O's trade international bonus pool money for SS Drew Jackson

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Middle infield is such a black hole in our system, I agree it will be worth it to keep both players. I couldn't care less if we bring back Peterson. If someone grabs him, there will be other Jace Peterson's available.

I don't want Jackson playing outfield. I want all these guys getting reps in the infield. I would rather see him at 3B with that arm if he needs a spot while Villar is on the team.

Unfortunately, Nunez, Jackson, and Martin are all RHB so a platoon option isn't really viable.

It really is. It's so unfortunate we couldn't convince the Brewers to part with Hiura. I would have been very excited about a Villar/Hiura middle infield tandem going into 2019. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Middle infield is such a black hole in our system, I agree it will be worth it to keep both players. I couldn't care less if we bring back Peterson. If someone grabs him, there will be other Jace Peterson's available.

I don't want Jackson playing outfield. I want all these guys getting reps in the infield. I would rather see him at 3B with that arm if he needs a spot while Villar is on the team.

Unfortunately, Nunez, Jackson, and Martin are all RHB so a platoon option isn't really viable.

3B Ruiz is a lefty.   I think we may see a Nunez/Ruiz competition in ST.

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

 

It's funny because on broadcasts you always hear, particularly with power hitters in a slump, that an opposite field gap hit is a sign of good things to come.  I wonder if there is truth to that or that is just an anachronistic idiom that came to be for some reason.

I think this is the difference between retrospective data and some combination of scouting/coaching, analytics and projection. 

The data on pull and SS% isn’t wrong. It is what it is...data. However, a swing is unfortunately a very fluid mix of timing, balance, etc. Many slumps happen when that timing/balance mix is off. This is often seen in hard hit pulled foul balls and weaker contact in fair play, particularly the opposite way.

I don’t have the data, but I might take a bet that players who hit line drives and/or with power up the middle or opposite field middle end up better over the following 30 days than exclusively pulling players. Why? Because a fluid swing moves more to the pull side until it goes too far and needs correcting. 

I absolutely believe a player who hits with authority up the middle has some pull-side power (which is optimal) in their near future.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It really is. It's so unfortunate we couldn't convince the Brewers to part with Hiura. I would have been very excited about a Villar/Hiura middle infield tandem going into 2019. 

I wonder if they would have done Manny for Hiura. I like Diaz and Kremer just fine but it should would have been nice to get an elite middle infield prospect back.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I wonder if they would have done Manny for Hiura. I like Diaz and Kremer just fine but it should would have been nice to get an elite middle infield prospect back.

I imagine they would have strongly considered making that trade. 

I also think with our MI situation that drafting Bobby Witt, Jr. #1 is probably a forgone conclusion. In this day and age a "good" hitting SS is almost a necessity. A good hitting catcher, not so much. 

[Roll Tide]

On 12/17/2018 at 6:14 PM, Luke-OH said:

The pull happy lift approach is why Drew Jackson started hitting better. He was doing the old Stanford Swing (definition from Baseball Prospectus if you aren’t familiar with the term, “The Stanford Swing is essentially a swing with very little loft that emphasizes hitting the other way and negates power”) when drafted.

An all-fields approach is overrated. I think it’s counter productive for the most common player types. It does work for players with natural loft and all-fields power (small group) and for players with little to no power, plus contact and speed (bigger group but usually 4th OF or Utility IF types).  Jackson has average raw power or a touch better and is far from plus contact, so he doesn’t fit either category. Otherwise, the major of players are better off trying to lift the ball and hit it to the part of the field where their power plays (almost always the pull side).

 

Here is the Baseball Prospectus article I quoted.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/25467/baseball-proguestus-why-college-bats-disappeared-from-the-top-of-the-draft/

Thanks for the info 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I imagine they would have strongly considered making that trade. 

I also think with our MI situation that drafting Bobby Witt, Jr. #1 is probably a forgone conclusion. In this day and age a "good" hitting SS is almost a necessity. A good hitting catcher, not so much. 

Elias has said he won’t draft on need.   Besides, our catchers all suck.   

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Elias has said he won’t draft on need.   Besides, our catchers all suck.   

