The Pitching

[Frobby]

Today I was breaking down our season stats between pre- and post-trade deadline, and I noticed it was our pitching, not our hitting, that got considerably worse in August and September.

March - July: 3.83 runs scored/game

Aug. - Sept.: 3.85 runs scored/game

March - July: 5.18 runs allowed/game 

Aug. - Sept.: 6.16 runs/game

In March-July we underperformed our Pythagorean winning percentage (.355 Pythag, .299 actual).     In August/September, the gap was much narrower (.282/.272).    

I think any hope for a more competitive season in 2019 rests on improvement in the pitching.   It’s tough to see where that can come from except internal improvement.    Bundy (7.35 ERA in Aug./Sept.) and Cashner (7.97) were awful down the stretch, as was Yefri Ramírez (7.31).   On the bullpen side, Mike Wright really imploded (7.81), and a lot of the September call-ups really floundered (Meisinger, Carroll, Rogers, Phillips, Ortiz and Means combined for a 10.41 ERA).    

I hope to hell we hire a good pitching coach, give these pitchers some analytics help, and find some cheap reinforcements. 

[joelala]

I’m not too worried about being competitive next year, but certainly hope we hire a good pitching coach and that analytics can help Bundy, in particular, bounce back. 

Also am excited to see it Ortiz et al. fight for rotation spots in ST. 

[El Gordo]

Where's George Bamberger when we need him.

[mdbdotcom]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Today I was breaking down our season stats between pre- and post-trade deadline, and I noticed it was our pitching, not our hitting, that got considerably worse in August and September.

March - July: 3.83 runs scored/game

Aug. - Sept.: 3.85 runs scored/game

March - July: 5.18 runs allowed/game 

Aug. - Sept.: 6.16 runs/game

In March-July we underperformed our Pythagorean winning percentage (.355 Pythag, .299 actual).     In August/September, the gap was much narrower (.282/.272).    

I think any hope for a more competitive season in 2019 rests on improvement in the pitching.   It’s tough to see where that can come from except internal improvement.    Bundy (7.35 ERA in Aug./Sept.) and Cashner (7.97) were awful down the stretch, as was Yefri Ramírez (7.31).   On the bullpen side, Mike Wright really imploded (7.81), and a lot of the September call-ups really floundered (Meisinger, Carroll, Rogers, Phillips, Ortiz and Means combined for a 10.41 ERA).    

I hope to hell we hire a good pitching coach, give these pitchers some analytics help, and find some cheap reinforcements. 

Cobb had a sub-3.00 ERA in the second half, but only pitched 8 innings in September due to injury. Cashner pitched only 6.2 innings in September (but he was awful in the second half). That left 60+ innings to be picked up by bullpen arms and minor leaguers.

I'd like to see us trade Cobb and Cashner with the focus of the season being on improving pitching by improving defense and keeping pitchers healthy. If we score 3.85 runs per game again, we aren't going to win many, no matter how good the pitching is. 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm really intrigued to seeing who the next pitching coach is.  IMO, it's more important than who the manager is going to be (if it's not Hyde).  I don't think we got much of a return from the trades last summer, outside of maybe Kremer. Certainly it wasn't much to go off of, but Ortiz looked downright unimpressive.  Carroll was terrible.  I've already forgotten the rest because they're not worth remembering.

But if we are going to try to salvage any of those guys, we've got to have the right pitching coaches in the organization.  

[DrungoHazewood]

I am wrong to think that the performance of the 2019 Orioles is almost completely irrelevant to their future success?  Look at the 2011 Astros, the first of their 100+ loss seasons.  Jose Altuve is the only player of any note who was still on the roster when they first made the playoffs again in 2015.  There were 3-4 1988 Orioles on the 1992 Orioles. I'm just not that worried about the difference between 50 and 60 and 70 wins.  They're going to be 15-20 games out in June almost no matter what happens. My focus is how Delmarva and Frederick and Bowie are doing.

And the odds are that Hyde and the pitching coach won't be here in four years, either.

