Britton on the use of analytics in New York vs. Baltimore

[atomic]

13 minutes ago, weams said:

I bet not. 

I am sure you could.  Lot of guys blocked in minors or in Japan.  Plus we have a very untalented team.  

[atomic]

On 10/11/2018 at 12:23 PM, eddie83 said:

The manager wanted nothing to do with the data. We have no idea here if it could have helped or not.

The Athletic article showed how 2 members of the analytics staff left after last season because ownership didn’t value analytics.  

The Orioles issue was ownerships lack of interest and a great but hard headed manager who wanted nothing to do with it.  

I wonder if they will make a movie about this like in money ball.  Dan Akroyd could play DD.  David Spade could be Buck.  They could call it Dummy ball.

[TonySoprano]

Quote

It turns out better positioning isn’t the only difference in Manny Machado’s defense at shortstop since his trade from the Orioles to the Dodgers. Chris Woodward, the Dodgers’ third-base coach and infield instructor, is making an impact on Machado, too.

Woodward said he challenged Machado to improve his anticipation by processing pitch types and locations from the Dodgers’ signs, then reacting with his body accordingly.

“When he catches the ball, he’s the best in the game,” Woodward said. “He just needs to be getting to the ball.”

As I wrote last week, Machado also benefits from playing for a team with better pitchers than the Orioles had — Clayton Kershaw, for example, can be trusted to hit his spots.

“We’re talking millimeters,” Woodward said. “But every millimeter you gain gives you a better chance to get to the ball — and not just get to it, but be in good position when you do.”

 

[Chromehill]

25 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

 

If your read George Will's "Men at Work", I believe that is what Ripken did.  Based on positioning upon the pitch and location. 

[clapdiddy]

28 minutes ago, Chromehill said:

If your read George Will's "Men at Work", I believe that is what Ripken did.  Based on positioning upon the pitch and location. 

Yup.   I'm surprised that the immortal Bobby Dickerson doesn't emphasize this. 

[OregonBird]

1 hour ago, Chromehill said:

If your read George Will's "Men at Work", I believe that is what Ripken did.  Based on positioning upon the pitch and location. 

Pretty basic stuff, most good infielders should be doing this already and signaling to their outfielders.

[baltfan]

46 minutes ago, OregonBird said:

Pretty basic stuff, most good infielders should be doing this already and signaling to their outfielders.

This is so true.  Moreover, Machado was awful in the first month.  I wonder if you took the first month out how different then numbers vs. his Dodgers' numbers would be.  Finally, all of this is SSS.  Defensive numbers are notoriously unreliable with SSS.  

Orioles need to work on their analytics, but Machado's "improvement" doesn't prove anything.  

[Going Underground]

21 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

 

Manny does have three errors in seven games in the postseason. Not a good percentage.

[Going Underground]

The question, of course, was: How do the Astros get remarkable, unmistakable improvement out of seemingly every pitcher they acquire? (Helpful hint: it isn’t the magic dust.) And Pressly, a 29-year-old right-hander still new to the organization, is that question’s latest flesh-and-blood incarnation.

Pressly was a perfectly serviceable, occasionally excellent relief pitcher over parts of six seasons with the Minnesota Twins, with a 3.75 career ERA, one career save, a 1.303 WHIP and a strikeout ratio that had climbed steadily over those years until, by July 2018, it was among the highest in the league. It was that strikeout ratio, and the spectacular curveball behind it, that attracted the Astros, who sent two prospects to Minnesota in a trade for him on July 27.

 

“Honestly,” Pressly said, “it’s the preparation of the [Astros’] analytics department. They tell us what works and what’s not going to work — the percentages, how to set up your mix of pitches, how to attack hitters.”

 

“Every team has an analytics department, and this is no knock on the Twins, but seeing the time [the Astros] put in and the scouting reports you’re given, it’s like, ‘Whoa.’ It’s a different level,” Pressly said. “You kind of see, ‘Wow, if I just pitch a little more to this percentage instead of that percentage I can have some better results.’ When I came over here, they were like, ‘Look, your curveball is your best pitch. Everyone tells you your best pitch should be your fastball. But with the amount of spin you have on the ball, you need to throw that more, and it will set up your fastball even more.’ ”

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/15/magic-dust-spin-rates-buy-in-how-astros-make-good-pitchers-even-better/?utm_term=.62cd32d94fbf

[Frobby]

This is a good thread, with lots of interesting information.   Anyone who thinks analytics is a passing fad is burying their head in the sand.    Given two equally talented teams, the team with the better information is going to win the majority of the time — not all the time, because the players still need to execute, and sometimes they don’t no matter what information they have.   It’s disappointing to see Dan and Buck squabbling over whether Buck and his coaches were using all the information they were given.   No matter who’s right, it reflects badly on the team that the GM and manager weren’t on the same page.   It makes me glad that we’ve cleaned house and that the next GM will pick the manager.

