Luke's Top 50 Orioles Prospects!

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

The command issues are not what bothers me so much.  It's the lack of swing and miss and the fact that he gets hit around despite the plus fastball at such a low level.  

It seems like he has a lot to overcome and his future could be in the pen, if that fastball gets up into the upper 90's like you suspect. 

With both Peluffo and Dietz, the fastball is more a weak contact pitch than a K pitch (although Peluffo’s does miss some bats). The issue is they don’t throw their offspeed pitches well enough or close enough to the plate to rack up strikeouts.  The lack of strikeouts is a command issue in their cases (although I doubt Dietz is ever going to be a big K guy, even if he hits his ceiling, more a keep the ball in the park, innings eater).

Command generally improves for tall pitchers later. Obviously both of these guys are long shots, well in the 20s of O’s prospects, but I’d bet one of these two will end up making a jump next year.

[Luke-OH]

#11-20 up now

[mdbdotcom]

21 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

#11-20 up now

Very informative. Thanks!

[ReclaimTheCrown]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

#11-20 up now

Thanks for the write-ups. This is terrific, as they all have been. You say that Lowther’s fastball lacks “plane”; what do you mean by that?

[sportsfan8703]

Great work. Peluffo and Bishop could easily be in the top 10 by the end of the year. I like that we have prospect depth though. We don’t have to scour short season ball to fill out these lists. 

[VaBird1]

These write-ups are fantastic.  Thanks for doing them.

[clapdiddy]

Agree with what everyone says here, Luke.   These write-ups are great reading.  

[Il BuonO]

2 hours ago, ReclaimTheCrown said:

Thanks for the write-ups. This is terrific, as they all have been. You say that Lowther’s fastball lacks “plane”; what do you mean by that?

Usually worded “downward plane”. I’m assuming that’s what was meant here. If Lowther is 6’2” and has a low 3/4 arm slot he won’t create as much of an angle.

[Just Regular]

Reyes, Santander, and then presumably a Top 10 with Hays, Sisco, Mullins, Mountcastle and Stewart are a nice batch.  By Schoop's first FA season 2020, that could be the entire lineup except shortstop, once Mancini and Davis are added in.  

That Duquette bought Manny Ramirez, Angelos splurged for Davis, and that the 2020 team's payroll structure could be...

1B Davis - $21M (and a platoon partner - Santander or Reyes/Mountcastle 3B loser)

2B Beckham - Arb4

SS Machado - ???

3B - Reyes/Mountcastle winner - 0-3

LF - Santander/Stewart/Mountcastle winner - 0-3

CF - Mullins - 0-3

RF - Hays - 0-3

DH - Mancini - Arb1

OF4 - Santander/Stewart/Mountcastle loser - 0-3

...gives me my little bit of hope that we could support a requisite Machado FA salary early next decade.  

But it's all moot if Bundy, Gausman, Harvey and one or two others don't show in 2018 they are a viable pitching core for Machado to bestow his prime upon.  My glimmer of hope for Machado has me agnostic at best at putting a $15M + number on 2019-2020 for some mediocre mid rotation guy.

[weams]

1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

Reyes, Santander, and then presumably a Top 10 with Hays, Sisco, Mullins, Mountcastle and Stewart are a nice batch.  By Schoop's first FA season 2020, that could be the entire lineup except shortstop, once Mancini and Davis are added in.  

That Duquette bought Manny Ramirez, Angelos splurged for Davis, and that the 2020 team's payroll structure could be...

1B Davis - $21M (and a platoon partner - Santander or Reyes/Mountcastle 3B loser)

2B Beckham - Arb4

SS Machado - ???

3B - Reyes/Mountcastle winner - 0-3

LF - Santander/Stewart/Mountcastle winner - 0-3

CF - Mullins - 0-3

RF - Hays - 0-3

DH - Mancini - Arb1

OF4 - Santander/Stewart/Mountcastle loser - 0-3

...gives me my little bit of hope that we could support a requisite Machado FA salary early next decade.  

But it's all moot if Bundy, Gausman, Harvey and one or two others don't show in 2018 they are a viable pitching core for Machado to bestow his prime upon.  My glimmer of hope for Machado has me agnostic at best at putting a $15M + number on 2019-2020 for some mediocre mid rotation guy.

But. Manny is going to go to FA no matter what is offered. And he will take the highest bid. 

[ReclaimTheCrown]

27 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Usually worded “downward plane”. I’m assuming that’s what was meant here. If Lowther is 6’2” and has a low 3/4 arm slot he won’t create as much of an angle.

Thanks, that makes sense that he’d get some run but not as much dive.

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, weams said:

But. Manny is going to go to FA no matter what is offered. And he will take the highest bid. 

Sure.  The hope is the Bundy/Mancini/Hays/Gausman core of the early 2020's projects to have enough average regulars everywhere else on the diamond but SS for the org to compete to the $40M level to retain the franchise SS.

I give it maybe a 10% shot, with the driver being the org's 5 best pitchers collectively hit their 90th percentile this year so our $400M isn't Confederate.

 

[weams]

19 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Sure.  The hope is the Bundy/Mancini/Hays/Gausman core of the early 2020's projects to have enough average regulars everywhere else on the diamond but SS for the org to compete to the $40M level to retain the franchise SS.

I give it maybe a 10% shot, with the driver being the org's 5 best pitchers collectively hit their 90th percentile this year so our $400M isn't Confederate.

 

Nothing is confederate any longer. There is only so much money and so many places for these players. Anyone who spends 400 million will get their man.  I think what we are finding, is that there is no place in this game for the 400 million dollar man. Whatever be his name. 

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, ReclaimTheCrown said:

Thanks, that makes sense that he’d get some run but not as much dive.

@Il BuonO is on it. Lowther has plenty of life on his fastball but my main concern is that it’ll get put in the air a lot against advanced hitters. Now I think his ability to command the pitch will alleviate some of that, but it’s still a concern.

[Frobby]

I think Adam Hall is one of the most important prospects in this group.    It’s not like the organization is bursting with middle infield prospects.