Bundy should finish the season in the bullpen

[Ohfan67]

6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

The only reason I'd like to get him "fixed" is to trade him.  

Absolutely. I wasn’t talking about wins, I was talking about value to the Orioles. There are few if any other trade chips left To the Orioles. Bundy could still be very valuable or at least relatively valuable. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Absolutely. I wasn’t talking about wins, I was talking about value to the Orioles. There are few if any other trade chips left To the Orioles. Bundy could still be very valuable or at least relatively valuable. 

Yep.  Well, if there was a pitching candidate that we have that another team could "fix" it'd certainly be him.  

[Cumberbundy]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Riiiiiiight.  

 

Epigrammatic response, my friend.

Wouldn't be surprised if the homers he's given up are on hanging breaking ball pitches when he's been trying to go for a K. -You

Profoundly absurd speculation - those who watch the games know better — & don’t require resorting to speculation. He’s given up all of 2 HR’s in 43.1 innings through 0-2 counts, the same number as he’s given up in 2.0 innings through 3-0. Speculation is unnecessary, my friend.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

Bundy should have been shut down weeks ago.  This season has been a lost cause for a long time and I can't see any good reason not to shut Bundy down and hope he's better in the spring and nothing's wrong with his arm.  I remember the discussions before the trade deadline about Bundy's sky high value.  The O's would be lucky to get a couple of low level lotto tickets for him now.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

 

Epigrammatic response, my friend.

Wouldn't be surprised if the homers he's given up are on hanging breaking ball pitches when he's been trying to go for a K. -You

Profoundly absurd speculation - those who watch the games know better — & don’t require resorting to speculation. He’s given up all of 2 HR’s in 43.1 innings through 0-2 counts, the same number as he’s given up in 2.0 innings through 3-0. Speculation is unnecessary, my friend.

 

Ok, fancypants.  So you knew that information off the top of your head because you watch the games...?  I watch the games and all I know is that Bundy gets drilled, more often than not.  Maybe it's because he has a bad fastball which anyone here could tell you....but this backs it up:

Quote

 

To be clear, Bundy is not actually broken. Everyone has bad days at the office — it’s just that his was extraordinarily bad especially in light of how effective he had been for five weeks prior. In fact, I wrote about Bundy’s success just a couple of weeks ago, but it was prior to the Royals taking him behind the woodshed in one of Major League Baseball’s worst starts ever. The timing is serendipitous: three of the four home runs Bundy allowed came off his four-seamer. We’ve reached a breaking point.

Bundy’s four-seamer sucks. Among pitches thrown at least 2,000 times (by good or near-good pitchers) since the start of the 2016 season, his fastball might be the worst (or maybe 2nd-worst, behind only Chris Archer’s four-seamer). It allowed a 136 wRC+, roughly, during that span. Take your pick: for two years, on more than half his total pitches thrown, Bundy’s four-seamer turned his opposition into Charlie Blackmon, Justin Turner, Carlos Correa, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, et al. Thrown 2,540 times since the start of 2016, it’s equivalent to 25-plus starts’ worth of fastballs thrown to lineups comprised entirely of elite hitters. It’s hard to imagine a positive full-season outcome that has such a vulnerable half-season embedded in it.

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/addition-by-subtraction-fixing-dylan-bundy-long-term/

I'm simply seeing an uptick in his K/9 and HR/9 rate, both higher than last year.  Now, if you think that's a coincidence, fine.  Maybe it is.  All I can guess is that maybe he feels that he's gotta strike more guys out this year because his defenders suck.  His fastball usage is slightly down while his slider (a good pitch) is up.  

So since you're obviously the Bundy expert around these parts, my friend, why is he giving up homers at such an alarming rate?  Maybe he's just not...wait for it...Cy Bundy material.

[sportsfan8703]

BBref has Bundy at a 0.5 WAR and Hess at a 0.6. 

Bundy’s shoulder is jacked up. We’ll never be able to trade him because of that. He’s always going to wear down because of that. They guy is out there proving that he can make it through an entire MLB season without being shut down. I don’t know how smart that is but he’s obviously worn down/playing through a lot of pain. 

Post ASB he has a 7.80 ERA and guys are putting up a 1.041 OPS. He’s turning every hitter he faces into Barry Bonds. 

In the future I think the 10 day DL is a perfect tool we should use for him 2-3 times a season to keep him fresh. He’s trying to shake the label that he’s always hurt but he is. It’s tough luck but it’s not helping him. 

[weams]

12 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Ok, fancypants.  So you knew that information off the top of your head because you watch the games...?  I watch the games and all I know is that Bundy gets drilled, more often than not.  Maybe it's because he has a bad fastball which anyone here could tell you....but this backs it up:

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/addition-by-subtraction-fixing-dylan-bundy-long-term/

I'm simply seeing an uptick in his K/9 and HR/9 rate, both higher than last year.  Now, if you think that's a coincidence, fine.  Maybe it is.  All I can guess is that maybe he feels that he's gotta strike more guys out this year because his defenders suck.  His fastball usage is slightly down while his slider (a good pitch) is up.  