[Ohfan67]

On 10/12/2018 at 5:06 PM, TonySoprano said:

It's very curious that the rumors say the next GM will have more power and leeway than Dan was given.  My guess is there was so much bad blood with all involved, the boys are deciding to wipe the slate clean. 

I am hopeful the next GM or whatever the title will be does have way more authority. But we have heard rumblings of this before. Not as clearly as the sons have said via Orioles press release, but there have been rumblings of this with the hiring of MacPhail, etc. Let's keep our fingers crossed. 

[Ohfan67]

On 10/11/2018 at 2:30 PM, weams said:

Opinions or human interpretation on science changes with the wind. The actual science remains as it was. 

WORD. One of my buddies has a shirt that says "Science doesn't care what you believe." Amen (pun intended). 

[Ohfan67]

We've always heard rumblings that DD and Buck were not on the same page, but now we're hearing more specifics. Of course some of these leaks may be agenda driven and include a fair share of butt covering. Nobody is going to want to accept responsibility for poor decisions. But ultimately we all knew that DD was not given full control when he didn't get to hire his own manager. That's nothing new for Peter...they didn't even let Hargrove hire his own coaches (and other managers were stuck with coaches, if I remember correctly). It sounds like the sons have a more realistic idea of how GM's are supposed to function. I hope they are able to settle the MASN issue and get the organization moving in the right direction on all fronts. I have often been skeptical of the idea that the Angelos sons are going to be better than their father, but I am rooting for them. 

[Frobby]

On 10/11/2018 at 3:13 PM, weams said:

Science is always settled. Opinions on it never are. 

I don’t agree with this.   Science is not a synonym for fact.   Science is a general methodology for attempting to determine fact.    

[TonySoprano]

Quote

It also served as another example of the chasm between Showalter and Duquette. To summarize, Showalter basically said he found it comical that the suggestion would be made that he wouldn’t use all information available. Conversely, Duquette inferred it wasn’t coincidental that several players, specifically pitchers, quickly improved after they left Baltimore and Showalter’s staff.

The truth lies somewhere within, but the reaction to the premise is what was so telling.

Showalter immediately got on the defensive, and gave the impression that he embraced analytics. It was an impression he needed to give. With the landscape of baseball changing to the point that it is blanketed in numbers and graphs, Showalter couldn’t allow himself to be painted as an old dinosaur not willing to accept today’s statistical advances.

What I found illuminating was Showalter started that campaign in the last month or so of the 2018 season. After years of pointing out that “analytics” doesn’t show a specific ability or little noticed scenario, Showalter in September began talking, unprompted, about the involvement of analytics in the way his staff picks up things or conducts business, even giving credit once to Duquette’s analytics department.

To me, it was again the brilliant mind of Showalter at work. The handwriting on the wall said Showalter would be gone, but he wasn’t leaving without publicly expressing his understanding of analytics. “I’m not a dinosaur” was the underlying message of those soliloquies and, later, his comments to Rosenthal.

Frankly, I do believe Showalter will embrace any information if he thinks it can help him win. The man is uber-prepared, and I don’t think he is averse to analytics. I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game. And that, to me, is why Showalter may have trouble initially landing another managerial job despite such a tremendous baseball acumen and nearly unparalleled resume. No general manager wants to hire a guy that won’t listen to him – and that’s a perception that Showalter will have to combat.

As for Duquette, sniping back at Showalter by pointing out the regression of pitchers and that agents were griping about Showalter’s lack of analytic management only makes Duquette look bad. Any first-year public relations student would have told Duquette not to take the bait. He should have countered Showalter’s quotes by reverting to his usual Dan-speak. Instead, he took a stand, used specific examples and sounded both petty and like he didn’t have control of – or didn’t communicate well with — his manager, who in most places is under the GM in organizational hierarchy.