Manny ranked the no. 8 3B “right now” by MLB Network; Beckham ranked no. 10 SS

[wildbillhiccup]

If the "shredder" relies on last season so much then why isn't Rendon #1 on the list? Here's a break down by WAR for last season for context. 

 

#	Name	Team	Batting	Base Running	Fielding	Positional	Offense	Defense	League	Replacement	RAR	WAR	Dollars
1   Page size:  22 items in 1 pages
1	Anthony Rendon	Nationals	32.8	1.5	13.6	2.2	34.3	15.8	0.9	18.7	69.7	6.9	$55.5
2	Kris Bryant	Cubs	39.1	4.8	0.6	1.7	43.9	2.3	0.9	20.6	67.7	6.7	$53.9
3	Jose Ramirez	Indians	38.4	-0.9	4.1	2.3	37.5	6.3	2.3	19.9	66.1	6.6	$52.6
4	Nolan Arenado	Rockies	25.2	0.5	6.7	2.3	25.7	9.0	1.0	21.0	56.6	5.6	$45.1
5	Justin Turner	Dodgers	35.4	2.1	-0.6	1.2	37.5	0.6	0.8	16.8	55.6	5.5	$44.3
6	Eugenio Suarez	Reds	14.2	-1.3	6.1	2.2	12.9	8.3	0.9	19.5	41.7	4.1	$33.2
7	Alex Bregman	Astros	17.4	0.3	-4.2	2.8	17.6	-1.4	2.3	19.3	37.9	3.8	$30.1
8	Kyle Seager	Mariners	5.0	-0.9	6.2	2.3	4.2	8.5	2.3	20.1	35.1	3.5	$28.0
9	Travis Shaw	Brewers	14.9	-1.8	-0.4	1.9	13.1	1.5	0.9	18.7	34.2	3.4	$27.3
10	Todd Frazier	- - -	5.9	-2.0	5.8	0.5	3.9	6.3	2.1	17.8	30.0	3.0	$23.9
11	Joey Gallo	Rangers	15.4	4.6	-5.8	-3.8	20.0	-9.6	1.9	16.4	28.7	2.9	$22.9
12	Manny Machado	Orioles	1.9	-5.0	4.7	2.3	-3.1	7.0	2.5	21.3	27.7	2.8	$22.1
13	Josh Harrison	Pirates	2.7	2.2	2.2	1.4	4.9	3.6	0.8	16.8	26.0	2.6	$20.7
14	Jake Lamb	Diamondbacks	8.9	0.8	-6.9	2.1	9.7	-4.9	0.9	19.6	25.3	2.5	$20.2
15	Evan Longoria	Rays	-3.6	1.6	3.2	0.6	-2.0	3.8	2.4	20.9	25.1	2.5	$20.0
16	Mike Moustakas	Royals	10.0	-5.4	-3.1	0.0	4.6	-3.1	2.2	18.5	22.2	2.2	$17.6
17	Yolmer Sanchez	White Sox	-3.8	-1.3	6.6	1.1	-5.1	7.7	1.9	16.5	21.0	2.1	$16.7
18	Chase Headley	Yankees	2.5	1.0	-1.6	-3.0	3.6	-4.6	2.1	18.1	19.2	1.9	$15.3
19	Nick Castellanos	Tigers	8.7	-2.1	-13.2	0.2	6.7	-12.9	2.4	20.6	16.7	1.7	$13.3
20	David Freese	Pirates	0.1	-4.2	2.6	1.2	-4.1	3.9	0.7	15.5	16.0	1.6	$12.7
21	Asdrubal Cabrera	Mets	7.5	-8.9	-6.3	3.0	-1.4	-3.4	0.8	16.7	12.7	1.3	$10.1
22	Maikel Franco	Phillies	-19.2	-3.2	-4.7	1.8	-22.4	-3.0	0.9	19.3	-5.2	-0.5	($4.2

[brooksfrankjim]

I agree with the view that Manny is Beltre.  That means he is HoF caliber player, but right now there are a lot of HoF level third baseman.  I can’t imagine he would ge a $300 million contract.  I’m not sure gets $200 million unless someone is willing to go 9 or 10 years.  He was 90th ranked player in WAR.  Now, I don’t think there are 89 players better than Manny, but give or take there are arguably 25-30 players that are better.

