It's Official

[Tx Oriole]

7 minutes ago, atomic said:

I think they  could manage to build a 60 win team keeping the pitching and replacing the entire position team with guys found from waivers, in the minors and guys who could be traded for next to nothing.  

When or if Manny is traded they be able to get some good prospects. I hope so anyway.

 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, atomic said:

It is actually the defense that is the single most reason the team has been so bad. They have -6.8 Defensive WAR and 4.2 offensive WAR.  Pitching is 7.2 WAR.   Everyone giving Manny a pass.  I don't really understand it.  

First of all, I don’t want to undersell the defense being bad.    It’s very poor.   

However, when I compare this year’s team to last year’s, the glaring stat is that we’re scoring way fewer runs.   Through 85 games, we’ve scored 63 fewer runs, and allowed 24 fewer.   So the pitching/defense combo has actually been a bit better than last year, but the offense is way worse.   That’s why I say offense is the biggest factor.    

The defense is worse than last year too.   Fangraphs had us at -30 for all last year, but -35 already this year.    So, call it 20 runs worse so far.    Very significant, but still a lot less than 63 runs worse for the offense.

The interesting thing here is that our pitching staff might actually look half-decent if the defense behind it was average.    

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, atomic said:

It is actually the defense that is the single most reason the team has been so bad. They have -6.8 Defensive WAR and 4.2 offensive WAR.  Pitching is 7.2 WAR.   Everyone giving Manny a pass.  I don't really understand it.  

Who is giving Manny a pass?  Are you talking about the announcers?  Folks here sure aren't.

[foxfield]

This illustrates the depths and magnitude of the problem and is the reason why I was pushing back so hard on Atomic about the his idea that the biggest problem is about Manny being at SS.  It's not the problem even if it hasn't been a good deal.

The fact that the pitching is scoring better metrically misses the point.  It was horrendous last year and while better this year it is still pretty bad statistically.  The defense is worse and as Frobby points out the offense is way worse.  That really doesn't even address that the best area for the Orioles for years...the bull pen...is also significantly worse.

In the movie Apollo 13 there is a scene where everyone is bitching at each other about what is wrong.  Finally Gene Granz says, what do we have on the ship that is good.

That my friends is where we are and where we should focus.  It's hard, but for me it starts with trying to get someone to run the franchise and in the meantime hope that those in charge now will make some good deals to salvage some value out of declining assets.  It won't fix everything, and we aren't winning a world series with this group, but maybe even if we miss the moon, we can get the guys back home and start again...

[atomic]

13 minutes ago, foxfield said:

This illustrates the depths and magnitude of the problem and is the reason why I was pushing back so hard on Atomic about the his idea that the biggest problem is about Manny being at SS.  It's not the problem even if it hasn't been a good deal.

The fact that the pitching is scoring better metrically misses the point.  It was horrendous last year and while better this year it is still pretty bad statistically.  The defense is worse and as Frobby points out the offense is way worse.  That really doesn't even address that the best area for the Orioles for years...the bull pen...is also significantly worse.

 In the movie Apollo 13 there is a scene where everyone is bitching at each other about what is wrong.  Finally Gene Granz says, what do we have on the ship that is good.

That my friends is where we are and where we should focus.  It's hard, but for me it starts with trying to get someone to run the franchise and in the meantime hope that those in charge now will make some good deals to salvage some value out of declining assets.  It won't fix everything, and we aren't winning a world series with this group, but maybe even if we miss the moon, we can get the guys back home and start again...

We were a last place team last season.  Last season we had negative 2.4 WAR for the whole season.  This year it is already -6.8.  So the defense in half a season has lost 4 more games than it did all of last year.  The defense is terrible.  Manny as the Shortstop is the centerpiece of the bad defense. 

The pitching is the best part of the team. If the defense and hitting were as good as the pitching we would have a .500 team.  

[atomic]

Also I think the reason you are pushing so hard back on Manny has nothing to do with his performance on the field.  You are prejudging him not to be the problem and you aren't looking at anything realistically. 

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

Even if every single word of this were true....and it is not.  My questions to you would be...

If the Orioles had simply kept Manny at 3b, what do think their current record would be?

At what point in the current season did we miss the chance to move Manny back to 3B and restore Chris Tillman's ability to pitch, and Chris Davis' ability to hit?

 

37 minutes ago, atomic said:

Also I think the reason you are pushing so hard back on Manny has nothing to do with his performance on the field.  You are prejudging him not to be the problem and you aren't looking at anything realistically. 

Im being unrealistic?  Again, Manny has not been a good SS, and no one here is arguing that.  But if saying Manny is our best player even if he has been poor at SS....is unrealistic and prejudicial....

 

Please answer the questions I asked you previously (in bold above).

Also while we are talking about being realistic.  If the Orioles hitting and defense were as good as the pitching, the team would be at .500?  Are you serious?

By what metric would you say the team is even average in pitching?  