I suppose the need for individual performance comes in the form of tradeable assets.  The better they perform the more that can be swapped for 2022 assets.  But whether the 4th starter has a 4.88 or a 5.88 is kind of irrelevant.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I am wrong to think that the performance of the 2019 Orioles is almost completely irrelevant to their future success?  Look at the 2011 Astros, the first of their 100+ loss seasons.  Jose Altuve is the only player of any note who was still on the roster when they first made the playoffs again in 2015.  There were 3-4 1988 Orioles on the 1992 Orioles. I'm just not that worried about the difference between 50 and 60 and 70 wins.  They're going to be 15-20 games out in June almost no matter what happens. My focus is how Delmarva and Frederick and Bowie are doing.

And the odds are that Hyde and the pitching coach won't be here in four years, either.

I suppose the need for individual performance comes in the form of tradeable assets.  The better they perform the more that can be swapped for 2022 assets.  But whether the 4th starter has a 4.88 or a 5.88 is kind of irrelevant.

This is where I'm at. 

 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I am wrong to think that the performance of the 2019 Orioles is almost completely irrelevant to their future success?  Look at the 2011 Astros, the first of their 100+ loss seasons.  Jose Altuve is the only player of any note who was still on the roster when they first made the playoffs again in 2015.  There were 3-4 1988 Orioles on the 1992 Orioles. I'm just not that worried about the difference between 50 and 60 and 70 wins. 

On an intellectual level, you are 100% right.    And I don’t want to make any moves that will delay or impede the day when we are once again a contending team, even if that means being worse now.

That being said, as a fan I still want the team to win as many games as it’s capable of winning.  Sub-.450 baseball can be painful at times, but it’s watchable.    Sub-.300 Baseball is unbearable to watch.    I honestly felt like my summer was robbed this year.    And I’d rather watch games where we lose 4-2 than games where we fall behind 5-0 by the third inning and lose 8-2.     I can’t watch long stretches of games where the team is just out of it, or a team so bad that it never has even a modest hot streak.     And I do want to watch the games.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

On an intellectual level, you are 100% right.    And I don’t want to make any moves that will delay or impede the day when we are once again a contending team, even if that means being worse now.

That being said, as a fan I still want the team to win as many games as it’s capable of winning.  Sub-.450 baseball can be painful at times, but it’s watchable.    Sub-.300 Baseball is unbearable to watch.    I honestly felt like my summer was robbed this year.    And I’d rather watch games where we lose 4-2 than games where we fall behind 5-0 by the third inning and lose 8-2.     I can’t watch long stretches of games where the team is just out of it, or a team so bad that it never has even a modest hot streak.     And I do want to watch the games.

The last time I watched less baseball than 2018 was in 1978.  It was the 2nd or 3rd year since '78 I didn't see a game in person.  I'd like to have a reason to change that.  But I have a feeling that won't happen for a while.

This is the downside of a closed league where it's almost impossible for a team to go away and incentives exist to field a 60-win team instead of pushing for 80.  There will be stretches of multiple years where your favorite team is not doing all they can to win, on purpose.

[Frobby]

Also, I just want to see some of the players who are already in the organization play better.   For aesthetic reasons, to give more hope for the future, and for trade value purposes.     

[interloper]

Elias mentioned a "secret sauce" in regards to increasing strikeouts. Wouldn't elaborate in the Melewski article, obviously, but a fun tidbit.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Elias mentioned a "secret sauce" in regards to increasing strikeouts. Wouldn't elaborate in the Melewski article, obviously, but a fun tidbit.

I like strikeouts as much as the next fan does.

But concentrating on strikes can drive the pitch count and the walk ratio up.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Elias mentioned a "secret sauce" in regards to increasing strikeouts. Wouldn't elaborate in the Melewski article, obviously, but a fun tidbit.

I liked Duquette, but it'll be nice to not have to have those discussions about how the O's sign low-K pitchers because they are a market inefficiency and how Andrew Cashner pitches to contact on purpose to win more.

[interloper]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I liked Duquette, but it'll be nice to not have to have those discussions about how the O's sign low-K pitchers because they are a market inefficiency and how Andrew Cashner pitches to contact on purpose to win more.

Yeah can we please stop with the obsession with groundball pitchers? 

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, interloper said:

Yeah can we please stop with the obsession with groundball pitchers? 

Even since Camden Yards was built, the fans and talk shows have been obsessed with groundballpitchers.

They signed Scotty Erickson back in the day, because he was one.