Camden Depot: Nick threatened to kick John Hart where it hurts.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

There's a slight, SLIGHT chance he could make a run at 3,000.  Odds are stacked against him, he doesn't hit for enough power to be a DH for anyone and his defense is declining.  

I think we'd all be rooting for him, though.  It'd make him the first guy to get 3,000 hits, most likely never be an all star and certainly not make the hall of fame.  But he'd be in a pretty select class.  

ESPN has a little app that runs the Bill James Favorite Toy, which is a simple tool James came up with in the 80s to project odds of reaching a goal like 3000 hits.  It says Nick has a 28% chance at 3000 hits.  That feels a little high, but I think it's reasonable.  It says his likely career total will end up just short of 2800.

Here's your totally obscure Drungo historical reference for Monday, March 5th 2018:
If Nick Markakis played in the 60s and 70s he'd be Rusty Staub.
If he played in the 30s and 40s he'd be Doc Cramer.
And if he played at the turn of the last century he'd be Lave Cross.

I suggested to my wife that we name one of the boys Lave, and she casually tossed it aside in the bucket with Gaius and Zoltan and Wolfgang.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

ESPN has a little app that runs the Bill James Favorite Toy, which is a simple tool James came up with in the 80s to project odds of reaching a goal like 3000 hits.  It says Nick has a 28% chance at 3000 hits.  That feels a little high, but I think it's reasonable.  It says his likely career total will end up just short of 2800.

Here's your totally obscure Drungo historical reference for Monday, March 5th 2018:
If Nick Markakis played in the 60s and 70s he'd be Rusty Staub.
If he played in the 30s and 40s he'd be Doc Cramer.
And if he played at the turn of the last century he'd be Lave Cross.

I suggested to my wife that we name one of the boys Lave, and she casually tossed it aside in the bucket with Gaius and Zoltan and Wolfgang.

I could see her not being for Gaius, Zoltan and Lave but...Wolfgang is an awesome name.  

See if you can go for Samus.  

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I could see her not being for Gaius, Zoltan and Lave but...Wolfgang is an awesome name.  

See if you can go for Samus.  

His nickname would be Wolfie!

But this was a decade ago, we're long past having kids.  I have a good friend who somehow got his wife to agree to Seamus for their youngest.  The boy almost has to grow up grizzled, with muttonchops, fighting the $#@% Brits in Northern Ireland.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

His nickname would be Wolfie!

But this was a decade ago, we're long past having kids.  I have a good friend who somehow got his wife to agree to Seamus for their youngest.  The boy almost has to grow up grizzled, with muttonchops, fighting the $#@% Brits in Northern Ireland.

Wolfie is the best nickname.

I was going for Samus as in Metroid.  But yes, the name Seamus automatically means having some piss and vinegar.  

Anyway, Markakis kicks ass.  Here's to seeing him chase 3k.

[Beef Supreme]

13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

ESPN has a little app that runs the Bill James Favorite Toy, which is a simple tool James came up with in the 80s to project odds of reaching a goal like 3000 hits.  It says Nick has a 28% chance at 3000 hits.  That feels a little high, but I think it's reasonable.  It says his likely career total will end up just short of 2800.

When I read this I was thinking that he must have accumulated 2,500 hits by now.

8% seems "a little high."
28% seems impossibly high.
2% sounds reasonable.

[Redskins Rick]

39 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I hope Nick likes the game enough that he sticks around a long time.  I was against re-signing him at Braves prices, but I've always thought he was a good guy and one of my favorite players.

He's sitting on 2052 career hits.  Last four years he's averaged 171 hits.  If he keeps playing and declines by five hits a year he'll reach 3000 hits during his age-41 season in 2025.  He's in no way a Hall of Famer, but that would be pretty cool.

I will be there to cheer him on, when he gets placed in the Oriole HOF!!!!!!!

I agree with you, love the guy, but not at the Brave prices.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

When I read this I was thinking that he must have accumulated 2,500 hits by now.

8% seems "a little high."
28% seems impossibly high.
2% sounds reasonable.

It comes down to how quickly he declines to a point where he's not going to be resigned, or relegated to bench duty.  And how long he wants to play. 

He's had an OPS+ between 88 and 109 for seven of the last nine years.  He hasn't had a typical career where he peaks around 27 and slide down from there.  He might fall off the table any year, but he might just keep hitting .280 with a .720 OPS for the next decade.  Like I said, if he just declines by five hits a year he'll hit 3000 around age 40.  I don't think that 28% is impossibly high for that to happen.

Nick has 2052 hits and a 110 OPS+. Paul Molitor had 1870 hits through 33, with a 121 OPS+.  He got there.  Lou Brock had 2001 hits with a 113 OPS+, he got over 3000.  Alan Trammell had 2022 and a 113 OPS+, he ended up with only 2365.  George Kell had 1962 hits and a 112 OPS+, he only got about 100 more hits.  Brooks ended up with 2842 after having 2099 at Nick's age.

If I had to guess, what'll happen is that he continues to hit about as well, but injuries and declining defense will erode his playing time.  He could be an NL 4th/5th OF and pinch hitter into his 40s, but he'll retire quietly with about 2700 hits.

