As we dismantle, the thing that worries me

[Number5]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Even if I assume we would have lost the Detroit series without Miller (which is speculative), I have trouble justify losing 6 months of service time for a solid starting pitcher for 2 months of a reliever.   In any event it didn’t get us to a World Series, and I don’t have to speculate about that.    

Rodriguez has accumulated 7.6 rWAR for Boston and has 2.4 seasons remaining to accumulate more.   Miller was worth 1.0 rWAR for us.    I just don’t feel that the O’s had the depth to make tradeoffs like that, even if they did get a strong short-term boost.    

As it turns out, 2014 was, indeed, our best shot.  I'm not unhappy that we went for it.

[esmd]

The bottom line is, the OP said that Duquette has lost every trade he's ever made, which is patently FALSE.  It's such a ridiculous blanket statement that it just shouldn't be taken with any degree of seriousness.

[OFFNY]

10 minutes ago, esmd said:

 

The bottom line is that the OP said that Duquette has lost every trade that he's ever made, which is PATENTLY FALSE. It's such a ridiculous blanket statement that it just shouldn't be taken with any degree of seriousness.

 

o

Agreed.

 

In game threads, I try to remind myself that hyperbolic comments are heat-of-the-moment outbursts, and the rules of said threads are correspondingly lenient/lax. 

 

On the main board, the same reasoning does not apply.

 

o

[Ruzious]

8 minutes ago, esmd said:

The bottom line is, the OP said that Duquette has lost every trade he's ever made, which is patently FALSE.  It's such a ridiculous blanket statement that it just shouldn't be taken with any degree of seriousness.

And it seems he's been trying to do his job with one hand tied behind his back.  

[Natty]

The Davis contract screwed us so bad we won't recover for years. Maybe the worst contract fiasco in mlb history. But it's everyone else's fault not DD's. Right?

[24fps]

10 hours ago, Cy Bundy said:

It’s odd that people reference hindsight as if that’s not how trades are supposed to be graded, just like drafts. Silliness.

Your reasoning - if you want to call it that - has a name.  It's called the historian's fallacy.  It's pretty simple, you analyze the quality of a decision based the information available at the time it was made.  By all means judge the outcome with the benefit of historical perspective, but not the process of making the decision itself.  If you want to do that go right ahead, but you're then obligated to go back in time and provide the decision maker with a reliable crystal ball and we all know that's just silly.

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

And it seems he's been trying to do his job with one hand tied behind his back.  

I know something you don't know...

[esmd]

4 minutes ago, Natty said:

The Davis contract screwed us so bad we won't recover for years. Maybe the worst contract fiasco in mlb history. But it's everyone else's fault not DD's. Right?

Ok, 1st, we're talking about trades, not FA signings, and 2nd, it's been well documented that there is a lot of uncertainty about just who was the driver behind the Davis deal.  Was it Buck?  Did Angelos himself say make the deal, or actually get involved and do the deal himself, at least in part?  I dunno how you indict Duquette on that with so much uncertainty over exactly who did what in regards to that.  And again, NO ONE expect Davis to be THIS bad.  Sure, I recall some folks saying he might end up being a .220-.230 hitter with 30HRS, but NO ONE thought he'd be hitting .150 and barely cracking double digits.  NO ONE.

[Ruzious]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I know something you don't know...

Touche - literally. 

[99ct]

10 hours ago, 24fps said:

Roundly applauded by almost everyone on this site at the time.  Correctly IMO.

Lol you are correct. Here's the thread. Not a lot of OH posters predicting Arrieta's success. Maybe one or two somewhere in there: 

 

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/15742-os-acquire-scott-feldman-for-arrieta/&tab=comments#comment-1175546

[foxfield]

7 minutes ago, Natty said:

The Davis contract screwed us so bad we won't recover for years. Maybe the worst contract fiasco in mlb history. But it's everyone else's fault not DD's. Right?

You honestly think wanted Davis?  Well then you should absolutely not want him to stay.  I don't think it is that simple, but I agree that if he was even slightly on board.....

[osfan83]

2 hours ago, theocean said:

Frobby, I always enjoy reading your take on here, but I feel like you often overrate Orioles prospects. Maybe, I underrate them as well.

On July 31, 2014 - the Orioles were 60-47 and in 1st place in the AL East - but only 1.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays. The O's were clearly a team competing to win it all. But, immediately, they also needed to win their division and avoid the Wild Card Game. They accomplished that, and Miller played a huge part by pitching 20 innings with 1.35 ERA.

Additionally, Bud Norris also played a huge part all year, putting up a 15-8 record with a 3.65 ERA and providing 2.1 WAR. If he's not there, Ubaldo is starting in October.

Hindsight is 20/20 - but I think the criticism of DD would be even greater if he had an Orioles team firing on all cylinders in 2014 and didn't add an impact bullpen arm like Andrew Miller. Just look at all the successful teams right now - they all want to add dominant bullpen arms to their teams.

The Cubs gave up Gleyber Torres for two months of Chapman. The Indians gave up Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield for Andrew Miller. The Indians just gave up Francisco Mejia for Brad Hand.

Yes, it'd be nice to have Eduardo Rodriguez and Josh Hader - but the Orioles added to their teams and tried to win it all. I can't fault them at all for that. They paid the price that was required at the time. 

I think it's a bit silly to not try to win when the team is actually winning - in favor of some prospects who might possibly down the road contribute to a winning team.

I don't think the 2018 Orioles would be much better if they had Eduardo Rodriguez or Josh Hader this year. We'd probably be all yelling about how the Front Office needs to trade them to get more prospects for the future. Sometimes, teams just have to try to win in the moment.

Great post.....I agree 100%. When you have a playoff team, try and win the World Series, even if you have to mortgage the future a bit. 

[gtman55]

I thought the Davis deal was mostly on Buck and Angelos. Angelos thought he had another Babe Ruth on his hands. A guy that people would pack the stands to see crush home runs. Didn't exactly work out as planned.

[weams]

3 hours ago, Whammer said:

Theo? You mean the genius that gave Jason Heyward $184M?  Talk about lopsided . . . . 

Beauty.

[weams]