Harold Baines.....Lee Smith in Hall of Fame

[atomic]

7 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Is everyone really going to gloss over the steroid rumors?

Edgar Martinez should get in on his final ballot now.  His rWAR is 68.4, much higher than Ortiz.

I think Martinez should get in.  But Martinez has 560 games at 3B which helps his WAR.  Ortiz hit a lot more home runs than Martinez but otherwise they seem pretty similar players.  

Ortiz did win 3 World Series and has a 1.372 OPS in World Series play.  I think Ortiz is lock to be first year Hall of Famer.  WAR is not everything. 

[atomic]

Also on Steroids Martinez had his career high in home runs at age 37.  I think we should just assume everyone used steroids during the steroid era.  

[atomic]

40 minutes ago, atomic said:

Missed Vizquel.  But the other players with more hits than Baines not in the Hall of Fame:

 

Pete Rose
Derek Jeter
Adrian Beltre
Alex Rodriquez
Ichior Suzuki
Albert Pujols
Rafeal Palermeiro
Sam Rice
Barry Bonds

 

Rose, Rafeal, and Bonds should be in the Hall of Fame.   I suspect Jeter, Beltre, Suzuki and Pujols will get in.  A-Rod should get in if you base it on his baseball play.  So that leave Sam Rice. Who retired in 1934.  I dont' think Baines is a terrible pick.  Better choice than some other players mentioned in this thread that are stated as more deserving.  There is more to baseball than WAR.  Hard for a DH to get a high WAR but you still need a DH. 

Also Omar might make it in eventually. He got 37 percent of the vote on his first year and he has only a .688 career OPS. 

[DrungoHazewood]

45 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Is everyone really going to gloss over the steroid rumors?

Edgar Martinez should get in on his final ballot now.  His rWAR is 68.4, much higher than Ortiz.

No one who matters to the Hall cares about WAR.  Ortiz is as much better than Harold Baines in rWAR as Edgar is to him.  And steroids only matter if you don't like the guy.  Ortiz will go in on the first ballot.

[DrungoHazewood]

29 minutes ago, atomic said:

Also Omar might make it in eventually. He got 37 percent of the vote on his first year and he has only a .688 career OPS. 

I think Omar has a chance in the Harold Baines category.  Pretty good player for a very long time who you can credibly claim wasn't on steroids.  We might get a lot of 1960s-70s Veterans Committee-type poor selections out of that group.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

You spelled 1970 wrong.

The back end of regular PED use has to be no later than 1960, and we know there was at least some kind of experimentation as early as the 1880s.

But I was kind of channeling the sportswriter mentality that nobody was really on anything serious until Canseco.  All records prior to 1990ish are sacrosanct, everything after is suspect.

[atomic]

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think Omar has a chance in the Harold Baines category.  Pretty good player for a very long time who you can credibly claim wasn't on steroids.  We might get a lot of 1960s-70s Veterans Committee-type poor selections out of that group.

He might get in with the BBWA votes.  Raines and Blyleven had a lot less percentage of the vote in their first year.  

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Missed Vizquel.  But the other players with more hits than Baines not in the Hall of Fame:

Sam Rice

...So that leave Sam Rice. Who retired in 1934. 

I dont' think Baines is a terrible pick.  Better choice than some other players mentioned in this thread that are stated as more deserving.  There is more to baseball than WAR.  Hard for a DH to get a high WAR but you still need a DH. 

Sam Rice was inducted into the Hall in 1963.  He's notable for not being a major league regular until 27, then at 28 he missed most of the year (presumably for WWI).  He is the latest-starting position player in the Hall who doesn't have a caveat like the color line to fall back on.  In the days before really organized scouting/drafting and affiliated minors he just didn't really play much until his 20s.

Baines is only a terrible pick if your baseline is the players who've already been inducted.  Even a cursory analysis of the facts shows that there are hundreds of players who aren't in Cooperstown who were Baines' equal or better.  Yes, you have to have a DH.  But you also have to have a backup catcher.  And a 7th inning guy.  And a utility infielder.  They don't go into the Hall of Fame unless they're outstanding, either.  And it's hard to be outstanding when you're the 2nd catcher, or you never play the field, or you pitch only the 7th inning.

It's also hard to accumulate value when you're being platooned.  Baines retired after the 2001 season.  The last time he got 125 PAs in a season vs. lefties was 1989.

He was inducted to spite to the steroids crowd.  Don't try to make a legitimate case for him, becuase you'll end up justifying the induction of hundreds of others in the process.

