Why do I feel crazy for actually believing the O's can win the East?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I do, in fact, expect the pitching to be much better this year.     I’m not that sanguine about the offense.   Despite all the inconsistencies during the season, from year to year the O’s offense hasn’t fluctuated a whole lot.    During Buck’s years, they’ve scored 708, 712, 745, 705, 713, 744 and 743 runs.    I have every reason to think they’ll be in that same range this year.      

How much has the league average scoring fluctuated during the same time period?

[Aglets]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How much has the league average scoring fluctuated during the same time period?

Exactly the point I was about to make.  Through most of Buck's tenure here, offense has been trending down.....we used to get no-hitters just about every month or more, it felt like for awhile.  That recently changed in 2017 (if not sooner?), allegedly because MLB started juicing the balls or whatever.

The average AL team scored 710 runs in 2015 (making us average), 731 runs in 2016, making us average-ish again, and then 763 runs last year, making us look a bit more below average.   So if we become an average or slightly above average offense again, that could add 30 or so runs to our total for 2018..........not sure how many wins that is though.

Or we could be an elite offense!  We were top 4 (tied) just five years ago when the AL average was 702 runs.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

Exactly the point I was about to make.  Through most of Buck's tenure here, offense has been trending down.....we used to get no-hitters just about every month or more, it felt like for awhile.  That recently changed in 2017 (if not sooner?), allegedly because MLB started juicing the balls or whatever.

The average AL team scored 710 runs in 2015 (making us average), 731 runs in 2016, making us average-ish again, and then 763 runs last year, making us look a bit more below average.   So if we become an average or slightly above average offense again, that could add 30 or so runs to our total for 2018..........not sure how many wins that is though.

Or we could be an elite offense!  We were top 4 (tied) just five years ago.

 

All star break 2015.

[Nite]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wouldn't call Cashner a very clear upgrade just yet.

I will say Cobb is an improvement.

If he pitches under a 6 era he's an improvement. That is a really really low bar to get over...

 

Anyone picking the O's to finish last based on their current roster while healthy isn't realizing how historically bad the starting pitching was, and how those guys aren't here anymore (Tillman has to have a short leash right?) The bar to be better than last year is on the ground. It's really hard for a decent MLB player to not trip over it. Yet they still won 75 games...

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Nite said:

If he pitches under a 6 era he's an improvement. That is a really really low bar to get over...

 

Anyone picking the O's to finish last based on their current roster while healthy isn't realizing how historically bad the starting pitching was, and how those guys aren't here anymore (Tillman has to have a short leash right?) The bar to be better than last year is on the ground. It's really hard for a decent MLB player to not trip over it. Yet they still won 75 games...

I don't see why.  Who is behind him?

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How much has the league average scoring fluctuated during the same time period?

Why do I always have to do all the work?   722, 721, 701, 677, 711, 732, 763.    So for us, that’s -14, -9, +44, +28, +2, +33, +12, -20 compared to league average.    The gap from best to worst is 58 runs compared to average.    That’s a drop in the bucket compared to the pitching fluctuation.   

[Number5]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The Orioles were 12-13 in games Ubaldo started last year.  I doubt that they'll be 22-3 in games that Cobb starts.

They were 15-17 in Wade Miley's starts. The Rays were 15-14 when Cobb started.

Baseball is 50% offense, 50% defense.  Defense is about 70/30 split between pitching and fielding.  Starters cover about 60% of innings, so they're (in rough terms) 60% of 70% of 50%.  It's a team game.

90% of the game is half-mental.

[Aglets]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see why.  Who is behind him?

Let me introduce you to Mike Wright and Nestor Cortes!

Whoever gets bumped when Cobb is activated would in theory be the 'next man up.'   Maybe they'll surprise us again and add RA Dickey.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Why do I always have to do all the work?   722, 721, 701, 677, 711, 732, 763.    So for us, that’s -14, -9, +44, +28, +2, +33, +12, -20 compared to league average.    The gap from best to worst is 58 runs compared to average.    That’s a drop in the bucket compared to the pitching fluctuation.   

You didn't.  It was a rhetorical question.  We all know offense has been up sharply the last few years.

But nice work anyway.

