Rate Our Tradeable Assets

[Morgan423]

56 minutes ago, George Zuverink said:

How much longer is Gausman under control? He was drafted the year after Bundy, wasn't he?We've been trying so long to get five reliable starters on the roster, even making two "major league" ready starters  the ante for a Machado trade. It would be tough to give one up when we seem to a year away from finally having five.

Depends on what your target is with this mini-rebuild. If you think you can turn it around quickly and jump back into things strong in 19 or 20, then you don't trade the strong pieces from your rotation. If you are playing the full rebuild long game, then you can trade these guys, since several of their control years will be consumed on bad teams.

Either move might be correct, it just depends on our timetable.

[ChuckS]

I'm not going to include rookie to third year players with little to no chance to be traded like Bundy, Sisco, and Mancini.  I think two and a half seasons of sub 3.50 ERA Gausman (current version) is probably worth more than a half season of Manny.  

• 1. Gausman
• 2. Machado
• 3.  Schoop
• 4.  Givens
• 5.  Britton
• 6.  Jones
• 7.  Cashner
• 8.  O'Day
• 9.  Brach

Davis, Trumbo, Cobb, and others all have negative value given their contracts so they are not assets.  I'm assuming Adam Jones production picks up some over the next three months.  Right now he is arguably not an asset either.  I'm also assuming Britton comes back looking like himself. But if he looks bad he could have no more value than Brach, who is not even an asset at this point unless he turns things around. 

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd love a B level prospect for him.

I don't think his performance is sustainable, at least not over multiple seasons.  You hold onto him and in 2019 or 2020 you have Brach 2.0.

I am talking about trading or releasing a dozen players on the 40 man roster.   I would have to see what comes back in the trades before addressing Bleier.    

[theocean]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No one ever wants to trade the guys when they are going good.    Most tradeable assets that make the most sense to trade are where we'll actually get something back.  I believe in trading high which is why trading Bundy is not a good idea now.   His value is good but it has the potential to skyrocket within the next year.   Gausman is on the uptick right now and he's proven he's durable.   I think Gausman is turning himself into our best trade chip.

1. Kevin Gausman

2. Manny Machado

3. Jon Schoop

4. Mychal Givens

5. Adam Jones

 

Those are our best trade chips.   Of course, I would love to trade O'Day, Trumbo, Davis, etc.    Davis is untradeable.   Trumbo would have to turn into 2016 Trumbo pretty quickly to make himself tradeable.     

I don't think Bleier has much trade value but I would certainly look into turning him into a starter to see if he can be a placeholder for the O's or maybe increase his trade value.  He has started before in the minors.

 

Now, the other side of the coin has been pointed out by Wildcard which is that the rotation could be pretty decent over the next two years if we just hold onto Gausman, Bundy, etc.    However, it's questionable whether extending either of these guys is the best decision and what good is having them for the next two years and then finding ourselves in the same situation where we looking at losing players for nothing or 50 cents on the dollar?

 

I agree with everything you said - except I'd prefer the O's to hang onto Gausman. I think the rotation could be solid over the next few years with Bundy, Gausman, Cobb, Harvey - which would help speed up a rebuild. A lot of the O's prospects now are close to being ready, so it's not like the O's need to kick the can down the road that far.

That being said, if they get a nice offer - they should take it for anybody.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No one ever wants to trade the guys when they are going good.    Most tradeable assets that make the most sense to trade are where we'll actually get something back.  I believe in trading high which is why trading Bundy is not a good idea now.   His value is good but it has the potential to skyrocket within the next year.   Gausman is on the uptick right now and he's proven he's durable.   I think Gausman is turning himself into our best trade chip.

1. Kevin Gausman

2. Manny Machado

3. Jon Schoop

4. Mychal Givens

5. Adam Jones

 

Those are our best trade chips.   Of course, I would love to trade O'Day, Trumbo, Davis, etc.    Davis is untradeable.   Trumbo would have to turn into 2016 Trumbo pretty quickly to make himself tradeable.     

I don't think Bleier has much trade value but I would certainly look into turning him into a starter to see if he can be a placeholder for the O's or maybe increase his trade value.  He has started before in the minors.

 

Now, the other side of the coin has been pointed out by Wildcard which is that the rotation could be pretty decent over the next two years if we just hold onto Gausman, Bundy, etc.    However, it's questionable whether extending either of these guys is the best decision and what good is having them for the next two years and then finding ourselves in the same situation where we looking at losing players for nothing or 50 cents on the dollar?

 

A lot depends on whether Buck wants to stay for a short rebuild.   I see Duquette as gone in October.    If Buck stays he runs much of the rebuild with help from Brady and someone they hire to handle the GM transactions like Ned Rice. 

