A summary of our rotation

[Frobby]

Just thought it might be nice to have all this information in one spot.     I'll list the five starters by age.

Andrew Cashner:   Age 31, born 9/11/86.   Controlled through 2019 (option for 2020 that vests at 340 IP in 2018-19, becomes player option at 360 IP).

Career: 137 starts, 893 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 102 ERA+, 42-64 W/L.

2017: 28 starts, 166.2 IP, 3.40 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 138 ERA+, 11-11 W/L.

Best: 26 starts, 175 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 111 ERA+, 10-9 W/L (note: I am only including seasons of 162+ IP

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cashnan01.shtml

 

Alex Cobb:   Age 30, born 10/7/87.    Controlled through 2021.

Career: 115 starts, 700 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 111 ERA+, 48-35 W/L.

2017: 29 starts, 179.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 113 ERA+, 12-10 W/L.

Best: 27 starts, 166.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 130 ERA+, 10-9 W/L )

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cobbal01.shtml

 

Chris Tillman:   Age 30, born 4/15/88.   Controlled through 2018.

Career: 198 starts, 1118.1 IP, 4.43 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 94 ERA+, 73-55 W/L

2017: 19 starts, 93.0 IP, 7.84 ERA, 6.93 FIP, 55 ERA+. 1-7 W/L

Best: 33 starts, 206.1 IP, 3.34 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 118 ERA+, 13-6 W/L

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tillmch01.shtml

 

Kevin Gausman:  Age 27, born 1/6/91.   Controlled through 2020.

Career: 106 starts, 639.2 IP, 4.18 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 101 ERA+, 34-43 W/L

2017: 34 starts, 186.2 IP, 4.68 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 93 ERA+, 11-12 W/L

Best: 30 starts, 179.2 IP, 3.61 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 119 ERA+, 9-12 W/L.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gausmke01.shtml

 

Dylan Bundy: Age 25, born 11/15/92.   Controlled through 2021.

Career: 42 starts, 281.0 IP, 4.13 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 105 ERA+, 23-15 W/L.

2017: 28 starts, 169.2 IP, 4.24 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 102 ERA+, 13-9 W/L.

Best: 2017 (didn't qualify previously).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bundydy01.shtml

 

So what do you see as a mid-case scenario, or a realistic best case scenario (where not every single thing goes perfectly, but more things go right than wrong)?     The mid-case is difficult because Tillman is hard to assess, but here's what I'd say:

Mid-case: 750 IP, 4.30 ERA.

Realistic best case: 850 IP, 3.90 ERA

I can imagine 2014ish scenarios where we outdo a 3.90 ERA, but I think those are greater than 10-1 odds.

 

 

 

 

[Aristotelian]

Back of the napkin, I think their overall career norms probably average out close to 4.00, significantly better than your midcase. I think our defense will be improved and for whatever reason Castillo was really bad for our pitchers last year. I think you could be a little more optimistic. 4.15 for the mid case, 3.75 for the realistic best case. 

Also, I know it won't happen, but I would like to see Cortes in the rotation and Tillman in the bullpen. 

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

It is absolutely incredible how signing Cobb drastically improves the outlook on the starting rotation. I love the Orioles bullpen but I hope we see them pitch alot less this year. It gets old seeing the bullpen pitch 3 to 4 innings every game. I want to see one of our starters pitch seven inning's or more for a change.

[DrungoHazewood]

Here's the number of starters the O's have used (min 5 starts) since 2012: 9, 10, 6, 8, 8, 7

It's pretty likely that the #6, 7, and 8 starters will get some time in the rotation this year.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Here's the number of starters the O's have used (min 5 starts) since 2012: 9, 10, 6, 8, 8, 7

It's pretty likely that the #6, 7, and 8 starters will get some time in the rotation this year.

Which is why I am surprise more teams are not thinking about 6 man rotations.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Which is why I am surprise more teams are not thinking about 6 man rotations.

It's always a tradeoff between getting your best pitchers the most innings, and keeping them effective and healthy.  And the balance in roster construction. 

Are your six starters more effective and healthy enough to offset the fact that you're taking starts from your best five and giving them to the 6th-best starter on purpose?  Can the workload be handled in the pen, given a 25-man roster?