 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You didn't.  It was a rhetorical question.  We all know offense has been up sharply the last few years.

But nice work anyway.

 

But I don’t feel my point is materially changed, which is why I didn’t bother to to the extra work the first time.    Without context adjustment, our offense has fluctuated by 37 runs.   With context adjustment, it’s fluctuated by 64 runs.    That’s a bigger fluctuation, but not that big in the scheme of things, and I’d bet most other teams have fluctuated a lot more than that on offense.   (And no, I’m not actually going to try to figure that out!)

Meanwhile, here’s our pitching/defense compared to league average (runs allowed): +15, +9, +15, -78, -2, +10, +84.   A fluctuation of 162 from best to worst.    (The positive numbers means more runs allowed than average.)

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

But I don’t feel my point is materially changed, which is why I didn’t bother to to the extra work the first time.    Without context adjustment, our offense has fluctuated by 37 runs.   With context adjustment, it’s fluctuated by 64 runs.    That’s a bigger fluctuation, but not that big in the scheme of things, and I’d bet most other teams have fluctuated a lot more than that on offense.   (And no, I’m not actually going to try to figure that out!)

Meanwhile, here’s our pitching/defense compare to league average (runs allowed): +15, +9, +15, -78, -2, +10, +84.   A fluctuation of 162 from best to worst.    (The positive numbers means more runs allowed than average.)

The only thing that matters is what happens on the little hump out in the middle of the field.
 

[Rojo13]

6 hours ago, jamalshw said:

Not going to lie...I've got some investment in a long shot pick. Admittedly, not much, but...with those long of odds, it'll be a nice little bonus if the O's have a Cinderella season.

This thread has me pumped.

I just put some money down today online. Have you seen the odds? I couldn't believe it. I thought it was a misprint. Not sure what the odds are in Vegas but this is what I got today.

It was 150 to 1 for World Series title.
80 to 1 for AL title
50 to 1 for AL East title

I maxed out on all three. That sounds more impressive than it is as the max payout per bet was $5,000. I even put down some money on Schoop being MVP (60 to 1) and Manny being MVP (20 to 1).

If this team somehow has Jonathan Schoop lead them to a World Series title behind an MVP season, I"m going to be a very, very happy man.

[Nite]

2 hours ago, Rojo13 said:

This thread has me pumped.

I just put some money down today online. Have you seen the odds? I couldn't believe it. I thought it was a misprint. Not sure what the odds are in Vegas but this is what I got today.

It was 150 to 1 for World Series title.
80 to 1 for AL title
50 to 1 for AL East title

I maxed out on all three. That sounds more impressive than it is as the max payout per bet was $5,000. I even put down some money on Schoop being MVP (60 to 1) and Manny being MVP (20 to 1).

If this team somehow has Jonathan Schoop lead them to a World Series title behind an MVP season, I"m going to be a very, very happy man.

300 down for 15000 at best. Even 5k if my prediction is right... So tempting! 

[DrungoHazewood]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

I do, in fact, expect the pitching to be much better this year.     I’m not that sanguine about the offense.   Despite all the inconsistencies during the season, from year to year the O’s offense hasn’t fluctuated a whole lot.    During Buck’s years, they’ve scored 708, 712, 745, 705, 713, 744 and 743 runs.    I have every reason to think they’ll be in that same range this year.      

I agree with the take on the offense, although there is some downside.  Jones isn't young.  Joseph and the other catcher(s) won't hit like Castillo.  Trumbo and Davis have worrisome trends.  Rasmus is not consistently good.  Schoop hit a lot better last year than ever before.  There's no guaranteed OBP source.

But my worry is that you just can't count on 150 runs in improvement from the pitching.   A lot of things have to go pretty right for that to happen. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I agree with the take on the offense, although there is some downside.  Jones isn't young.  Joseph and the other catcher(s) won't hit like Castillo.  Trumbo and Davis have worrisome trends.  Rasmus is not consistently good.  Schoop hit a lot better last year than ever before.  There's no guaranteed OBP source.

But my worry is that you just can't count on 150 runs in improvement from the pitching.   A lot of things have to go pretty right for that to happen. 

150 runs would be very aggressive, I agree.