The way to win the World Series is to lose big for three years

[wildcard]

Let's call it the "Houston plan".   This is the plan I would expect Mike Elias to follow if he becomes GM.   Its the plan that Houston Astros GM Jeff Luhnow followed to get them to the World Series and make them a perennial  contender for several years.

1) Lose big for three years 2019-2021.   The first three year after Luhnow took over the Astros  lost 107, 111 and 92.  And they wanted to lose big.  That is the way they got the high draft choices to fuel their drive to the World Series.    And with the Analytics approach it was not just the first round that mattered.  They  get draftees that could develop into major leaguers from lower in the draft.

What this means to the 2019 Orioles is Hays may stay in the minors next season to delay his service time.    The payroll will be driven down a far as possible with resources going to scouting,  player development and analytics.   The 2nd season after Luhnow was hired the Astros payroll was 26m.  The O's can't get that low because they are stuck with Davis 23m per year contract.  But anyone over 23 is only on the payroll to drive their trade value to its peak so the O's can add young players to the World Series drive.    Look for Cobb, Cashner, Bundy, Trumbo, Mancini, Givens, Bleier and even 27 year old Branden  Kline who has not even made the majors yet to be kept only long enough to be at peak trade value before they go.

The only player that was on the major league roster when Luhnow took over that was on the World Series team was Jose Altuve.  

2) Make the playoffs in 2022.   Sign your best player(s) to long term contract before free agency. Altiuve signed 4 year 12.5m contract with two option years.   Sign some mid range veteran free agents to full holes and supplement the young players.   Luhnow signed Feldman 3/30, Lowrie 3/23, Rasmus 1/8 ,Gregerson 3/18.5, Neshek  2/12.5, Qualls 2/6.   The Astros made the playoffs in year 4.

3) Win the World Series in 2024.   The draft choices that were accumulated in the losing years are now in the majors with some experience. Make the big moves.  Trade for Verlander at 28m per season.  Add McCann 5/85 ,Reddick 4/52, Beltran 1/16.    Sign your  key player(s)  to keep them Gurriel 5/47.5   Luhnow won the World Series 6 years after he took over.

4) A player development orienedt manager initially.  Since the team is expect to lose for the first three years I would expect the manager he selects to be an inexpensive player development type.  Lunnow's kept Brad Mills of part of the first year and then hired first time manager Bo Porter.   When the team was ready to win he hired AJ Hinch.

That is the what I expect Elias would try to duplicate.  If Elias is really hired, hold on for the ride!

[Aglets]

I mean I'd be somewhat interested in a "2024 Or Bust!" style T-shirt but something tells me that the marketing folks in the Warehouse aren't gonna go that route.  

Agree that something like this will be likely path they aim to follow......hopefully a little more accelerated, but who knows.  They'll be competing with the two biggest payroll monsters in the AL now as opposed to......the Angels and Rangers?  so it's going to be a tougher path.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Aglets said:

I mean I'd be somewhat interested in a "2024 Or Bust!" style T-shirt but something tells me that the marketing folks in the Warehouse aren't gonna go that route.  

Agree that something like this will be likely path they aim to follow......hopefully a little more accelerated, but who knows.  They'll be competing with the two biggest payroll monsters in the AL now as opposed to......the Angels and Rangers?  so it's going to be a tougher path.

 With this approach other teams payroll does not matter for at least 7 years because young talent is cheap.   The Astros made the playoffs with a payroll on 82m.   They won the World Series with a payroll of 140m.   Its all about accumulating the young talent during the time that the team is getting the high draft choices in the losing years.

[Moose Milligan]

Hey @wildcard I don't think they have much of a choice.  Just a hunch.

[theocean]

The Astros rebuild always felt like it took a long time - but you're right, it started in 2011 when they traded Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. In 2015, they made the playoffs.

During that time, they had three top overall picks and one second overall pick. That resulted in: Carlos Correa, Mark Appel, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. Brady Aiken famously did not sign and the Astros received pick compensation the following year.

I think the O's might take a little bit longer to rebuild because the Astros already had drafted George Springer 11th overall in 2011. They had already signed Altuve. They had already drafted Keuchel. 

No one really thought the Astros had a future MVP in Altuve and a future Cy Young in Keuchel, so we'll see if the O's already have someone in their system like that - but I'm very doubtful. I'll admit that I'm not the biggest fan of the Orioles current prospects.

 

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Hey @wildcard I don't think they have much of a choice.  Just a hunch.

John Angelos could have went a difference way.  Ben Cherington probably does not follow the "Houston plan".  When he got control of the Red Sox he traded a bunch of expensive players and then in the same year signed a bunch 2nd tier major leaguers.  He kept his veterans that he thought he could win with.   In that scenario Bundy, Cobb,  Givens, Mancini probably all stay.   Cherington won the World Series in his 2nd year.  When he got to pick his own manager.  Cherington's scouting and player development skills allowed him to win the WS and still accumulate  young players to position the Red Sox to win in 2018..