[bpilktree]

I don't see Nick hanging on like some guys though.  I could actually see him hang it up after this season and head home to be with the family and spending his life in the outdoors hunting. 

[Just Regular]

He's only had a few hundred career PA in the bottom half of the order, but Albies's emergence probably puts him down lower this year.

Atlanta's park is cozy, and I hope Nick has a little power harvest in his 30's.  Inciarte, Albies, Freeman, Acuna will probably be the top half before long - if Nick can get the 5 hole behind that OBP, I could see him surprising with a roto-friendly 15/85 kind of production.

Catcher, Camargo and Swanson not much threat this year to him hanging on to hitting 5th.

[Beef Supreme]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

It comes down to how quickly he declines to a point where he's not going to be resigned, or relegated to bench duty.  And how long he wants to play.

He's had an OPS+ between 88 and 109 for seven of the last nine years.  He hasn't had a typical career where he peaks around 27 and slide down from there.  He might fall off the table any year, but he might just keep hitting .280 with a .720 OPS for the next decade.  Like I said, if he just declines by five hits a year he'll hit 3000 around age 40.  I don't think that 28% is impossibly high for that to happen.

Nick has 2052 hits and a 110 OPS+. Paul Molitor had 1870 hits through 33, with a 121 OPS+.  He got there.  Lou Brock had 2001 hits with a 113 OPS+, he got over 3000.  Alan Trammell had 2022 and a 113 OPS+, he ended up with only 2365.  George Kell had 1962 hits and a 112 OPS+, he only got about 100 more hits.  Brooks ended up with 2842 after having 2099 at Nick's age.

If I had to guess, what'll happen is that he continues to hit about as well, but injuries and declining defense will erode his playing time.  He could be an NL 4th/5th OF and pinch hitter into his 40s, but he'll retire quietly with about 2700 hits.

Seems optimistic. After this contract expires, Markakis is unlikely to get another 4-year deal. A 2-year deal might be the best offered him this upcoming winter. He will need to shuttle around to different teams in need of short-term outfield help if he wants to get 500+ plate appearances each year.

Paul Molitor was a far superior hitter -- plus he had power which Markakis has not had for a long time -- who had settled in as DH by Nick's age. Is there a team that would want Markakis as their full-time DH? I can't see it. Molitor's age 41 season compares well to Nick's age 33 season! Lou Brock kept batting .300 through age 37 and had speed, which Nick has not had for a long time.

Nick has dropped to the ~.270 BA level the past two years with @ 160 hits per year in full-time play. Between the declines in speed and power as well as defense, I can't foresee Markakis having the opportunity to step into the batter's box 4,000 more times. That's about how many plate appearances it would to tally 942 hits for the aging, slowing player. Assuming 500 PAs per year, that has him playing nearly full-time through the age of 41. And even then, he would have to hit like he has in his age 32 and 33 seasons.

 

[LookitsPuck]

For everybody that complains about Angelos meddling and pushing for players...you'd think Markakis would have been an easy slam dunk.

Looks to me in this case, Duquette got what he wanted.

And personally I didn't think it was wise to let Markakis walk and then make your prized offseason signing Travis freaking Snider. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

For everybody that complains about Angelos meddling and pushing for players...you'd think Markakis would have been an easy slam dunk.

Looks to me in this case, Duquette got what he wanted.

And personally I didn't think it was wise to let Markakis walk and then make your prized offseason signing Travis freaking Snider. 

But Markakis had issues with his medicals.

Kinda immovable object meets irresistible force.

[TommyPickles]

I love Markakis. He and Jones are two of my favorite Orioles of all time (I’m 27). 

Looking over his baseball reference page, it seems like he’s been pretty decent for the Braves too. .357 OBP over his three years there. Played an average of 158 games a season. And he’s been worth 4.3 rWAR over those years. Not too shabby at all.

Question: Do you think he could be elected to the Orioles Hall of Fame?

-Nine years playing for us

-Two gold gloves 

- .793 OPS, .358 OBP, .290 Avg as an Oriole

- Something like 25 WAR as an Oriole

- Helped span the (mini) New Golden Era 2012-2016

- Fan favorite and team leader

 

He’s got my vote.

 

[Moose Milligan]

He's a slam dunk Orioles hall of famer.  Jones, too.

No power, but he still whacked 39 doubles last year.  He'll probably retire in the top 100 all time in doubles.  

I always thought he was going to be a 28-33 homer guy at his peak.  Really not sure where his long ball capabilities went.  

[25 Nuggets]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

He's a slam dunk Orioles hall of famer.  Jones, too.

No power, but he still whacked 39 doubles last year.  He'll probably retire in the top 100 all time in doubles.  

I always thought he was going to be a 28-33 homer guy at his peak.  Really not sure where his long ball capabilities went.  

My guess is he is happy with himself as a ballplayer.  He doesn't want to turn into a hulking monster that gets hurt all the time (steroids) or a guy that strikes out a lot, or worries about his launch angle, etc.