It will be very interesting to see the deal he signs.

 

[wildbillhiccup]

45 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

If the "shredder" relies on last season so much then why isn't Rendon #1 on the list? Here's a break down by WAR for last season for context. 

 

#	Name	Team	Batting	Base Running	Fielding	Positional	Offense	Defense	League	Replacement	RAR	WAR	Dollars
1   Page size:    22 items in 1 pages
1	Anthony Rendon	Nationals	32.8	1.5	13.6	2.2	34.3	15.8	0.9	18.7	69.7	6.9	$55.5
2	Kris Bryant	Cubs	39.1	4.8	0.6	1.7	43.9	2.3	0.9	20.6	67.7	6.7	$53.9
3	Jose Ramirez	Indians	38.4	-0.9	4.1	2.3	37.5	6.3	2.3	19.9	66.1	6.6	$52.6
4	Nolan Arenado	Rockies	25.2	0.5	6.7	2.3	25.7	9.0	1.0	21.0	56.6	5.6	$45.1
5	Justin Turner	Dodgers	35.4	2.1	-0.6	1.2	37.5	0.6	0.8	16.8	55.6	5.5	$44.3
6	Eugenio Suarez	Reds	14.2	-1.3	6.1	2.2	12.9	8.3	0.9	19.5	41.7	4.1	$33.2
7	Alex Bregman	Astros	17.4	0.3	-4.2	2.8	17.6	-1.4	2.3	19.3	37.9	3.8	$30.1
8	Kyle Seager	Mariners	5.0	-0.9	6.2	2.3	4.2	8.5	2.3	20.1	35.1	3.5	$28.0
9	Travis Shaw	Brewers	14.9	-1.8	-0.4	1.9	13.1	1.5	0.9	18.7	34.2	3.4	$27.3
10	Todd Frazier	- - -	5.9	-2.0	5.8	0.5	3.9	6.3	2.1	17.8	30.0	3.0	$23.9
11	Joey Gallo	Rangers	15.4	4.6	-5.8	-3.8	20.0	-9.6	1.9	16.4	28.7	2.9	$22.9
12	Manny Machado	Orioles	1.9	-5.0	4.7	2.3	-3.1	7.0	2.5	21.3	27.7	2.8	$22.1
13	Josh Harrison	Pirates	2.7	2.2	2.2	1.4	4.9	3.6	0.8	16.8	26.0	2.6	$20.7
14	Jake Lamb	Diamondbacks	8.9	0.8	-6.9	2.1	9.7	-4.9	0.9	19.6	25.3	2.5	$20.2
15	Evan Longoria	Rays	-3.6	1.6	3.2	0.6	-2.0	3.8	2.4	20.9	25.1	2.5	$20.0
16	Mike Moustakas	Royals	10.0	-5.4	-3.1	0.0	4.6	-3.1	2.2	18.5	22.2	2.2	$17.6
17	Yolmer Sanchez	White Sox	-3.8	-1.3	6.6	1.1	-5.1	7.7	1.9	16.5	21.0	2.1	$16.7
18	Chase Headley	Yankees	2.5	1.0	-1.6	-3.0	3.6	-4.6	2.1	18.1	19.2	1.9	$15.3
19	Nick Castellanos	Tigers	8.7	-2.1	-13.2	0.2	6.7	-12.9	2.4	20.6	16.7	1.7	$13.3
20	David Freese	Pirates	0.1	-4.2	2.6	1.2	-4.1	3.9	0.7	15.5	16.0	1.6	$12.7
21	Asdrubal Cabrera	Mets	7.5	-8.9	-6.3	3.0	-1.4	-3.4	0.8	16.7	12.7	1.3	$10.1
22	Maikel Franco	Phillies	-19.2	-3.2	-4.7	1.8	-22.4	-3.0	0.9	19.3	-5.2	-0.5	($4.2

For anyone wondering, if Manny posted the same numbers as a SS he'd just sneak in the top 10 (for last season) in terms of WAR. I'd personally argue that he's top 3, because I wouldn't rank him behind players like  Cozart, Simmons, Gregorious, Andrus, Beckham, Bogaerts, and Segura. 

