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Dumping a Bad Contract. Is the Bar About to be Set?

wildbillhiccup

By wildbillhiccup
in Orioles Talk

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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I think the bar is about to be set for what it's going to take to dump a REALLY bad contract. 

Cano (35 years old) is set to make $24M a year (adjusted) through 2023. 

Davis (32 years old) is set to make $21M a year (adjusted) through 2022. 

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Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports that the parameters of a Mets-Mariners involving Robinson Cano would include Seattle covering $10 million annually over the final five seasons of his contract.

Cano is still owed $120 million, so this would take the contract down to about $70 million, or $14 million per season. There's more to the proposed deal, as the Mets would want the Mariners to take on Jay Bruce's contract ($26 million over the next two seasons) while also getting them to include either Edwin Diaz or Mitch Haniger in the deal. The Mets would presumably have to include a prospect to convince the M's to part with one of them. It's unclear how realistic this scenario is at this time, but Cano has a full no-trade clause and there might not be many takers on the trade front. We'll soon find out how determined the Mariners are to truly move Cano.
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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As I pointed out in another thread, Cano has been worth 23.6 rWAR in the first five years of his deal.   He was worth 3.2 rWAR last season despite being suspended for 80 games.    At prevailing FA prices, he’s already earned about $195 mm of his $240 mm deal.    He may not be worth $120 mm over the next 5 years, but for now he’s still a very good, productive player. He’s not at all comparable to Chris Davis, who just had one of the worst seasons in major league history.     

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MomoMan316 A-Ball

MomoMan316

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Ummmmm, not really. Cano can actually still make contact with a baseball. The first 5 years of his 10 year deal he has had WAR of 6.4, 3.4, 7.3, 3.4, 3.2 (with an 80 game suspension!). Chris Davis in the first 3 years of the 7 year deal has had WAR of 3.3, -0.1, -2.8 per Baseball Reference. The Mariners just want to clear the books and start clean. Cano might not be able to play 2B every day anymore, so moving him to 1B/ DH might be the only actual comparison you can make between him and Davis. No team will trade for Davis even if the Orioles ate every last cent of his contract.

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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

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Talk about dumping contracts, one of the rumors was Cano to the Yankees for Jacoby Ellsbury, who missed all of 2018, underwent hip surgery in August, and is still owed $47M over the next 2+ seasons.   Why any team would be foolish enough to take on Ellsbury's contract is beyond me, no matter how much the NY media wish it could happen.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As I pointed out in another thread, Cano has been worth 23.6 rWAR in the first five years of his deal.   He was worth 3.2 rWAR last season despite being suspended for 80 games.    At prevailing FA prices, he’s already earned about $195 mm of his $240 mm deal.    He may not be worth $120 mm over the next 5 years, but for now he’s still a very good, productive player. He’s not at all comparable to Chris Davis, who just had one of the worst seasons in major league history.     

Don't forget that the Mariners didn't have to pay him those 80 games.

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NCRaven Hangout Grand Counsel

NCRaven

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Cano has little defensive value, at this point, but remains a solid hitter.  It's a very bad contract, but not historically bad at Davis levels, as was pointed out to me by Frobby and Corn when I made a similar comparison earlier.  It will be interesting to see how much of the contract Seattle will have to eat in order to move Cano, but it really won't be very instructive for the O's.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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3 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Cano has little defensive value, at this point, but remains a solid hitter.  It's a very bad contract, but not historically bad at Davis levels, as was pointed out to me by Frobby and Corn when I made a similar comparison earlier.  It will be interesting to see how much of the contract Seattle will have to eat in order to move Cano, but it really won't be very instructive for the O's.

I wouldn’t say it’s a bad contract at all, since Cano has been worth far more than he’s been paid so far at FA prices.   As I said, he’s been worth about $195 mm, but he’s only been paid $108 mm.   That’s $87 mm to the good.    Even assuming a likely decline over the next 5 years, Cano only needs to be worth about 5 WAR in that time for the total 10-year deal to have been a good one.   Trouble is, Seattle hasn’t made the playoffs during Cano’s time with the team, though they’ve won 87, 86 and 89 games during that time.   

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Just now, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t say it’s a bad contract at all, since Cano has been worth far more than he’s been paid so far at FA prices.   As I said, he’s been worth about $195 mm, but he’s only been paid $108 mm.   That’s $87 mm to the good.    Even assuming a likely decline over the next 5 years, Cano only needs to be worth about 5 WAR in that time for the total 10-year deal to have been a good one.   Trouble is, Seattle hasn’t made the playoffs during Cano’s time with the team, though they’ve won 87, 86 and 89 games during that time.   

Yep, if there is a problem with the contract it is that it didn't lead to a playoff appearance.

 

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