[DrungoHazewood]

20 minutes ago, atomic said:

He might get in with the BBWA votes.  Raines and Blyleven had a lot less percentage of the vote in their first year.  

I don't doubt that there are a lot of current writers who'd like nothing better than to fill the Hall with 3rd or 4th tier candidates as a protest against steroid users breaking hitting records.  And it wouldn't hurt that it makes analysts cringe when they put in a guy with a .352 slugging percentage who played in the biggest-slugging era of all time.

[DrungoHazewood]

Here's your cool Harold Baines fact of the day:  He and Randy Johnson were in the AL at the same time for about a decade.  Baines' hitting record against Johnson was 0-0.  He never batted against Johnson.

Against Chuck Finley he was 12-for-44, with a .645 OPS.

Against Mark Langston he was 5-for-36, with a .356 OPS.

Against Jimmy Key he was 7-for-36 with a .515.

He hit Frank Viola pretty well, in 56 ABs he had an .841 OPS.

12-for-35 against David Wells.  Crushed Charlie Leibrandt, over a 1.000 OPS.  1-for-13 against Kenny Rogers.  Only had eight AB against Jamie Moyer despite a decade of overlap in the AL, although he did go 4-for-8.  He had four PAs against Andy Pettitte.  2-for-10 against Jesse Orosco.

Baines was a platoon DH for much of his career.

[foxfield]

On 12/9/2018 at 10:34 PM, eddie83 said:

The whole PED argument to me isn’t about morality. 

Bonds and Clemens based on the evidence were HOF players before PED use.  

It is the bane of HOF that great players like Shoeless Joe, Rose, Bonds and Clemens are not in the Hall.  However, I am fine with both Bonds and Clemens staying out as long as the other two are as well.  They were great players who knowingly cheated.  Again, I will wholeheartedly accept Bonds and Clemens but not until they resolve Jackson and Rose.

On 12/10/2018 at 12:42 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

What this shows is that there's no consensus on anything.  Lots of people talk about impact to pennant races and playoffs and dominating.  Black ink, grey ink.  "Don't want these Hall of Very good guys running up counting stats for 20 years."  But then they put in Baines and Morris who were big-time compilers with tons of innings and at bats who rarely led the league in anything.  The oldtimers don't want anything to do with WAR and analysis and then they induct Blyleven and Trammell mostly on the strength of career value as measured by WAR.  The BBWAA is split on steroids and PEDs in general.  

It's like a presidental primary with 17 candidates.  You will get some results that don't make sense.

This is very true, but the issue is not going to go away.

17 hours ago, SteveA said:

I gotta say, this one is definitely mystifying.

I have never been a strict "look at the WAR and put them in" guy.   It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Accumulated Value.   Saying just take the highest WAR and set a cutoff never appealed to me.   Like the women's golf HOF where you get in as soon as you win a certain # of tournaments.

Huge postseason performances (Jack Morris), fantastic record setting stretches (Orel Hershiser) are worthy of consideration in my mind.   Greatness can be about more than accumulated value.   Is it "fair" that other guys didn't get a chance to have those because of the team's they were on?   Probably not.   But if Archie Manning had been drafted by a different NFL team he could have had a career like Elway's.   If Bert Jones hadn't gotten badly hurt he WOULD have had a career like Elway's.   But they didn't.

Lee Smith was the saves leader for an era when saves were a Big Deal, and he was pretty dominant at it.   Throughout most of his career, pre-Rivera, I'll bet if you asked the top hitters in baseball who they would least like to face in the 9th inning, his name would be at the top of the list.   I have no problem with putting someone who was the best at something for over a decade in the HOF even if modern analytics show that "something" isn't worth what people thought it was.   In the game at the time he was a dominant closer and closers were considered critical to a team's success.

So sometimes I fall on the other side when someone tries to use one metric such as WAR to try to determine HOF consideration.   I think there's a lot much more to it, and I won't dismiss postseason success, or how much a player was respected and feared by opponents during his career, or extraordinary achievements that didn't significantly increase his WAR.

But Baines, I just don't get.   He didn't have the postseason heroics, or even the reputation as someone opposing teams feared.   He had a long career and accumulated some stats.   I get that he is Mr. White Sox, and the White Sox as a franchise are probably the least represented in the HOF of all the pre-expansion franchises.   But if you went around in the 80s and early 90s asking pitchers who they feared more, or who they couldn't get out, they would probably list a lot of guys ahead of Baines.    So he lacks any of the "intangibles" that I am usually willing to accept that the pure-WAR folks are horrified at.