 

This is why he wants to play SS. A 25 year old top 3 SS is going to get paid more than a 25 year old fringe top 10 3B. 

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, brooksfrankjim said:

I agree with the view that Manny is Beltre.  That means he is HoF caliber player, but right now there are a lot of HoF level third baseman.  I can’t imagine he would ge a $300 million contract.  I’m not sure gets $200 million unless someone is willing to go 9 or 10 years.  He was 90th ranked player in WAR.  Now, I don’t think there are 89 players better than Manny, but give or take there are arguably 25-30 players that are better.

It will be very interesting to see the deal he signs.

 

The guy is 25 and has been worth $201 mm in less than 6 years per fangraphs.   He’s going to get $300 mm easily barring something catastrophic happening this year.   

[foxfield]

This is why I think so highly of the OH.  This thread right here.  We have folks who rant and we have kool aid specials too.  But what this place brings more often than not are threads like this.  Honest and thoughtful debate and discussion.

My two cents are this:

No one in Baseball is in the discussion as far as being worth as much as Trout.  It's really a shame but he may be the greatest of all time and it oddly seems to be drifting by.

Harper and Machado, will spend 2017 doing everything they can to position themselves for historic contracts, which they will likely both receive.

Yes, it is possible that neither exceed 300MM, but barring something completely unexpected I believe those are the floors.  Both players present risks at that amount or higher, but their ages going into next offseason present unusual opportunities that will reward both of them richly.

Biggest weakness for each?  In my opinion, for Harper, it is his health and I think it really is that simple.  If you can keep him on the field, I think he performs.  With Manny, I think it is harder to put a finger on it, but I will say it this way.  Manny has the talent, and I believe the durability to be great.  I wonder about his drive.  I wonder if he wants to be the best or considered to be one of the best.  At his level, that is a small thing.  But the former he has not achieved though it still appears to be within reach.  The latter, he has achieved.  I do not see a sense of urgency to move from one to the other and to me, that is potentially his weakness.  

 

[Frobby]

Here’s a list of the top 20 position players in fWAR over the last three years, according to what age they’ll be in the first season after they reach free agency (and what year that will be).   I think it gives you a good idea of how rare it is for a player of Manny’s ability to reach the FA market so young.

26

Bryce Harper (2019)

Manny Machado (2019)

27

Carlos Correa (2022)

28

Mookie Betts (2021)

Francisco Lindor (2022)

Corey Seager (2022)

29

Nolan Arenado (2020)

Mike Trout (2021)

30

Jorge Altuve (2020)

Kris Bryant (2022)

32

Lorenzo Cain (2018)

Brian Dozier (2019)

Mark Goldschmidt (2020)

Anthony Rizzo (2022)

Freddie Freeman (2022)

33

Josh Donaldson (2019)

36

Justin Turner (2021)

Buster Posey (2023)

40

Adrian Beltre (2019)

41

Joey Votto (2025)

I think all the listed guys who will be 30 and younger when they hit FA will get pretty huge deals.     But  when you have four years in front of you before you even hit your age 30 season, that’s a huge advantage.

 

 

 

[backwardsk]

19 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

For anyone wondering, if Manny posted the same numbers as a SS he'd just sneak in the top 10 (for last season) in terms of WAR. I'd personally argue that he's top 3, because I wouldn't rank him behind players like  Cozart, Simmons, Gregorious, Andrus, Beckham, Bogaerts, and Segura. 

 

This is why he wants to play SS. A 25 year old top 3 SS is going to get paid more than a 25 year old fringe top 10 3B. 

Lindor, Correa, Seager.  Who falls out?

[wildbillhiccup]

51 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Lindor, Correa, Seager.  Who falls out?

I'd personally rank him ahead of Seager, but I can see both sides of the argument. 

[Tony-OH]

On 1/15/2018 at 10:20 AM, Frobby said:

6 of his 7 playoff games were as a rookie who had been in the majors for two months, so I’m not really going to consider his playoff performance as relevant.   

That is your prerogative and I'm not saying it has a big effect due to the small sample size anyways, but what it does show is that Manny doesn't have a history of coming up big in big games like the playoffs. I don't think it means it hurts his value a ton, but I think if he had a record of being big in the playoffs it could help.

