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bpilktree67

By bpilktree67
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baltfan Hangout Grand Counsel

baltfan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, FlipTheBird said:

Unfair standards. If a draft has to have a Harper or Strasburg type at the top to be a decent year, the problem is on the scale, not the players.

Law is also throwing crap at the wall same as any other evalauator, given that we're dealing with 17-21 year old kids.

How is it an unfair standard?  People knew going into the draft and even a year before that the drafts with Harper and Stasburg were special.  He is saying of the people he has seen he doesn't see anyone at that level of prospect and, worse, he doesn't even see the normal level of prospect you would see for a #1 overall.  Given that he does these evaluations every year, I don't know how you can fault the reasoning.

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jcarm Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

jcarm

Posted
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27 minutes ago, baltfan said:

How is it an unfair standard?  People knew going into the draft and even a year before that the drafts with Harper and Stasburg were special.  He is saying of the people he has seen he doesn't see anyone at that level of prospect and, worse, he doesn't even see the normal level of prospect you would see for a #1 overall.  Given that he does these evaluations every year, I don't know how you can fault the reasoning.

I would be happy with someone like Buster Posey (#5 pick in same year Beckham was #1).

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baltfan Hangout Grand Counsel

baltfan

Posted
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20 minutes ago, jcarm said:

I would be happy with someone like Buster Posey (#5 pick in same year Beckham was #1).

There is almost always going to be someone from a draft that ends up excellent.  And, to be fair, many thought Posey was the best player in that draft.  However, I think Law's comment is still depressing.  Would be much better for there to be a clear #1 or a couple that were so close that a mistake is unlikely to be made.  

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Greg Pappas Hangout Grand Counsel

Greg Pappas

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Regarding what Keith Law (or anyone else for that matter) thinks at this stage about the overall #1 pick : It's just an opinion based on what they feel NOW. Some are very high on Bobby Witt, Jr, or Adley Rutschman, or X, or Y, or Z... but all that really matters is how they/we feel about the top of the draft as we approach the draft itself.  Opinions change as players change. Some will improve greatly, while others may have an off year. Some relatively unknown may shoot all the way to the top of the board.

I'm a big fan of the draft, and follow it quite closely every year, and I try not to get too caught up in what people think... until right around late May/early June. As long as we're picking 1st or 2nd, I'll be very excited if there are two very highly-rated youngsters for us to choose from.  Just my opinion, but I figure that'll be the case. ?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
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2 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

Unfair standards. If a draft has to have a Harper or Strasburg type at the top to be a decent year, the problem is on the scale, not the players.

Law is also throwing crap at the wall same as any other evalauator, given that we're dealing with 17-21 year old kids.

I guess he doesn’t think Bobby Witt Jr. is the messiah.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

Unfair standards. If a draft has to have a Harper or Strasburg type at the top to be a decent year, the problem is on the scale, not the players.

Law is also throwing crap at the wall same as any other evalauator, given that we're dealing with 17-21 year old kids.

That’s not the standard the questioner used.    He said having a Harper was an “up year,” and implied that that was the top of the scale, not a “decent” year.    

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Frobby said:

That’s not the standard the questioner used.    He said having a Harper was an “up year,” and implied that that was the top of the scale, not a “decent” year.    

He also went on to call it a "very down year." Hence my gripe. Not arguing the pool is laden with studs or anything, just noting that it's silly to rate a draft based entirely on whether or not there's one Uber-talented guy.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
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32 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

He also went on to call it a "very down year." Hence my gripe. Not arguing the pool is laden with studs or anything, just noting that it's silly to rate a draft based entirely on whether or not there's one Uber-talented guy.

Well, I think the question was really about the very top of the draft, not the draft as a whole.   You are obviously correct that whatever the situation appears to be now could look very different next June.   But some years there’s a clear top guy or top two or three, some years there’s not.    That’s all I understood the question was about.   

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baltfan Hangout Grand Counsel

baltfan

Posted
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Well, I think the question was really about the very top of the draft, not the draft as a whole.   You are obviously correct that whatever the situation appears to be now could look very different next June.   But some years there’s a clear top guy or top two or three, some years there’s not.    That’s all I understood the question was about.   

This is correct.  Question wasn’t about the draft as a whole but the #1 overall pick. And I think it is fair to say in years where there is a Harper type it is well known even this far from the draft.  Law obviously doesn’t see anyone with close to that pedigree given his answer.  Hopefully he is wrong.  

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baltfan Hangout Grand Counsel

baltfan

Posted
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5 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Regarding what Keith Law (or anyone else for that matter) thinks at this stage about the overall #1 pick : It's just an opinion based on what they feel NOW. Some are very high on Bobby Witt, Jr, or Adley Rutschman, or X, or Y, or Z... but all that really matters is how they/we feel about the top of the draft as we approach the draft itself.  Opinions change as players change. Some will improve greatly, while others may have an off year. Some relatively unknown may shoot all the way to the top of the board.

I'm a big fan of the draft, and follow it quite closely every year, and I try not to get too caught up in what people think... until right around late May/early June. As long as we're picking 1st or 2nd, I'll be very excited if there are two very highly-rated youngsters for us to choose from.  Just my opinion, but I figure that'll be the case. ?

If you follow don’t you agree that if there is an Uber talent that usually it is well known by this time?  For example, Strasburg and Harper were salivated over long before the draft.  Doesn’t mean there isn’t someone who is great in the coming draft.  Surely, there is.   Just means it is hard to determine who that is , so doesn’t bode as well for the Orioles. 

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Greg Pappas Hangout Grand Counsel

Greg Pappas

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, baltfan said:

If you follow don’t you agree that if there is an Uber talent that usually it is well known by this time?  For example, Strasburg and Harper were salivated over long before the draft.  Doesn’t mean there isn’t someone who is great in the coming draft.  Surely, there is.   Just means it is hard to determine who that is , so doesn’t bode as well for the Orioles. 

I agree. There are probably scouts who are highly enamored with guys like Witt, Jr. and Rutschman, however, at this juncture there isn't a consensus as there was with guys like Strasburg, Griffey, Jr., Delmon Young, ARod, and Harper.  Hopefully that consensus begins to form by May next year.  Either way, the odds are that a very, very good talent will be available at 1 or 2.... though we'll all be pulling for uber. ? 

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sevastras All-Star

sevastras

Posted
Posted

Keith Law is a d bag and I would not have him as my draft talent evaluator. I am not in professional sports and trust my evaluations more than I trust his. That said. I don’t think at this point there is a Harper, but I don’t think it is a weak draft. Their is some serious upside in this draft and some depth. CJ Abram I think will end up the top of this draft come draft time.  Don’t know yet if we are looking at a Machado level but maybe a kid that is all star level. 

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