And it's darn shame that such a good guy is now going to be the center of a controversy that he didn't ask for and that his name will have a negative connotation to so many baseball fans because of it.

My first thoughts were:  1)  I am happy for both of these guys and Baines especially is truly one of the games good guys.  2)  It's ironic that in rewarding a nice guy he is seemingly being doomed forever to be marred and I cannot think of anyone that deserves that less.  

14 hours ago, atomic said:

Baines had 2866 career hits.  Everyone with that many hits who wasnt associated with steroids or betting on baseball is in the Hall of Fame.

The line, for a very long time and certainly before the creation of saber metrics, was 3000 hits.  Baines played a very very long time and did not get there.  Cal did, Eddie did. Brooks was 28 hits shy of Baines, but his HOF resume was decidedly more robust.  I really like Harold Baines and was happy to have him while he was here.  And I am genuinely happy for him to receive this honor.  But even with all of the quirks in the system, for me, when considering any HOF player, you look at not just who is in and how that player stacks up...but almost more importantly, who is NOT in and how does that player stack up to those folks.

On that basis, I can see an argument for Lee Smith, even though it wouldn't really be my cup of tea, but I can understand the argument.  I can not see any rationalization for making a Harold Baines argument that isn't decided by he is a hell of a nice guy so...there.  I am not a WAR person really in the since that I know exactly what it means.  But I have watched and played baseball for a very long time and I never saw Harold Baines as being a HOFer.

The list of guys who are not in the Hall of Fame that would be worthy for consideration with Baines might include names like Fred McGriff, Mark Teixiera, Kenny Rogers and Dale Murphy.  And personally I would argue that Baines would rank pretty significantly behind all of these guys.  But I will go further, I would note that the following players have arguably had careers as good as or better than Baines, and like Baines ALL are former Orioles:

Bobby Grich, Davey Johnson, Paul Blair, Boog Powell, Mike Cuellar, Miguel Tejada, Mark Belanger, Albert Belle, Don Buford, Brady Anderson, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis.  For what it is worth, ALL of the players in both paragraphs above have at least as much WAR as Lee Smith (29) except Davey Johnson and Mike Cuellar.  And the rest have as much as Baines (38.7) except Don Buford and Brady Anderson.  I lumped in Adam Jones and Nick Markakis who also have less WAR than Baines, but more than Smith but are still playing.

Of all of the Orioles above, only Grich to me stands out as HOF worthy.  Finally in fairness to your post Atomic, and my post was not really a response to you, but only Tejada on the list above has ever been associated with steroids or betting on baseball.

[Moose Milligan]

Heyyyyy @DrungoHazewoodwanna reconsider Fred McGriff now? 

[foxfield]

49 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Heyyyyy @DrungoHazewoodwanna reconsider Fred McGriff now? 

I selected him in my post just for you....

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Heyyyyy @DrungoHazewoodwanna reconsider Fred McGriff now? 

If Harold Baines is now the bar you have to clear, I'm not only in on McGriff but also John Olerud, Boog, Jack Fournier, Mattingly, Dolph Camili, Gil Hodges, Mark Grace, Joe Judge, Norm Cash, Will Clark, Keith Hernandez.  Helton and Pujols should be shoo-ins.  Votto goes first ballot.  Kent Hrbek has a chance.  Steve Garvey probably goes in.  Cecil Cooper has a shot.  Wally Joyner.  Rudy York.  Mickey Vernon. Derrek Lee.  I was always a Joe Adcock fan.  Even that SOB Mark Teixeira will skate in.

And that's just the first basemen.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If Harold Baines is now the bar you have to clear, I'm not only in on McGriff but also John Olerud, Boog, Jack Fournier, Mattingly, Dolph Camili, Gil Hodges, Mark Grace, Joe Judge, Norm Cash, Will Clark, Keith Hernandez.  Helton and Pujols should be shoo-ins.  Votto goes first ballot.  Kent Hrbek has a chance.  Steve Garvey probably goes in.  Cecil Cooper has a shot.  Wally Joyner.  Rudy York.  Mickey Vernon. Derrek Lee.  I was always a Joe Adcock fan.  Even that SOB Mark Teixeira will skate in.

And that's just the first basemen.

So you're cool with McGriff all of a sudden.  I knew I could get you to come around.