[backwardsk]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That is your prerogative and I'm not saying it has a big affect do to the small sample size anyways, but what it does show is that Manny doesn't have a history of coming up big in big games like the playoffs. I don't think it means it hurts his value a ton, but I think if he had a record of being big in the playoffs it could help.

Manny has a history of outslugging Mike Trout in the playoffs.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That is your prerogative and I'm not saying it has a big affect do to the small sample size anyways, but what it does show is that Manny doesn't have a history of coming up big in big games like the playoffs. I don't think it means it hurts his value a ton, but I think if he had a record of being big in the playoffs it could help.

Fair enough, and I suppose if Manny had a good postseason in 2012 it would be another feather in his cap.    But I’m much more likely to assign meaning to Adam Jones’ .155/.206/.207 line in 63 postseason PA in his age 26, 28 and 30 seasons, than to Manny’s .174/.240/.348 over 27 PA, almost all of which was accrued in his age 19 season.    I don’t think that teams pursuing Manny will give his postseason performance any serious weight.    

[Tony-OH]

On 1/15/2018 at 11:45 AM, wildbillhiccup said:

Great posts and points Tony. The only think I'd add is that I'm not sure he still can't do both (i.e., make the most money and leave behind a legacy). He's still young enough where people might quickly forget about his Oriole's days if he plays for the same team for the next 10 years. I also think the days of players spending their entire career with one team are all but over. 

Perhaps, but I think a legacy is more than putting up a numbers. A legacy is being known as one of the best for a team, usually a team you were drafted and developed by. It does bring up an interesting thought on what a legacy really is. Did Reggie Jackson leave a legacy with the Yankees for his Mr. October heroics? Despite those heroics, I doubt many Yankees fans would name to their top Yankees team.  

When I think legacy, I think of guys who when you name a team, you think of them. Obviously legacy Orioles would be Brooks, Palmer, Cal and Weaver. But some might argue that Frank Robinson and Eddie Murray left a legacy here as well. Now I'm partial to Eddie because he WAS the Orioles when I was growing up, but at the end of the day, the Orioles won only World Series during his time and he spent 8 season out of an Orioles uniform.

So I guess I have to wonder can Machado still leave a legacy with another team? When I think about it, he does have time but it would probably have to be with a team without a long history of legacy players. In other words, could he become a legacy player with some team like the Diamondbacks or Rockies? Probably. But I doubt he would if he became a Red Sox, Yankee, or Dodger. 

It's an interesting thought. But I do know is the Orioles are the only team in which he could end up one of the greatest players ever. The Orioles are really the only team in which he has a chance to one day be considered for the team's "Mt Rushmore". 

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fair enough, and I suppose if Manny had a good postseason in 2012 it would be another feather in his cap.    But I’m much more likely to assign meaning to Adam Jones’ .155/.206/.207 line in 63 postseason PA in his age 26, 28 and 30 seasons, than to Manny’s .174/.240/.348 over 27 PA, almost all of which was accrued in his age 19 season.    I don’t think that teams pursuing Manny will give his postseason performance any serious weight.    

Again, I don't think teams are going to drop his value because of what he did mostly at 19, but if he had that feather in his cap his value would be much more in my opinion. Basically he's a post season unknown. Of course his career .240/.296/.406/.702 slash line in 611 Sep/Oct PAs could be an indicator of a guy who either gets tired late in the year or who doesn't do well in pennant races (the Orioles have been in the mix in September for most of his career).

If I'm giving a guy $300 million i want to make sure he's at his best when the lights are the brightest.

[backwardsk]

I would say that Bonds left a legacy in San Francisco.  He left Pittsburgh two years later than Manny.  

When I think of the Braves.  Greg Maddox comes to mind though he came up with the Cubs.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Again, I don't think teams are going to drop his value because of what he did mostly at 19, but if he had that feather in his cap his value would be much more in my opinion. Basically he's a post season unknown. Of course his career .240/.296/.406/.702 slash line in 611 Sep/Oct PAs could be an indicator of a guy who either gets tired late in the year or who doesn't do well in pennant races (the Orioles have been in the mix in September for most of his career).

If I'm giving a guy $300 million i want to make sure he's at his best when the lights are the brightest.

Manny's Sept./Oct. performance would probably worry me a bit if I were a GM.