So since you're obviously the Bundy expert around these parts, my friend, why is he giving up homers at such an alarming rate?  Maybe he's just not...wait for it...Cy Bundy material.

Good post. You and fancy should tone back the personal smackathon though.

[weams]

48 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

Bundy’s shoulder is jacked up. We’ll never be able to trade him because of that. He’s always going to wear down because of that. They guy is out there proving that he can make it through an entire MLB season without being shut down. I don’t know how smart that is but he’s obviously worn down/playing through a lot of pain. 

 

This. This. 

[weams]

12 hours ago, Cy Bundy said:

 

Epigrammatic response, my friend.

Wouldn't be surprised if the homers he's given up are on hanging breaking ball pitches when he's been trying to go for a K. -You

Profoundly absurd speculation - those who watch the games know better — & don’t require resorting to speculation. He’s given up all of 2 HR’s in 43.1 innings through 0-2 counts, the same number as he’s given up in 2.0 innings through 3-0. Speculation is unnecessary, my friend.

 

It's possible that he has been telegraphing  -  and that explains some of it. But certainly this is not the Bundy we thought he was. 

[Tx Oriole]

12 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Bundy should have been shut down weeks ago.  This season has been a lost cause for a long time and I can't see any good reason not to shut Bundy down and hope he's better in the spring and nothing's wrong with his arm.  I remember the discussions before the trade deadline about Bundy's sky high value.  The O's would be lucky to get a couple of low level lotto tickets for him now.

I think you are right.

[joelala]

Trade him in the winter for a top 100 prospect and call it a day.  Demand a top 100 prospect or don't trade him.  Do not get 'Gausmaned' again.  I think the Gausman resurgence of sorts may raise Bundy's trade value to a team that is confident in his ability to fix him.  But I'm confident we cannot fix him, so lets get something for him.  Also, the shoulder scares me.

[Ohfan67]

Just thinking out loud about Bundy's weird HR versus SO stats. It seems likely that if he can get a hitter in a two strike count, then he's very effective with the slider. His fastball is pretty putrid right now, so I suspect that most of the home runs are in zero or one strike counts where he's using the fastball more. I have to get some real work done now so I don't have time to explore the data, but I suspect that Bundy is more successful than the average pitcher when they get hitters into two strike counts. So I expect Bundy shows extreme pitcher's versus hitter's count spits. It's a weird marriage: a crappy fastball and a great off speed pitch. 

[joelala]

9 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Just thinking out loud about Bundy's weird HR versus SO stats. It seems likely that if he can get a hitter in a two strike count, then he's very effective with the slider. His fastball is pretty putrid right now, so I suspect that most of the home runs are in zero or one strike counts where he's using the fastball more. I have to get some real work done now so I don't have time to explore the data, but I suspect that Bundy is more successful than the average pitcher when they get hitters into two strike counts. So I expect Bundy shows extreme pitcher's versus hitter's count spits. It's a weird marriage: a crappy fastball and a great off speed pitch. 

It screams bullpen.

[LookitsPuck]

I'd shut him down. 

Dylan Bundy was placed on the DL with a sprained ankle on June 26th. Prior to June 26th, he had the following stat line:

3.75 ERA, .238/.299/.440 - .739 OPS, 1.7 HR/9, 10.1 SO/9, 2.7 BB/9, .288 BAbip, 1.208 WHIP

But after June 26th?

8.46 ERA, .335/.382/.665 - 1.047 OPS, 3.1 HR/9, 8.5 SO/9, 2.7 BB/9, .359 BAbip, 1.760 WHIP

Home run rate nearly doubled. Strikeout rate down. Hit rate has exploded. More than doubled his ERA. Everything is bad.

I'd shut him down, call up some kids and let him rest his ankle/body the rest of the way.

[LA2]

42 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I'd shut him down. 

Dylan Bundy was placed on the DL with a sprained ankle on June 26th. Prior to June 26th, he had the following stat line:

3.75 ERA, .238/.299/.440 - .739 OPS, 1.7 HR/9, 10.1 SO/9, 2.7 BB/9, .288 BAbip, 1.208 WHIP

But after June 26th?

8.46 ERA, .335/.382/.665 - 1.047 OPS, 3.1 HR/9, 8.5 SO/9, 2.7 BB/9, .359 BAbip, 1.760 WHIP

Home run rate nearly doubled. Strikeout rate down. Hit rate has exploded. More than doubled his ERA. Everything is bad.

I'd shut him down, call up some kids and let him rest his ankle/body the rest of the way.

That's a pretty clear split.