And Witt might not end up being a "good" hitting SS.

[makoman]

I don’t want to draft for need, but especially not a high schooler. Need can change a lot in the years before a high schooler makes the majors. 

When we drafted Manny we didn’t have Hardy yet and didn’t know Schoop would be anything. Manny obviously worked out spectacularly and wasn’t a need pick, but let’s suppose he had been a less talented need based MI...the pick would have looked dumb a few years later. At the top of the draft pick the best player and sort it out later. 

[weams]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I wonder if they would have done Manny for Hiura. I like Diaz and Kremer just fine but it should would have been nice to get an elite middle infield prospect back.

Huira still wearing that compression sleeve? Did he ever have the Tommy John surgery? Those unrepaired injuries have a way of catching up. Ask Schoop.  

[Number5]

3 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I imagine they would have strongly considered making that trade. 

I also think with our MI situation that drafting Bobby Witt, Jr. #1 is probably a forgone conclusion. In this day and age a "good" hitting SS is almost a necessity. A good hitting catcher, not so much. 

I don't think anything about the 2019 draft is a foregone conclusion right now.  The high school and college seasons haven't been played.

[Jammer7]

On 12/17/2018 at 6:14 PM, Luke-OH said:

The pull happy lift approach is why Drew Jackson started hitting better. He was doing the old Stanford Swing (definition from Baseball Prospectus if you aren’t familiar with the term, “The Stanford Swing is essentially a swing with very little loft that emphasizes hitting the other way and negates power”) when drafted.

An all-fields approach is overrated. I think it’s counter productive for the most common player types. It does work for players with natural loft and all-fields power (small group) and for players with little to no power, plus contact and speed (bigger group but usually 4th OF or Utility IF types).  Jackson has average raw power or a touch better and is far from plus contact, so he doesn’t fit either category. Otherwise, the major of players are better off trying to lift the ball and hit it to the part of the field where their power plays (almost always the pull side).

 

Here is the Baseball Prospectus article I quoted.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/25467/baseball-proguestus-why-college-bats-disappeared-from-the-top-of-the-draft/

That was interesting, not that I agree with it completely, but thought provoking. Was this text speaking to major leaguers, minor leaguers, college players, all hitters, or what? Certainly seems that it would be more about higher end professional players. Developmentally, through high school and even college for most, hitters have to be productive enough in less at bats that they turn heads. They have to be projectable and show that power. You cannot teach undeveloped kids and teenagers to try to have the same mechanics and approach that a professional utilizes. They just cannot do it. 

I can see pulling the middle-in pitches, sure. But the optimal contact point for outside pitches does not correlate to pulling unless your swing is flawed. You have to cheat or pull off. That’s a terrible tactic IMO. That would make you more susceptible to the breaking ball in the outer half, and other issues. You would have to be way up on the plate and use a longer bat.

A professional hitter certainly is more polished with time for more reps for pitch recognition and which swing to employ at which times in their count. And they are stronger as they have grown into their bodies and put in more useful muscle. But, look at how Schoop, Jones and Davis struggled when they tried to pull everything. But, when they showed a willingness to stay closed and barrel the ball at the proper contact point, their hitting was much better. 

The numbers may indicate that pulling the ball is more statistically beneficial to a hitters numbers. I’d like to see how that corresponds to pitch location. In an era where throwing inside seems to be frowned upon, I get it. But after years of watching the aforementioned Oriole hitters strike out over and over again in a way that it was predictable before they even walked up to the plate, especially when the game was in the line, I disagree. 

I detest Manny Machado, but his best years were an all fields approach. He struggled the last two years when he became more pull happy. Yes, Manny is a rare hitter. But clearly, another example that when he was right, he was driving the outside pitch to right center.

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

That was interesting, not that I agree with it completely, but thought provoking. Was this text speaking to major leaguers, minor leaguers, college players, all hitters, or what? Certainly seems that it would be more about higher end professional players. Developmentally, through high school and even college for most, hitters have to be productive enough in less at bats that they turn heads. They have to be projectable and show that power. You cannot teach undeveloped kids and teenagers to try to have the same mechanics and approach that a professional utilizes. They just cannot do it. 

