he looks like he throws very naturally -- not very coached up, not as refined in his mechanics to maximize his leverage -- compared to most MLB pitchers.

[Luke-OH]

29 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

I thought is was that he was separating his hands too early, or similar. To me, he looks like he throws very naturally -- not very coached up, not as refined in his mechanics to maximize his leverage -- compared to most MLB pitchers.

It does look a bit like a converted infielder delivery, natural motion. I would say natural motions are generally arm heavy and don’t take advantage of the lower half. Just my opinion, there are so many opinions on pitching mechanics though.

Also, for what it’s worth Castro’s delivery is a bit different than a couple years ago. He didn’t separate as soon and was a little more deliberate with his motions.