Chris Davis Trade Possible in 2019-20?

[osfan83]

2 hours ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

There are probably a few teams that look at his juicy numbers a few years ago and think they can get him back on track.  I don't think we get a player back with a bad contract.  I think we find a team willing to take him with us paying most of the contract off and just wiping him from the books.  My feeling is, they can't go into a new season with a youthful roster while Chris Davis, their signature signing and constant reminder of this year's futility, potentially flops majorly again.  They can't take that PR chance.  His days are numbered, imo.

I disagree. I don't think anyone in the organization thinks we have a post season chance next year. It's going to be about saving money and developing young talent. Cutting Davis does cost you money, that's one more player you have to pay to take his place on the roster. I think he gets all of next year to try and turn it around. Only way he gets replaced in 2019 is if somehow we find ourselves in the WC race in June and he is OPSing .600....then the organization might bite the bullet and set him free.

[gmelson26]

19 minutes ago, beervendor said:

There's also the PR nightmare scenario where the team eats the contract and Davis goes on to find a moderate (or stunning) resurgence with another team. Currently, the team has only made one enormous miscalculation and a large portion of blame has fallen on the player. The money is spent either way, does the downside of blocking a prospect outweigh the risk of royally and very publicly screwing the proverbial pooch *AGAIN*? Laughingstock wouldn't begin to describe it. Not advocating any particular approach, just sayin...

I believe this is why he won't be cut, at least not this year or next.  Someone would take him at league minimum.  For league minimum, there's a chance he could DH/1B/PH against softer righties in a limited role for some value.  I don't think he will, but maybe something clicks; and that possibility will keep him clogging up the roster.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, gmelson26 said:

I believe this is why he won't be cut, at least not this year or next.  Someone would take him at league minimum.  For league minimum, there's a chance he could DH/1B/PH against softer righties in a limited role for some value.  I don't think he will, but maybe something clicks; and that possibility will keep him clogging up the roster.

Is filling that role worth a roster spot?

[gmelson26]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is filling that role worth a roster spot?

I don't think so, but we traded for Jim Thome in a limited role.  I'm not suggesting the 2 are comparable, but 32 year old CD having a good half season for TB or KC might be worth something if we're paying the bills. 

For the record, I'd release him at this point, maybe give him spring training next year to show something.  I'm just suggesting what I think the FO is weighing.  It would be a PR nightmare if he does anything for someone else while we pay the bills.

[Ruzious]

Mark me down for Davis being a completely hopeless situation.  

[osfan83]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Wake up and smell the coffee.   Chris Davis was bad in 2017 and horrible in 2018.   There is not team out there that will sign him to anything but a minor league contract with an invite to ST.    My guess is that Davis would walk away from the game if the O's released him.   His OPS has declined four years in a row and he's going to turn 33 next year.    We aren't getting anything for him and unless he goes on the Nelson Cruz diet, he's never going to be a plus offensive player again.   Giving him another year is just a foolish thing to do.  He's already been bad for 2 years.    His numbers have regressed significantly in virtually every offensive category for 4 straight years, coincidentally starting with his walk year when he need to put up big numbers to secure a once in a lifetime contract.    

The argument that cutting Davis is costing us money because we will have to pay someone else, most likely, the minimum of 600K to replace him is a laughable argument.   There is no realistic or sensible reason to keep Davis beyond this season unless you believe in the boogeyman and are just scared.

$600k becomes somewhat significant if you cut your payroll to $66M...and we might be headed that way. 

[osfan83]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Sorry.   I don't see 600K as significant at even a 66M payroll.

Have we ever seen the O's make a move to save $500k or $1m when our payroll was north of $100m? I seem to recall a couple of moves that were just expense savings activities bringing back $500k or so. 

