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Will Elias trade this off season or at the trade deadline

wildcard

By wildcard
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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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I found it interesting that when Jeff Luhnow took over the Astros in the fall of 2011 he did not trade away most of his veteran assets.  In fact he traded for Lowrie to be his SS.  It wasn't until the trade deadline that Luhnow made several trades to low his payroll.  

What will Elias do?   Trumbo and Cashner probably can't be moved until the trade deadline if then without eating salary.  Cobb and Bleier could be traded as soon as they show they are healthy.   Givens did not have a great season in 2018 but his value may still be quite high because of this stuff.  When and whether Bundy is traded is a good question.  He didn't have a good season but he did pitch very well until late June when he injured himself on the base paths.  Villar  could probably be traded this off season and get some value in return. Mancini is still cheap but his age means he probably gets traded before the O's are contenders again.

Elias may want to see how some of these players do with more analytic data.   Maybe they can improve and increase their value.

Elias' opening statement talked about trusting in the process.  The process with the Astros was to trade veterans for young players to improve the number and qualify of prospects in the farm system.   I would think this will happen at some point with the O's.   The question is when will that happen?

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gmelson26 Veteran All-Star

gmelson26

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17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I found it interesting that when Jeff Luhnow took over the Astros in the fall of 2011 he did not trade away most of his veteran assets.  In fact he traded for Lowrie to be his SS.  It wasn't until the trade deadline that Luhnow made several trades to low his payroll.  

What will Elias do?   Trumbo and Cashner probably can't be moved until the trade deadline if then without eating salary.  Cobb and Bleier could be traded as soon as they show they are healthy.   Givens did not have a great season in 2018 but his value may still be quite high because of this stuff.  When and whether Bundy is traded is a good question.  He didn't have a good season but he did pitch very well until late June when he injured himself on the base paths.  Villar  could probably be traded this off season and get some value in return. Mancini is still cheap but his age means he probably gets traded before the O's are contenders again.

Elias may want to see how some of these players do with more analytic data.   Maybe they can improve and increase their value.

Elias' opening statement talked about trusting in the process.  The process with the Astros was to trade veterans for young players to improve the number and qualify of prospects in the farm system.   I would think this will happen at some point with the O's.   The question is when will that happen?

Concerning the potential midseason trades, I'm hoping we put a premium focus on defense.  Let's make our pitchers look as nice and shiny as we can for their trade value.

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hoosiers Hangout Grand Counsel

hoosiers

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Folks need to understand the Astroball process.  It was certainly not simply trading veterans for young players.  It was about attempting to create the most advanced player evaluation system (taking into account historical probabilities of similar players and similar skill sets, scouts opinions, injury likelikhood, etc.) for all players - high school, college, minors and MLB.  Other advanced data spoke to hitting or defensive traits or weaknesses of players.  I expect our new front office will make a trade at any time that will improve the long term prospect of the organization.  For now, given our competitive situation, yes, I would expect us to deal veterans and their contracts for prospects.  It is my opinion that relievers are a valued currency in today's game and our front office has the best chance to obtain prospect value by finding quality relievers to trade during the season.  

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

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11 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

I'm hoping we see a noticeable improvement in Bundy, Cashner, and Cobb during the season and are able to get a better haul for them at the deadline. I don't think any of them have much value right now. 

Cobb pitched well in the second half and frankly I expect that from him.    Cashner is a mediocre pitcher (which is different from a horrible pitcher) who can probably do a little better than last year but I’m not expecting huge improvement.   

Bundy is the interesting one.   I still hold out hope for a breakout from him.   We’ve seen stretches of 8-10 games where he dominates.    I think with a little analytical help and targeted managing and coaching he still could make a huge leap forward.    But there’s no guarantee it happens.   

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Dark Helmet Hangout Grand Counsel

Dark Helmet

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Cobb should be by no means traded this winter. 

1. His value is at its lowest

2. Someone has to pitch

3. Someone has to show they are ready to fill the void.

I'm not against trading Cobb or Cashner, but not until they have their replacements identified. This team only has 3 starters penciled in as it is, so they are going to have to already fill 2 spots.

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Tx Oriole Hangout Grand Counsel

Tx Oriole

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I found it interesting that when Jeff Luhnow took over the Astros in the fall of 2011 he did not trade away most of his veteran assets.  In fact he traded for Lowrie to be his SS.  It wasn't until the trade deadline that Luhnow made several trades to low his payroll.  

What will Elias do?   Trumbo and Cashner probably can't be moved until the trade deadline if then without eating salary.  Cobb and Bleier could be traded as soon as they show they are healthy.   Givens did not have a great season in 2018 but his value may still be quite high because of this stuff.  When and whether Bundy is traded is a good question.  He didn't have a good season but he did pitch very well until late June when he injured himself on the base paths.  Villar  could probably be traded this off season and get some value in return. Mancini is still cheap but his age means he probably gets traded before the O's are contenders again.

Elias may want to see how some of these players do with more analytic data.   Maybe they can improve and increase their value.

Elias' opening statement talked about trusting in the process.  The process with the Astros was to trade veterans for young players to improve the number and qualify of prospects in the farm system.   I would think this will happen at some point with the O's.   The question is when will that happen?

I hope so. Happy Thanksgiving to all O's fans. 

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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7 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Cobb should be by no means traded this winter. 

1. His value is at its lowest

2. Someone has to pitch

3. Someone has to show they are ready to fill the void.

I'm not against trading Cobb or Cashner, but not until they have their replacements identified. This team only has 3 starters penciled in as it is, so they are going to have to already fill 2 spots.

From what I have read the Astros did not worry about  who was going to pitch or who was ready to fill a void for the first few season.  Their total focus was on building a team to win a championship.  That is why they lost over 100 for first two years after Luhnow arrived and 90 losses the  third year.

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Dark Helmet Hangout Grand Counsel

Dark Helmet

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29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

From what I have read the Astros did not worry about  who was going to pitch or who was ready to fill a void for the first few season.  Their total focus was on building a team to win a championship.  That is why they lost over 100 for first two years after Luhnow arrived and 90 losses the  third year.

Most of if not any of the young pitchers are even ready. Do you risk ruining them and rushing them? Start their service clock years before they're ready to contend? Sign a bunch of veterans or just go with the veterans you already have. The team isn't going to be big players in free agency. They had alot coming off the book with a few more salaries coming off next year. Cobb isn't that expensive to where they should trade him Now, much less give him away now.

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scOtt Hangout Grand Counsel

scOtt

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5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

From what I have read the Astros did not worry about  who was going to pitch or who was ready to fill a void for the first few season.  Their total focus was on building a team to win a championship.  That is why they lost over 100 for first two years after Luhnow arrived and 90 losses the  third year.

That's what I took from that article you posted. EVERY deal is looking towards the future of the organization. If it puts us a pitcher short in the rotation or pen this year, so be it. The focus is building and developing the minors so that we can fill ML spots later from our minor league system. As the MiL system improves we have more and more spots filled at the ML level.

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WarehouseChatter Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

WarehouseChatter

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It would be great to get an under the radar prospect like the Cubs did when they traded Cashner for Rizzo.  Don’t get me wrong, Rizzo was a top 100 guy, but there was a lot of criticism about him.  The Cubs saw something and then essentially built around him.  Who is our guy to build around?  Would be nice to have someone prior to the draft.  That way, the draft will just add a piece around the pillar.

Can we package Bundy, Cobb and Villar for a first piece?

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