Machado Trade Revisited. What If...

[wildbillhiccup]

So this is what the Orioles were able to get for Manny Machado.

Dodgers acquired SS Manny Machado from the Orioles for OF Yusniel Diaz, RHP Zach Pop, RHP Dean Kremer, 3B Rylan Bannon, and INF Breyic Valera.

And this is what the D'Backs were able to get for Paul Goldschmidt (i.e., what the Orioles could have gotten if they weren't so incompetent and seriously shopped Machado during the off season).

Cardinals acquired 1B Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks for RHP Luke Weaver, C Carson Kelly, INF Andrew Young, and a 2019 Competitive Balance Round B draft pick.

Sometimes being a fan of this team feels like I'm repeatedly flogging myself with a cat o' nine tails. 

[ChuckS]

Luke Weaver was not very impressive in his age 24 season with the Cardinals.  Kelly and Young look like nice prospects, but Young was also 24 and playing in Double A this past season.  

Overall package looks like it is maybe a little better than what the O's got back, but not definitively.  I think Diaz and Kremer compare favorably with Weaver and Kelly.  Bannon could end up being a better prospect than Young with a strong showing next season in Bowie.  

[Frobby]

Is it obvious to you that the Goldschmidt deal is better?    I don’t know enough about these guys to know.   Looks like Weaver and Kelly were top 50-60 prospects at one time, but have struggled in the majors.   

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, Frobby said:

Is it obvious to you that the Goldschmidt deal is better?    I don’t know enough about these guys to know.   Looks like Weaver and Kelly were top 50-60 prospects at one time, but have struggled in the majors.   

It's very obvious to me. Weaver had a down year, but is still young with TOR upside. Kelly struggled a bit when he was called upon to replace an injured Molina, but he's still one of the top catching prospects in the game. Those are the headliners. The Orioles deal had one head liner and he was barely one of the Dodgers' top 10 prospects. 

[wildbillhiccup]

7 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Luke Weaver was not very impressive in his age 24 season with the Cardinals.  Kelly and Young look like nice prospects, but Young was also 24 and playing in Double A this past season.  

Overall package looks like it is maybe a little better than what the O's got back, but not definitively.  I think Diaz and Kremer compare favorably with Weaver and Kelly.  Bannon could end up being a better prospect than Young with a strong showing next season in Bowie.  

I think a little better is a understatement. Weaver still has TOR upside and Kelly is one of the best catching prospects in the game. I'd never ever heard of Kremer before the Orioles traded for him. There's no way Diaz / Kremer even comes close to Weaver / Kelly. And it really shouldn't since the Cardinals are paying for more service time. But that's my point. The Cards were interested in Machado during the off season. If this is what they were willing to give up for Goldy then the Orioles could have probably pried Flaherty and Kelly away from them. But they insisted on "two MLB ready SPs" a demand that they knew no team could meet. 

[Luke-OH]

41 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So this is what the Orioles were able to get for Manny Machado.

Dodgers acquired SS Manny Machado from the Orioles for OF Yusniel Diaz, RHP Zach Pop, RHP Dean Kremer, 3B Rylan Bannon, and INF Breyic Valera.

And this is what the D'Backs were able to get for Paul Goldschmidt (i.e., what the Orioles could have gotten if they weren't so incompetent and seriously shopped Machado during the off season).

Cardinals acquired 1B Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks for RHP Luke Weaver, C Carson Kelly, INF Andrew Young, and a 2019 Competitive Balance Round B draft pick.

Sometimes being a fan of this team feels like I'm repeatedly flogging myself with a cat o' nine tails. 

I like the D’Backs return, but is it really much better than the Orioles return?

[badmamajama]

I just went and looked at the guys the D-Backs got back in the trade. I must be missing something. The Competitive Balance pick is more intriguing than the players they got back IMO.

[wildbillhiccup]

12 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I like the D’Backs return, but is it really much better than the Orioles return?

I think it has the potential to be. I also don't think Flaherty was untouchable going into the season. If that's true can you imaging a package headlined by Flaherty and Kelly? 

[NCRaven]

Really like Diaz, Kramer and Pop.  I still like the return on Machado given we only gave up 3 months of playing time.

[wildbillhiccup]

For context, Kelly was the 32nd ranked prospect going into last season...and Diaz was 77th.

[ChuckS]

6 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

For context, Kelly was the 32nd ranked prospect going into last season...and Diaz was 77th.

For even more context: After being ranked 32nd pre-2018, Kelly put up only a .773 OPS as a 23 year old in the PCL and had four hits in 42 at bats in his cup of coffee in the majors. 

I'm not crapping on the guy as a prospect, but I don't see him being vastly superior to Diaz.  

 

[bpilktree]

The Cardinals got an extra half year but the Dbacks also lost two years of service with Weaver compared to Diaz.  Weaver will has 4 more years of control and is arbitration eligible after next season so I think I like Diaz just as much for 6 years then Weaver for 4.    Kelly is a decent prospect but has struggled everywhere except AAA is a hitters league.  I didn’t know much about Kreamer before we got him but when the trade was made thought he seems to be ranked lot lower then what he should have been with not only the results he has but the stuff matched it.  He seems like a guy that for some reason has been overlooked.  Maybe it was cause of his draft position but he has first round stuff and the results have matched.  I can see him being in top 100 by mid season.  We also got Pop and Brannon who Luke is very high on.  The Diamondbacks trade seems more to retool while the guys e got where to rebuild.

[25 Nuggets]

2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Really like Diaz, Kramer and Pop.  I still like the return on Machado given we only gave up 3 months of playing time.

Given that, yes.  But the idea behind this thread is that the Orioles could have gotten even more had they traded Machado in the off season.  So... -shrug- we shall find out five years from now.

[Rene88]

Paul Goldschmidt is a fun player to watch! Screw you Cardinals!

[Ruzious]

Considering how long the O's waited to trade Manny, I think they got as much or more than could have been expected - and I'm saying that as someone who thinks Diaz is probably a little overrated.  Otoh, I think Kremer is more underrated than Diaz is overrated.  And Bannon seems to be exactly the type of prospect that I would have gone after if I were running the show <shudders>.  And Pop's a nice little add-on.