Cobb to Orioles (Confirmed by Roch Kubatko)

[weams]

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Hank Scorpio said:

For me it's more concern for the future than anything else. When you've gone through 14 consecutive losing seasons because of bad baseball decisions, I think one gets a little gun shy. The Orioles margin for error in this division is razor thin.

Corn put it very succinctly last night:

Every year, they put the most competitive ML team on the field with the resources available.

Even if the chances of the ML being competitive are slim. When you take that approach you end up not getting appropriate value for guys like Britton & Machado. When you don't really attempt to re-sign guys like Machado (and more recently) Schoop in their arb years, you're not planning for the future. To me that is irresponsible.

I will agree that 14 years of extremely stupid decisions makes one gun shy.

I think the organization is little more sound fundamentally now, then before. I know, some will disagree.

While we dont always agree with their decisions, this isn't the Syd thrift and Flanny era of running the team.

[weams]

[foxfield]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But what's the difference here?  Let's say semi-best case he gets back to the two years before the surgery.  He's at 170 innings of a 2.80, good for around four wins.  Don't want to be too negative, but doesn't this make the likely case 79 wins instead of 75?

With all due respect, I think this is pretty flawed.  And I have waited a couple of hours to try and refute it.  Because first of all, I think you have a much better understanding of metrics than I.  But this is wrong in my opinion because you are valuing Cobb at about 4 wins which as you say is likely the semi-best case.  I'm not disputing Cobb's value for sake of this but conceding it.  However, his actual value tp Baltimore is +4 PLUS whatever negative number he is replacing.  To be a 75 win team lets assume that the Orioles #4 and #5 SP are a combined -4WAR.  Last year to win only 75 games, the Orioles #4 and #5 pitched to a 6.81 (Ubaldo) and 7.84 (Tillman) ERA.  I think if you add semi-best assumption for Cobb at +4 you have to also compare the difference to what he is replacing which is historically bad.  

To paraphrase your intent I believe...I don't want to be too positive but doesn't this make the likely case the Orioles are at least a 82 win team and need much less to go right than yesterday to be a playoff contending team?

[mcgraw238]

27 minutes ago, atomic said:

Yeah but some people don't offer real suggestions on how to operate the team. They would be negative no matter what the team did.  I highly doubt some of them are fans of the team.  And if the team did listen to what they said the team would win 45 games a year. 

 

27 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

True, critical for discussion sake, and I can respect the difference of opinion and agree to disagree.

But there are a couple that are clearly so negative on every single move, that its trollish.

Those are the types you simply ignore, not worth the time, and there are some that advocate signing every free agent under the moon under a "MASN Money" theory; I ignore those as well. Signing Cobb is a good move for the franchise, it's the type of move that a well-managed franchise makes. This move doesn't change my opinion that the O's have been poorly managed under Angelos, nor does it change my opinion that DD is capable of better if he was free of the restrains imposed by the Angelos family. Now I see we have a new thread calling for the worship at the Angelos shrine simply because they make a move that most franchises make every offseason. 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, mcgraw238 said:

 

Those are the types you simply ignore, not worth the time, and there are some that advocate signing every free agent under the moon under a "MASN Money" theory; I ignore those as well. Signing Cobb is a good move for the franchise, it's the type of move that a well-managed franchise makes. This move doesn't change my opinion that the O's have been poorly managed under Angelos, nor does it change my opinion that DD is capable of better if he was free of the restrains imposed by the Angelos family. Now I see we have a new thread calling for the worship at the Angelos shrine simply because they make a move that most franchises make every offseason. 

The Orioles have been poorly managed, but I for one, believe its a different organization than the dark era.

I dont think any of us, know how much influence the sons have currently, and how they will do after daddy leaves this world.

I am going to give the team credit for a good off-season, and yet, at the same time, acknowledge they still have work to do.

 

[Greg]

wow

 

 

[Yardball85]

5 minutes ago, Greg said:

wow

 

 

So it's like 4 years 47 because of time value of money... O's love their deferrals.

[Yardball85]

Dilly Dilly!

[MDtransplant757]

1 minute ago, Yardball85 said:

Dilly Dilly!

 

[mcgraw238]

29 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

The Orioles have been poorly managed, but I for one, believe its a different organization than the dark era.

I dont think any of us, know how much influence the sons have currently, and how they will do after daddy leaves this world.

I am going to give the team credit for a good off-season, and yet, at the same time, acknowledge they still have work to do.

 

That's a reasonable analysis for me

[Orioles0615]

Wonder if Cobb will get in a spring game hopefullt

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But what's the difference here?  Let's say semi-best case he gets back to the two years before the surgery.  He's at 170 innings of a 2.80, good for around four wins.  Don't want to be too negative, but doesn't this make the likely case 79 wins instead of 75?

So, then don’t spend the money because the difference is negligible. Why I said I’d prefer Lynn at one year. Then, they wouldn’t have the money tied up for three years while the team is likely in a rebuild. Or, not using the “r” word, playing a bunch of kids as yet unproven at the ML level.

[Hank Scorpio]

37 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I will agree that 14 years of extremely stupid decisions makes one gun shy.

I think the organization is little more sound fundamentally now, then before. I know, some will disagree.

While we dont always agree with their decisions, this isn't the Syd thrift and Flanny era of running the team.

Yessir I agree with that as well. It's just difficult for me to swallow losing a guy like Manny for a draft pick, high a pick as it may be.

Obviously I would prefer the Orioles to be 45-23 at the break and leading the division, of course I want that. If they win the World Series, I will happily wear the egg. Then maybe Manny will take a hometown discount... pffffffffffffffffffffft.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Hank Scorpio said:

Yessir I agree with that as well. It's just difficult for me to swallow losing a guy like Manny for a draft pick, high a pick as it may be.

Obviously I would prefer the Orioles to be 45-23 at the break and leading the division, of course I want that. If they win the World Series, I will happily wear the egg. Then maybe Manny will take a hometown discount... pffffffffffffffffffffft.

I dont want to lose Manny, anymore than I wanted to see Mussina leave.