What are the odds that the O’s climb back to .500 at any point this year?

[Frobby]

So, this is a barometer of just how pessimistic everyone is.   Forget contending, will we ever reach .500 at any point this year?    Note I don’t mean finishing .500 or better, just getting there at any point this year.

[NCRaven]

I think the odds are small and getting smaller.  First, 4-15 is a pretty serious hole.  Second, I've seen little to make me think we'll be significantly better.  There may be small improvements by some players.  But, Chris Davis will still be on this team and getting lots of at bats.  We'll still have a 1B/DH playing left field almost everyday.  We'll still have an aging and declining CF'er (yes, I know he had three doubles yesterday).  We'll still have a Rule 5 pick in RF and in the bullpen.  Just not seeing a big improvement at this point. 

What could prove me wrong.  Well, Cobb should get better and Tillman will almost certainly be released at some point.  Givens has to get better, right?  Britton will be back in early June, most likely - but will he have any leads to hold for saves?

July 31 should be interesting.

[maybenxtyr]

I don't see it right now. Something happened behind the scenes that has changed the swagger or mojo of the team. We may never know what it is, but this team looks like a group of guys just showing up.

All that said, I hope I'm wrong and they go on a winning streak and make me look foolish.

[clapdiddy]

Up to this point, it's pretty much been a total implosion.  It has to get a little better.

I think we were a slightly better than .500 team coming into the season.   I think we'll see them play at that level the rest of the season.  That will certainly not be enough to get to the .500 mark.

[SteveA]

I went with 10-29%, and probably in the low range of that.  

Reasons for hope that we could:

1) After Cleveland, we have 9 of 18 games vs TB & KC who as bad or worse than we are..

2) 18 of our next 24 games are at home and the past few years we have been significantly better at home than on the road

3) I do expect Cobb to improve.

4) We have more guys significantly underacheiving any realistic projection than overachieving, so regression to the mean should make us hit better.

Good enough to get from 11 under back to .500?

Probably  not... which is why I think 12 or 13%.

[Can_of_corn]

I'd say under 5%, maybe 4%.

[Camden_yardbird]

If they can get even 1 or 2 good starts out of their 5th pitcher and the offense can rebound (and they should) they could do it.

[amdcpus]

<1%. This is a 100+ loss team.

[blid]

The giant gap in the 5th spot of the rotation is a problem, but I like the rest of the staff and think Cobb should start putting things together after a few more starts.  Still, until he gets going that's 2 out of 5 games that are gonna be long shots before the opening pitch is even thrown, so the hole is just going to get deeper.  And at a certain point, the team will probably become sellers.  If we end up trading Manny, this woeful looking offense is going to be even worse. 

I'm actually not even all that pessimistic about this team, but I think it'll be a little while before they can get any sort of winning streak going, and I also think the door is gonna shut before the season is over, so the chances of getting back to .500 might be slim.

[atomic]

About the same as the Red Sox being under .500 this season. Not good. 

[webbrick2010]

We've been under .500 since the third week of May last year

Why would anyone think we can play 9 games over .500 for any stretch?

0% this team sees .500 in 2018

[TouchemAll]

OH heck what the he!! I don't follow anybody else really so I'll go 30-49%

AND no way in he!! do I put any money on that.

 

 

 

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

I don't see it right now. Something happened behind the scenes that has changed the swagger or mojo of the team. We may never know what it is, but this team looks like a group of guys just showing up.

All that said, I hope I'm wrong and they go on a winning streak and make me look foolish.

I don't think you will be wrong though. 

[Mondo Trasho]

The 2002 team was 63-63 in late August, and I think this team is probably a little better than that team was. So I'd say they've got a legitimate chance at being .500 this year. A good chance? No, but a chance.

[oriole]

I'm going to guess they play better going forward but not great and we see guys like Machado, Jones, Britton and Brach traded. Then once the pressure is off to pretend to be a contender and we have guys like Hayes, Mullins, Harvey up they play spoiler and get hot to close the season. That's my guess.