For example, last year, would it have made any sense to take five starts from each of Gausman, Bundy, and the others and give that to whomever the 6th-best starter was (say, Asher or Wright or Ynoa?)

[backwardsk]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Here's the number of starters the O's have used (min 5 starts) since 2012: 9, 10, 6, 8, 8, 7

It's pretty likely that the #6, 7, and 8 starters will get some time in the rotation this year.

Off the top of my head, those six guys in 2014 started 161, if I remember correctly.

[jtschrei]

I will take 750 innings right now. 

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

It's always a tradeoff between getting your best pitchers the most innings, and keeping them effective and healthy.  And the balance in roster construction. 

Are your six starters more effective and healthy enough to offset the fact that you're taking starts from your best five and giving them to the 6th-best starter on purpose?  Can the workload be handled in the pen, given a 25-man roster?

For example, last year, would it have made any sense to take five starts from each of Gausman, Bundy, and the others and give that to whomever the 6th-best starter was (say, Asher or Wright or Ynoa?)

A fresher Bundy does appear to pitch better.

Maybe the time has come to increase the 25 man roster and slow down the shuttle bus to the minors?

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Here's the number of starters the O's have used (min 5 starts) since 2012: 9, 10, 6, 8, 8, 7

It's pretty likely that the #6, 7, and 8 starters will get some time in the rotation this year.

Oh, of course I expect that.   That's why I picked 750 as my mid-case for IP from these 5.    Last year all of our starters pitched 846 innings (as starters) and our top 5 pitched 649 innings (including their relief innings).   In 2014, all our starters pitched 953 innings (as starters) and the top 5 pitched 842 innings (including their relief innings).

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Off the top of my head, those six guys in 2014 started 161, if I remember correctly.

That's pretty rare.  The median number of starters (min 5 starts) in 2017 was eight, and (min 1 start) was 11.  A typical MLB team used 11 starting pitchers. D'backs, Indians and Pirates each had just six pitchers make five or more starts.

The Mariners and Marlins each had 12 make 5+.  The Marlins themselves used Odrisamer Despiagne, Wei-Yin Chin, and Vance Worley.  I think this year they have Mark Hendrickson, Rick van den Hurk, and Chris Jakubauskas on the depth chart...

[Pheasants]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's always a tradeoff between getting your best pitchers the most innings, and keeping them effective and healthy.  And the balance in roster construction. 

Are your six starters more effective and healthy enough to offset the fact that you're taking starts from your best five and giving them to the 6th-best starter on purpose?  Can the workload be handled in the pen, given a 25-man roster?

For example, last year, would it have made any sense to take five starts from each of Gausman, Bundy, and the others and give that to whomever the 6th-best starter was (say, Asher or Wright or Ynoa?)

On the other hand would it work to go with 4 starters with an intended limit of 5 innings each and fill the extra innings with the larger bullpen?  Your 4 best get more starts, know they don't have to save something for later innings, and the bullpen has 8 people to handle 4 innings per day.

[Rene88]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Back of the napkin, I think their overall career norms probably average out close to 4.00, significantly better than your midcase. I think our defense will be improved and for whatever reason Castillo was really bad for our pitchers last year. I think you could be a little more optimistic. 4.15 for the mid case, 3.75 for the realistic best case. 

Also, I know it won't happen, but I would like to see Cortes in the rotation and Tillman in the bullpen. 

I think the impact Castillo had to our pitching staff has not been discussed enough on here. Joseph will help this staff all around IMO. I am not so sure about Sisco however. I would rather have had Wynn as a backup for now.

[Rene88]

2 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Which is why I am surprise more teams are not thinking about 6 man rotations.

Have there been discussions about expanding roster sizes at all on a perm basis (not doubleheaders only).

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

On the other hand would it work to go with 4 starters with an intended limit of 5 innings each and fill the extra innings with the larger bullpen?  Your 4 best get more starts, know they don't have to save something for later innings, and the bullpen has 8 people to handle 4 innings per day.

Possibly.  Or how about six starters, each going three innings every three days.  Never face a batter more than twice.  162 innings per starter.