Fangraphs: O’s have zero of the top 131 prospects in baseball.

[bpilktree67]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

What this list tells me is...the Cubs are not a realistic landing spot for Machado. They don't have the prospects to get a deal done. 

 

Most of the good teams don't have top talent in the minors like has been the case in the past.  The last few years teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros and Cubs not only were playing in the playoffs but also had very good and deep systems.   Now those same top teams have traded away a lot of their young talent the last two years or so.  The Braves are really the only top team this year with a deep farm compared to past years.   

[wildbillhiccup]

46 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Most of the good teams don't have top talent in the minors like has been the case in the past.  The last few years teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros and Cubs not only were playing in the playoffs but also had very good and deep systems.   Now those same top teams have traded away a lot of their young talent the last two years or so.  The Braves are really the only top team this year with a deep farm compared to past years.   

Not a true statement. They other teams linked to Machado might not have as MANY top 100 prospects as the Braves, but they all have some. The Cubs have...nothing. 

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I am not convinced.  Player can be highly rated no matter whether they go  to college or not.

High school  - Harper, Betts, Machado, Trout

College:  Judge, JD Martinez, Kris Bryant

That’s not what we said and you know it. Age matters, not whether or not you went to college b

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

That’s not what we said and you know it. Age matters, not whether or not you went to college b

By definition a college player is older getting to the majors in most cases. It takes a  high school player being injured to be at the same age as a college player.  And most of the time when a high school player loses years to injury he falls in the rankings.

[Ohfan67]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

By definition a college player is older getting to the majors in most cases. It takes a  high school player being injured to be at the same age as a college player.  And most of the time when a high school player loses years to injury he falls in the rankings.

The performance of minor league players at a given level at a given age is a much, much, much better predictor of future success than most other variables. You don't have to like it, but that's a strongly supported statistical correlation. 

[Luke-OH]

 

[wildcard]

38 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

The performance of minor league players at a given level at a given age is a much, much, much better predictor of future success than most other variables. You don't have to like it, but that's a strongly supported statistical correlation. 

Sorry but you make no sense ignoring whether the player comes from college or high school.  A high school player is signed at 17-18 years old.   He take 3- 5 years for most to develop.   That makes him 20-23 year old when he makes the majors on average.   A college player is 21-22 year old when signed and it take 2-4 year for him to reach the majors on average.   So he is 23-26 year old when he reached the majors.   So if you are measuring players that 22 year old  the high school player  may be close the majors or in the majors.  A college player has just been signed or one year into professional baseball.   

Any decent evaluation based on age takes in account whether its a high school or college player.  Judge was just signed at 22.  Manny was in the majors for three years at 22.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sorry but you make no sense ignoring whether the player comes from college or high school.  A high school player is signed at 17-18 years old.   He take 3- 5 years for most to develop.   That makes him 20-23 year old when he makes the majors on average.   A college player is 21-22 year old when signed and it take 2-4 year for him to reach the majors on average.   So he is 23-26 year old when he reached the majors.   So if you are measuring players that 22 year old  the high school player  may be close the majors or in the majors.  A college player has just been signed or one year into professional baseball.   

Any decent evaluation based on age takes in account whether its a high school or college player.  Judge was just signed at 22.  Manny was in the majors for three years at 22.

So you think three years of college development = one year of minor league development?

Judge and Manny are a bad comparison.  How about you look at Posey and Wieters, college players who were, like Manny, top five picks?  They both only spent one full season in the minors.

[Ohfan67]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sorry but you make no sense ignoring whether the player comes from college or high school.  A high school player is signed at 17-18 years old.   He take 3- 5 years for most to develop.   That makes him 20-23 year old when he makes the majors on average.   A college player is 21-22 year old when signed and it take 2-4 year for him to reach the majors on average.   So he is 23-26 year old when he reached the majors.   So if you are measuring players that 22 year old  the high school player  may be close the majors or in the majors.  A college player has just been signed or one year into professional baseball.   

Any decent evaluation based on age takes in account whether its a high school or college player.  Judge was just signed at 22.  Manny was in the majors for three years at 22.

As you said earlier, apples and oranges. We are talking past each other, really talking about different things. It's a waste of electrons. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

As you said earlier, apples and oranges. We are talking past each other, really talking about different things. It's a waste of electrons. 

Quit being negative.

[Bradysburns]

These lists are an okay (but completely subjective) way to look at our situation. But I would put almost ZERO trust in their accuracy. I think they're ALWAYS biased... always biased. If a guy plays in the Yankees system, the baseball community (rightly) trusts the Yankees organization to draft and develop players at a very high level. So their guys come in with a "halo" effect. Our guys come in with the halo wrapped around their ankles, so to speak. 

That said, give me a break. Injuries aside, you're telling me that every single team in the majors has 4-5 players on the farm who are ALL better than every single Orioles prospect. That doesn't pass the stank test, IMO. 

[Bradysburns]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Quit being negative.

This whole back-and-forth has been a little too charged for my tastes. 

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So you think three years of college development = one year of minor league development?

Judge and Manny are a bad comparison.  How about you look at Posey and Wieters, college players who were, like Manny, top five picks?  They both only spent one full season in the minors.

Manny was signed 8/16/2010 at 18. He was call to the majors 8/9 2012 at 20..   That is so close to two year it no worth discussing.

Posey  made the majors at 22 and Wieters made the majors at 23 were exceptional college players.

You saying that Judge, a college player  and Manny, a high school signee are a bad comparison makes my point.  Age is not always the major fact.  Being a college or high school player has to be figured in the analysis.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Manny was signed 8/16/2010 at 18. He was call to the majors 8/9 2012 at 20..   That is so close to two year it no worth discussing.

Posey  made the majors at 22 and Wieters made the majors at 23 were exceptional college players.

You saying that Judge, a college player  and Manny, a high school signee are a bad comparison makes my point.  Age is not always the major fact.  Being a college or high school player has to be figured in the analysis.

No, I am saying Machado, a top 5 pick, is a bad comparison to Judge,  who was drafted 32nd.

Also, I liked how you mentioned Machado's age when he signed and not when he was drafted.  Slick, if predictable.

The issue I had with your earlier post is that you were make the assertion that one year in the minor leagues was the equivalent, developmentally of two, maybe three years of college.

What about someone like Hall, who despite being a first round pick, is going to be playing short season ball this year?  He ain't going to be making the majors at 20.

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, Bradysburns said:

That said, give me a break. Injuries aside, you're telling me that every single team in the majors has 4-5 players on the farm who are ALL better than every single Orioles prospect. That doesn't pass the stank test, IMO. 

We are about the weakest participants internationally in all of mlb and have forfeited picks to sign Jimenez and Gallardo and traded picks to shed BMat and Ryan - that's the equivalent of four top 50 picks not in our system.  Some teams, like the Braves, have about 10 guys better than pretty much anyone in our system.