I see Buck trading aging players for youth and then adding players from free agency.   He probably has about 60m in salary to work with this off season.  I think he finds range at SS and  2B and moves Schoop to 3B while extending him.  He restocks the pen and add a strong young outfielder with major league experience.   Catching is fine with Sisco, Susac and Wynns.  He rebuilds around his  starters except for Tillman.

He intends to contend in 2019.

If Buck does not want to stay its a much longer rebuild.

 

 

[theocean]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

What prospects are ready?    And even if they are ready, what do you expect from them?      We have Beckham and Schoop for the next two years.   There is a huge hole at 3B and an even bigger hole at 1B that is already filled.    We have outfield prospects but none are guaranteed to be all-star caliber or even solid everyday regulars.   We also have a huge hole at catcher unless you are a believer in Sisco and I am becoming very, very skeptical of Sisco.    Sisco now has 26 strikeouts in 59 AB's.   That is alarming!!!!!

I'm talking about Sisco, Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Harvey. I personally don't think they are that great of prospects, but they definitely probably are all playing in Baltimore by the end of the year. It's not like they are all 18-19 year old prospects who are going to be in the minors for a while.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

A lot depends on whether Buck wants to stay for a short rebuild.   I see Duquette as gone in October.    If Buck stays he runs much of the rebuild with help from Brady and someone they hire to handle the GM transactions like Ned Rice. 

I see Buck trading aging players for youth and then adding players from free agency.   He probably has about 60m in salary to work with this off season.  I think he finds range at SS and  2B and moves Schoop to 3B while extending him.  He restocks the pen and add a strong young outfielder with major league experience.   Catching is fine with Sisco, Susac and Wynns.  He rebuilds around his  starters except for Tillman.

He intends to contend in 2019.

If Buck does not want to stay its a much longer rebuild.

 

 

I don't see that at all.  I see Buck as being in favor of retaining older players (O'Day, Hardy, Tillman, Davis) in his time with the O's.  I see him playing Joseph over Sisco a lot more than I would like. 

[VaBird1]

I would try to trade anyone who isn’t here next year for the best you can get.  Next year they need a CF, a 3B, a RF, a SP and maybe some bullpen guys.  If the return plus our upper level guys don’t address those holes, I would shop guys like Schoop that have another year left.  They look like they could win 85 or so games next year will some thoughtful additions since we have some outfielders coming and four nice rotation pieces.  I would prefer to try and win next year without giving up any of the guys in the minors.  They need people to buy tickets and not even I want to watch a team that can’t win 70 games in the heat of August.

[eddie83]

It comes down really to what ownership is willing to do.  

Instead of trading Gausman and Bundy now about trying to extend them. 

I personally don’t see the Orioles going the Astros route.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

I would try to trade anyone who isn’t here next year for the best you can get.  Next year they need a CF, a 3B, a RF, a SP and maybe some bullpen guys.  If the return plus our upper level guys don’t address those holes, I would shop guys like Schoop that have another year left.  They look like they could win 85 or so games next year will some thoughtful additions since we have some outfielders coming and four nice rotation pieces.  I would prefer to try and win next year without giving up any of the guys in the minors.  They need people to buy tickets and not even I want to watch a team that can’t win 70 games in the heat of August.

Mullins, Hays, and Stewart can be the starting outfield next year.  I'm fine with that.

Of course I don't see this team winning 85 games next year.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, eddie83 said:

It comes down really to what ownership is willing to do.  

Instead of trading Gausman and Bundy now about trying to extend them. 

I personally don’t see the Orioles going the Astros route.  

I see the owner doing what he did last time.  Have the GM bring in over the hill bandaids in an attempt to have the team be somewhat competitive.

[eddie83]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Mullins, Hays, and Stewart can be the starting outfield next year.  I'm fine with that.

Of course I don't see this team winning 85 games next year.

I would prefer 2 of the 3 so we can let one start in AAA. That way if one is really struggling we have some more depth.  

[eddie83]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I see the owner doing what he did last time.  Have the GM bring in over the hill bandaids in an attempt to have the team be somewhat competitive.

I really have no issue with short term signings in the infield to fill some holes. Not like they would be blocking anyone. 

They better execute the Manny trade. I would at least like an everyday infielder out if it. A better ran offseason with some legitimate depth this does not have to be so ugly next year. In the blink of an eye you can improve the defense in 4/5 places.  

[Dark Helmet]

If Gausman has another 3 or 4 starts in a row of what he's done over his last 6, he may be the guy that can net us a big haul. Even more than Manny. Gausman is cheap and under control for more than half a season. 

And teams tend to overpay more for SP.

[xmichaelx]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Bleier this season and probably  not in the off season.  He is effective and cheap.  He is probably worth more the O's than what they

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd love a B level prospect for him.

I don't think his performance is sustainable, at least not over multiple seasons.  You hold onto him and in 2019 or 2020 you have Brach 2.0.

would get in return.  Age 31 does not matter for a reliever that can probably pitch effectively for 4 more years.

Why do you assume he will be Brach 2.0?