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Wake up and smell the coffee.   Chris Davis was bad in 2017 and horrible in 2018.   There is not team out there that will sign him to anything but a minor league contract with an invite to ST.    My guess is that Davis would walk away from the game if the O's released him.   His OPS has declined four years in a row and he's going to turn 33 next year.    We aren't getting anything for him and unless he goes on the Nelson Cruz diet, he's never going to be a plus offensive player again.   Giving him another year is just a foolish thing to do.  He's already been bad for 2 years.    His numbers have regressed significantly in virtually every offensive category for 4 straight years, coincidentally starting with his walk year when he need to put up big numbers to secure a once in a lifetime contract.    

The argument that cutting Davis is costing us money because we will have to pay someone else, most likely, the minimum of 600K to replace him is a laughable argument.   There is no realistic or sensible reason to keep Davis beyond this season unless you believe in the boogeyman and are just scared.

I’d let him try to get his act together over the winter and wait until the end of the spring (if it’s obvious there’s been no improvement), or give him two months of next season (if more data is needed) before cutting him.   I think there’s less than a 5% chance we’ll see him bounce back to replacement level, but for $92 mm I think you give him that long to prove he’s not hopeless.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d let him try to get his act together over the winter and wait until the end of the spring (if it’s obvious there’s been no improvement), or give him two months of next season (if more data is needed) before cutting him.   I think there’s less than a 5% chance we’ll see him bounce back to replacement level, but for $92 mm I think you give him that long to prove he’s not hopeless.   

Davis is going to get one more chance to prove himself in 2019.  If Davis doesn’t improve next year then the Orioles will seriously consider releasing him. 

 

[Dipper9]

On 7/31/2018 at 12:53 PM, Frobby said:

It doesn’t really hurt them financially, because the money’s been spent either way.    As to emotionally, I’m sure his teammates like him, but playing with a guy who doesn’t belong on the field and not being able to call him out is probably more emotionally draining than what they’d feel if he was cut and replaced by some halfway competent player making the minimum salary.    So far as I’m concerned, he gets 2-3 months of 2019 to show he has rebounded to at least some respectable level.   If he hasn’t, then sayonara.   

Just remember, Jones went to ownership and asked that they pay Davis.  The players want to win...but they are happy for each other when they get paid as well.  

[Natty]

58 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Mark me down for Davis being a completely hopeless situation.  

Me too. Possibly the most expensive contract ever for a player who can't hit. And no way out of it. 

[esmd]

The only way Davis isn't on the team through the length of his contract is if the Orioles release him.  He's un-tradeable.  Even if he somehow, someway, put up a 2013 type season next year, I STILL don't think teams would want to risk trading for him due to the fear that another dive could come and the contract would become an albatross.  Other teams would wonder, rightfully so, if he resorted to artificial means to achieve that 180 degree turnaround.  Too much of a risk, even if that happened.   And to be blunt, the likelihood of him returning to his 2013, or even his 2015 level, is pretty much slim and none, and Slim just left town.

Nope, Davis will be an Oriole through the expiration of the contract unless they release him.  If that happens at all, I don't expect that to occur until the last year or year and a half of the contract.  If they move Trumbo, which is doable if they eat some money, then Mancini is no longer blocked in 2019 from 1B/DH.  Then you can play Davis at whatever spot you don't play Mancini, and hope for a miracle.  They're going to suck anyway, and they're stuck with him, so might as well keep running him out there in 2019 and beyond until he's blocking someone.

[Frobby]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Agree to disagree.   What do you consider getting his act together?     He hasn't had an OPS over .800 in the last 3 years.    Is his 2017 season, getting his act together when he had a negative WAR as well?      The 92M is going to Davis one way or another.     I don't see he need to hope that Davis gets back to being a .750 OPS player just so we can say we didn't get totally ripped off.    Move on!

I draw the line at replacement level.   The money is spent; if he provides replacement level value that saves the $600 k it would take to replace him.    But for the last two years he’s been sub-replacement level, and if it’s clear that’s going to continue then you dump him.   

[Satyr3206]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I highly doubt Mr. Buffett goes for that.

He hits for power. The ball is bigger. You never know.

[Redskins Rick]

Can we move his contract as a position player, and make Davis the manager next year?

I mean, since they have to pay him anyway?