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

John Angelos could have went a difference way.  Ben Cherington probably does not follow the "Houston plan".  When he got control of the Red Sox he traded a bunch of expensive players and then in the same year signed a bunch 2nd tier major leaguers.  He kept his veterans that he thought he could win with.   In that scenario Bundy, Cobb,  Givens, Mancini probably all stay.   Cherington won the World Series in his 2nd year.  When he got to pick his own manager.  Cherington's scouting and player development skills allowed him to win the WS and still accumulate  young players to position the Red Sox to win in 2018..

I don't think anyone would believe that Bundy, Cobb, Givens and Mancini would be any kind of core to build around.  The Orioles aren't going to win in the next three years in any scenario.

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, theocean said:

The Astros rebuild always felt like it took a long time - but you're right, it started in 2011 when they traded Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. In 2015, they made the playoffs.

During that time, they had three top overall picks and one second overall pick. That resulted in: Carlos Correa, Mark Appel, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. Brady Aiken famously did not sign and the Astros received pick compensation the following year.

I think the O's might take a little bit longer to rebuild because the Astros already had drafted George Springer 11th overall in 2011. They had already signed Altuve. They had already drafted Keuchel. 

No one really thought the Astros had a future MVP in Altuve and a future Cy Young in Keuchel, so we'll see if the O's already have someone in their system like that - but I'm very doubtful. I'll admit that I'm not the biggest fan of the Orioles current prospects.

 

I think the O's are about where the Astros were at the time Luhnow took over.  The O's have Hays, Diaz, DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez who all project to be part the O's next playoff team.  There could be more in the system like Kremer but those 4 are the most likely future  stars.  The O's have also secured that #1 choice in next years draft.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, wildcard said:

  The O's have also secured that #1 choice in next years draft.

Is that what they call it these days?

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think anyone would believe that Bundy, Cobb, Givens and Mancini would be any kind of core to build around.  The Orioles aren't going to win in the next three years in any scenario.

I disagree.   Those players surrounded with better players look a whole lot better than they do after being on a 47-115 team.   Bundy was 13-9 in 2017 and had a 3.75 ERA after 16 starts in 2018.  Cobb has been a winner for several years  with low ERA before this season.  Givens has all the stuff to be a closer.   Mancini had 24 homers in his first year and with a better team he can be a 30 homer guy, hit for a  850 OPS and if he plays 1B everyday he would be a lot better.  Villar would stay and he stole 62 bases one year and we saw that he still has that ability.    There is talent on the current roster.  Just not enough on it.

None of that happens under the "Houston plan" though.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Is that what they call it these days?

After May 2nd when the O's were 10 games out of the wildcard race, I was rooting four the O's to lose enough to get the #1 draft choice. They didn't have to lose as many as they did but what the heck.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I disagree.   Those players surrounded with better players look a whole lot better than they do after being on a 47-115 team.   Bundy was 13-9 in 2017 and had a 3.75 ERA after 16 starts in 2018.  Cobb has been a winner for several years  with low ERA before this season.  Givens has all the stuff to be a closer.   Mancini had 24 homers in his first year and with a better team he can be a 30 homer guy, hit for a  850 OPS and if he plays 1B everyday he would be a lot better.  Villar would stay and he stole 62 bases one year and we saw that he still has that ability.    There is talent on the current roster.  Just not enough on it.

None of that happens under the "Houston plan" though.

We can agree to disagree, I suppose.  You make some decent cases for that core but, IMO, you'd have to bring in massive talent in order for it to happen.  And they'd have to all pan out, literally every string they pull would have to be the correct one.  

[Frobby]

Seems to me that one possible outcome of having a better analytics staff is that the existing players get better information and perform better (see Zach Britton’s comments on the data he was getting from the Yankees).    So, there could be some improvement even before the actual talent base has been improved.   But yes, I’m expecting the team to get shellacked for the next few years.   Just how many years remains to be seen.   

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

We can agree to disagree, I suppose.  You make some decent cases for that core but, IMO, you'd have to bring in massive talent in order for it to happen.  And they'd have to all pan out, literally every string they pull would have to be the correct one.  

Cherington  signed seven key free agents — David Ross, Jonny Gomes, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara and Ryan Dempster for the 2013 WS team.  So you are right.   It takes a lot of adding and things had to go his way.

[Aglets]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

 With this approach other teams payroll does not matter for at least 7 years because young talent is cheap.   The Astros made the playoffs with a payroll on 82m.   They won the World Series with a payroll of 140m.   Its all about accumulating the young talent during the time that the team is getting the high draft choices in the losing years.

Disagree with the first sentence.

The Yankees and Red Sox are better than the Rangers and Angels....that was my point.  A huge reason why they are better than those teams is their ability to have $200M payrolls.   I'm sure we can build a competitive team with a low payroll, but I'm saying the obstacles to overcome in the AL East are harder than in the West.