I can see pulling the middle-in pitches, sure. But the optimal contact point for outside pitches does not correlate to pulling unless your swing is flawed. You have to cheat or pull off. That’s a terrible tactic IMO. That would make you more susceptible to the breaking ball in the outer half, and other issues. You would have to be way up on the plate and use a longer bat.

A professional hitter certainly is more polished with time for more reps for pitch recognition and which swing to employ at which times in their count. And they are stronger as they have grown into their bodies and put in more useful muscle. But, look at how Schoop, Jones and Davis struggled when they tried to pull everything. But, when they showed a willingness to stay closed and barrel the ball at the proper contact point, their hitting was much better. 

The numbers may indicate that pulling the ball is more statistically beneficial to a hitters numbers. I’d like to see how that corresponds to pitch location. In an era where throwing inside seems to be frowned upon, I get it. But after years of watching the aforementioned Oriole hitters strike out over and over again in a way that it was predictable before they even walked up to the plate, especially when the game was in the line, I disagree. 

I detest Manny Machado, but his best years were an all fields approach. He struggled the last two years when he became more pull happy. Yes, Manny is a rare hitter. But clearly, another example that when he was right, he was driving the outside pitch to right center.

I’m talking about the pro game. There is debate about how to teach kids to hit. Do you teach a swing and approach that will benefit them when they mature or do you teach them a swing that will put more balls in play which will lead to better results as a kid. It’s a tough question and I don’t coach kids so I don’t really have the answer. 

As far as the pull happy strategy, it’s important to remember that 50% pull rate is extremely high, 46% is a standard deviation above the mean in MLB. So even the most pull happy guys go the other way or up the middle half the time. But that’s not the goal, a good AB is taking pitches they can’t turn on and either walking or pulling a mistake. A guy with average power can hit 40 HR if they can pull enough balls in the air. So of course if you have two strikes it’s good to poke things the other way, the best hitters can do that and turn on mistakes.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I detest Manny Machado, but his best years were an all fields approach. He struggled the last two years when he became more pull happy. Yes, Manny is a rare hitter. But clearly, another example that when he was right, he was driving the outside pitch to right center.

I must have missed the part where Manny struggled last year.   I was under the mistaken impression that he had his best offensive season.  

That said, his pull rate was lower last year, and I agree he’s at his best when hitting to all fields.   He’s one of those rare guys who has power to all fields.    

[Jammer7]

9 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I’m talking about the pro game. There is debate about how to teach kids to hit. Do you teach a swing and approach that will benefit them when they mature or do you teach them a swing that will put more balls in play which will lead to better results as a kid. It’s a tough question and I don’t coach kids so I don’t really have the answer. 

As far as the pull happy strategy, it’s important to remember that 50% pull rate is extremely high, 46% is a standard deviation above the mean in MLB. So even the most pull happy guys go the other way or up the middle half the time. But that’s not the goal, a good AB is taking pitches they can’t turn on and either walking or pulling a mistake. A guy with average power can hit 40 HR if they can pull enough balls in the air. So of course if you have two strikes it’s good to poke things the other way, the best hitters can do that and turn on mistakes.

I appreciate your response. Sorry, the youth coach and baseball dad in me never dies...lol. To your point, I remember that Manny Ramirez never let an inside fastball get past him. His swing and approach was the model for which many learned to do exactly what you are speaking of. Certainly, every successful hitter has to be able to adapt to what the pitcher is trying to do. And I agree that most hitters will need to pull the ball well and lift it to drive their slugging % upward.

Another poster wrote about hearing power hitters are at their best when driving the ball oppo. To me, this is definitely true. As you stated, pulling the ball more than half the time is extreme. They have to be a threat to drive the outside pitch, or why would a pitcher do anything else? 

Old school thought was to protect a few, or even several, inches off the outside corner, and of course we still teach that because high school umpires are much less efficient and professional than that you see in the major leagues. They also don’t have cameras and other technology showing how poorly they are judging the zone.  If you pull that pitch, rollover ground ball to SS at best. So, perhaps the smaller area to protect (than before) and all of the data have simplified things that counter the increased velocity over the past 15 years. Thanks for the info.