Courtesy of ESPN, They rank:

27/30 for team ERA

26/30 for team Quality Starts

27/30 for Earned Runs

25/30 for Total Runs

25/30 for Walks

25/30 for SO

30/30 for Batting Avg Against

 

Please note that the Orioles have pitched better this year than last as you noted.  But in addition to being much much much worse hitting, they have also moved Manny to SS from 3B and wrecked the team as you say.  

 

But just to be sure, if the Orioles were hitting and playing defense as well as they are pitching, we would still suck.  There really is no area of the game...on the field or off that we are better than a majority of teams in MLB.  Unless you want to count OPACY.  Which is a classic.

But I am unrealistic because I can't buy that if only Manny stayed at 3d base we would have been fine.

Well, ok.  I am unrealistic.  You have convinced me.  Let's just cut him.  What good is a C level prospect when we can send a valuable message to all of MLB that we are the Baltimore Orioles and we mean business.

Anyway, thanks Brady or John or whoever.  For setting me straight.  But please...just humor me one last time.  Please answer those two questions in bold at the top.

Peace

 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

We were a last place team last season.  Last season we had negative 2.4 WAR for the whole season.  This year it is already -6.8.  So the defense in half a season has lost 4 more games than it did all of last year.  The defense is terrible.  Manny as the Shortstop is the centerpiece of the bad defense.

We are on pace to win 46 games this year, 29 fewer than last season.  So if the defense is 8-9 games worse than last year, that means the other 20 extra losses are coming from somewhere else. That somewhere else is the offense.    

Manny’s play at SS is a cause of the defensive decline, but not the only one by any stretch.   Since you like to use dWAR, here is 2017 and projected 2018 for some key players:

Mancini -1.2/-4.0

Jones -0.8/-3.2

Schoop +0.7/-0.4

Our outfield defense has been atrocious and that’s certainly not Manny’s doing.

 

[atomic]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We are on pace to win 46 games this year, 29 fewer than last season.  So if the defense is 8-9 games worse than last year, that means the other 20 extra losses are coming from somewhere else. That somewhere else is the offense.    

 Manny’s play at SS is a cause of the defensive decline, but not the only one by any stretch.   Since you like to use dWAR, here is 2017 and projected 2018 for some key players:

 Mancini -1.2/-4.0

Jones -0.8/-3.2

Schoop +0.7/-0.4

Our outfield defense has been atrocious and that’s certainly not Manny’s doing.

  

I started a thread long ago that Mancini was not an outfielder and should be removed as quickly as possible.  Right now I am for demoting Mancini.  So no argument there.  

[Going Underground]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We are on pace to win 46 games this year, 29 fewer than last season.  So if the defense is 8-9 games worse than last year, that means the other 20 extra losses are coming from somewhere else. That somewhere else is the offense.    

Manny’s play at SS is a cause of the defensive decline, but not the only one by any stretch.   Since you like to use dWAR, here is 2017 and projected 2018 for some key players:

Mancini -1.2/-4.0

Jones -0.8/-3.2

Schoop +0.7/-0.4

Our outfield defense has been atrocious and that’s certainly not Manny’s doing.

 

And who is at fault for the Oriole defense? Especially outfield. From end of last season:. Talk is cheap.. Same as DD saying we need better.. OBP guys. So they push Colby Rasmus as an ,OBP guy. His career ,OBP is .310. That is not a high ,OBP guy. But I guess which I did here Bordick and Hunter pushing this narrative that it must be true.

And as the season wore down, manager Buck Showalter made it clear that the defense — in some cases individually, but mostly as a whole — wasn't up to the level that had helped the Orioles succeed in recent years.

"Obviously, we've got to improve on the starting pitching," Showalter said last month. "That falls under Captain Obvious, and I think we've taken a step back defensively, really, the last year or two at some places. I think we need to get that back in order — especially with a pitching staff that didn't strike out that many people. That's not going to change overnight. That's something we were really good at, and I thought it kept us from playing a home game in the playoffs last year.

"I think we've dropped our guard a bit defensively. I really do. We try to make a point of emphasis, and I think we've kind of lowered our standards in a couple of areas."

 

As a team, the Orioles tied for 20th in baseball with -17 defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs. While that's better than last year's -25, the majority of the Orioles’ 2016 problems came in an outfield that dragged the whole operation down with a league-worst -51 DRS. This year, the outfield was responsible for -15 DRS, meaning everywhere else fell off rather significantly.

In the infield, first baseman Chris Davis went from eight DRS in 2016 to -5 in 2017. Second baseman Jonathan Schoop improved slightly from -1 to two DRS this year. But third baseman Manny Machado, who contributed 16 DRS last year between third base and shortstop, was down to six this season.

 

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-defense-20171006-story.html

 

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

I started a thread long ago that Mancini was not an outfielder and should be removed as quickly as possible.  Right now I am for demoting Mancini.  So no argument there.  

His knee may not have been the cause of his offensive issues but his range got worse the moment he hurt his knee. That said he is a 1B.