Time to Follow the Rays SP Theory

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

Orioles are the worst team in baseball. Limped. 

Over .500 and have one player on their projected 2019 roster with a guaranteed contract.

[Frobby]

On 8/4/2018 at 7:08 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Limped.

56-54,  23 games ahead of the Orioles.

I think an objective observer has to say this worked well for Tampa.   Their starters have a 3.79 ERA, even though they’re only averaging a bit more than 4 IP per start.   The bullpen has a 3.99 ERA so it appears they’re not faltering with the workload.   It must be a pretty complicated system to manage.   The Rays have used 31 pitchers including 23 who have pitched 10+ innings.   By comparison the O’s have used 25 pitchers including 19 who have pitched 10+, 

[oriole]

I always thought it'd be a good idea to have a knuckle ball pitcher pitch the first 3 or 4 innings of a game. It'd mess up hitters timing a little. Of course the issue is finding a good knuckle ball pitcher.

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, oriole said:

I always thought it'd be a good idea to have a knuckle ball pitcher pitch the first 3 or 4 innings of a game. It'd mess up hitters timing a little. Of course the issue is finding a good knuckle ball pitcher.

Then the argument is: if he's a good knuckleball pitcher, why not give him five or six innings? Do you have him throw three innings every third game instead? I'm all for a knuckler, but if you only throw him every fifth day as a starter for 3-4 innings, that taxes the rest of the roster a bit.

[oriole]

4 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

Then the argument is: if he's a good knuckleball pitcher, why not give him five or six innings? Do you have him throw three innings every third game instead? I'm all for a knuckler, but if you only throw him every fifth day as a starter for 3-4 innings, that taxes the rest of the roster a bit.

In my mind it'd be cool to maybe start him every 3 days for 3 innings. Less stress on a knuckle ball pitchers arm plus less pitchs per appearance. It's a dumb idea, I know. But I like to think it'd keep hitters off balance. 

[Camden_yardbird]

I think the opener systems has merit.  It should be explored.  That said, if they had any of the the three pitchers who got TJ I think we would be seeing this once a week instead of what we are seeing.

[atomic]

What would be the point of using relievers to start games? It isn't like we are trying to win games so if the starters can't get guys out try someone new.  There are only 50 games left. So 10 starts per pitcher.  Bundy, Cobb and Cashner have 30 of those starts. I think we should have no problem finding other guys to start the other 20 games.  

[El Gordo]

On 8/4/2018 at 6:43 PM, weams said:

Oh, you are not alone. I am just not a gimmick guy. I'm a traditionalist. Pitching, defense. THREE run homers. 

That's great but when you have none of those three you need to try something. It's clear to me that the 18 out SP is going the way of the bunt.

[foxfield]

21 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

That's great but when you have none of those three (Pitching, defense. THREE run homers) you need to try something. It's clear to me that the 18 out SP is going the way of the bunt.

I agree with you completely, but actually that is technically wrong.  We really don't have defense but our pitching certainly gives up plenty of 3 run HRS.

[LookitsPuck]

I think the difference between the Orioles and the Rays is that the Rays have more pitching talent. That goes with not just these "openers", but the entirety of the pitching staff.

ERA in innings 1-3 vs 4-6:

• Dylan Bundy - 4.65 (4-6 is similar)
• Andrew Cashner - 4.96 (4-6 is similar)
• Alex Cobb - 4.50, 7.54
• Yefrey Ramirez - 4.58, 8.76
• David Hess - 5.40, 7.84

You're essentially going to have to patch work 3 out of 5 rotation spots if you go by the numbers, unless you think Alex Cobb is turning it around. So maybe you stick w/ Bundy, Cashner, Cobb (but maybe let Cobb go 4 or 5 IP based on his performance) and the #4 and #5 spots is the bullpen carousel?

 

[FlipTheBird]

1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

That's great but when you have none of those three you need to try something. It's clear to me that the 18 out SP is going the way of the bunt.

Given that 1/30 teams has embraced this, and we won't know until next year if they're going to stick with this... I don't see a lot of evidence, here. The teams that are winning divisions are still using SP's that they hope to get through 6 innings and then turning the game over to talented bullpens.

[FlipTheBird]

44 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I think the difference between the Orioles and the Rays is that the Rays have more pitching talent. That goes with not just these "openers", but the entirety of the pitching staff.

ERA in innings 1-3 vs 4-6:

• Dylan Bundy - 4.65 (4-6 is similar)
• Andrew Cashner - 4.96 (4-6 is similar)
• Alex Cobb - 4.50, 7.54
• Yefrey Ramirez - 4.58, 8.76
•  David Hess - 5.40, 7.84

 You're essentially going to have to patch work 3 out of 5 rotation spots if you go by the numbers, unless you think Alex Cobb is turning it around. So maybe you stick w/ Bundy, Cashner, Cobb (but maybe let Cobb go 4 or 5 IP based on his performance) and the #4 and #5 spots is the bullpen carousel?

 

Well strategy is key, too, which makes comparing the O's stats to the Rays apples to oranges.

If Dylan Bundy knows he's only throwing three innings, no matter what, he doesn't have to worry about saving his arm or staggering his pitch use to make it through, 5, 6 or 7 innings. He can show all 9 guys his baby slider because they won't see it again that day, etc.

[weams]

3 hours ago, foxfield said:

I agree with you completely, but actually that is technically wrong.  We really don't have defense but our pitching certainly gives up plenty of 3 run HRS.

What I was saying is I believe that is the goal for the rebuild. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

Given that 1/30 teams has embraced this, and we won't know until next year if they're going to stick with this... I don't see a lot of evidence, here. The teams that are winning divisions are still using SP's that they hope to get through 6 innings and then turning the game over to talented bullpens.

I agree. 

[weams]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think an objective observer has to say this worked well for Tampa.   Their starters have a 3.79 ERA, even though they’re only averaging a bit more than 4 IP per start.   The bullpen has a 3.99 ERA so it appears they’re not faltering with the workload.   It must be a pretty complicated system to manage.   The Rays have used 31 pitchers including 23 who have pitched 10+ innings.   By comparison the O’s have used 25 pitchers including 19 who have pitched 10+, 

The Orioles are not a good touch stone as they are the worst team.