Mancini is an average defensive left fielder according to UZR

[wildcard]

I was looking at Fangraphs and it appears to me that they show that a healthy Mancini is an average left fielder.   Using UZR as the measurement  Mancini would be slightly above zero in a healthy year according to what I am reading.  

UZR is made up of two elements ARM and RanR which measure range.   In 2017 Mancini RanR was -1.3.   He should be able to make that level in 2019. His 2018 RanR was 10 but that reflex his knee injury and the brace he wore for several months.   

Mancini's 2017 ARM reflexed his learning on the job how to throw from the outfield.  It was -3.5.   But in 2018 he had learned how to throw from the outfield and his ARM rating improved to 1.7.   

So a healthy Mancini should be able to achieve a -1.3 RanR and a   1.7 ARM making his projected  2019 UZR a +0.4.  Zero is an average left fielder.

I am not suggesting that Mancini is an ideal left fielder for the O's.  That probably will be Yusniel Diaz in a year or so.   But during 2019 Mancini may not be the disaster that many paint him to be in left field.

What am I missing?

 

 

[Frobby]

What are you missing?   His -9.5 and -17.1 UZR/150 for the last two years in LF?    The below average ratings by every other advanced defensive metric?   A set of eyeballs?

[Moose Milligan]

33 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

What am I missing?

 

 

Watching the games?

[pastorfan]

37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I was looking at Fangraphs and it appears to me that they show that a healthy Mancini is an average left fielder.   Using UZR as the measurement  Mancini would be slightly above zero in a healthy year according to what I am reading.  

UZR is made up of two elements ARM and RanR which measure range.   In 2017 Mancini RanR was -1.3.   He should be able to make that level in 2019. His 2018 RanR was 10 but that reflex his knee injury and the brace he wore for several months.   

Mancini's 2017 ARM reflexed his learning on the job how to throw from the outfield.  It was -3.5.   But in 2018 he had learned how to throw from the outfield and his ARM rating improved to 1.7.   

So a healthy Mancini should be able to achieve a -1.3 RanR and a   1.7 ARM making his projected  2019 UZR a +0.4.  Zero is an average left fielder.

I am not suggesting that Mancini is an ideal left fielder for the O's.  That probably will be Yusniel Diaz in a year or so.   But during 2018 Mancini may not be the disaster that many paint him to be in left field.

What am I missing?

 

 

I'n not sure Elias will allow him to play OF. He might move him to 1B. Maybe he slowly implements things and allows him for this year, I'm not sure.

[Luke-OH]

29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I was looking at Fangraphs and it appears to me that they show that a healthy Mancini is an average left fielder.   Using UZR as the measurement  Mancini would be slightly above zero in a healthy year according to what I am reading.  

UZR is made up of two elements ARM and RanR which measure range.   In 2017 Mancini RanR was -1.3.   He should be able to make that level in 2019. His 2018 RanR was 10 but that reflex his knee injury and the brace he wore for several months.   

Mancini's 2017 ARM reflexed his learning on the job how to throw from the outfield.  It was -3.5.   But in 2018 he had learned how to throw from the outfield and his ARM rating improved to 1.7.   

So a healthy Mancini should be able to achieve a -1.3 RanR and a   1.7 ARM making his projected  2019 UZR a +0.4.  Zero is an average left fielder.

I am not suggesting that Mancini is an ideal left fielder for the O's.  That probably will be Yusniel Diaz in a year or so.   But during 2018 Mancini may not be the disaster that many paint him to be in left field.

What am I missing?

You are missing it's not good practice to just pick and choose the data the supports your opinion and shrug off data to the contrary.

His UZR/150 in LF was -8.1 in 2017 and -17.1 in 2018

His DRS in LF were -1 in 2017 and -12 in 2018

His OOA (statcast) in the OF were -5 in 2017 and -10 in 2018

His rFielding (baseball reference) were -5 in 2017 and -14 in 2018

[Frobby]

Honestly, I thought in 2018 Mancini might improve enough to be average or slightly below.   Instead, he was worse.    And to my eye, that preceded his knee injury, which IMO didn’t bother him the entire season anyway.    I think he’s said as much.   You certainly can’t say he is an average LF, and you’d really have to be a pretty wild-eyed optimist to think he can become one at this point.   I think the OP makes way too much of his injury.    Mancini doesn’t get a great initial read on fly balls, sometimes gets turned around, and he’s not very fast.   (In fairness to wildcard, Mancini’s average sprint speed was 27.5 in 2017, 27.0 in 2018.    If he wants to blame that on the knee injury, I can’t prove him wrong.)

[weams]

39 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

What am I missing?

 

 

Defensive metrics are unreliable in determining  value of defensive play. On both sides of the spectrum. It causes problems using WAR as a be all as well. Watch them play. He's a horrible outfielder. Much like Trumbo and Cruz and Mickey Tettleton. 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

You are missing it's not good practice to just pick and choose the data the supports your opinion and shrug off data to the contrary.

His UZR/150 in LF was -8.1 in 2017 and -17.1 in 2018

His DRS in LF were -1 in 2017 and -12 in 2018

His OOA (statcast) in the OF were -5 in 2017 and -10 in 2018

His rFielding (baseball reference) were -5 in 2017 and -14 in 2018

Better response.

[weams]

Just now, Frobby said:

Honestly, I thought in 2018 Mancini might improve enough to be average or slightly below.   Instead, he was worse.    And to my eye, that preceded his knee injury, which IMO didn’t bother him the entire season anyway.    I think he’s said as much.   You certainly can’t say he is an average LF, and you’d really have to be a pretty wild-eyed optimist to think he can become one at this point.   I think the OP makes way too much of his injury.    Mancini doesn’t get a great initial read on fly balls, sometimes gets turned around, and he’s not very fast.   (In fairness to wildcard, Mancini’s average sprint speed was 27.5 in 2017, 27.0 in 2018.    If he wants to blame that on the knee injury, I can’t prove him wrong.)

Yes. But I'll not buy the knee bit. 

[weams]

I'll go to the other extreme. Trey Mancini needs to never play outfield for a non competitive club. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

But that injury that didn't result in time on the disabled list caused huge drops in both offense and defense. 

The one thing I learned from the article on Mancini I wrote this spring was that most players who debut at the age Mancini did with the type of season he had in 2017 don't have a successful career. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

The one thing I learned from the article on Mancini I wrote this spring was that most players who debut at the age Mancini did with the type of season he had in 2017 don't have a successful career. 

His 2017 looked like a best case scenario season to me at the time.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

I'll go to the other extreme. Trey Mancini needs to never play outfield for a non competitive club. 

Maybe a dozen or so innings during a season.

Injuries, blow outs, that sort of stuff.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

[AnythingO's]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

But that injury that didn't result in time on the disabled list caused huge drops in both offense and defense. 

His 2017 numbers were below average as he  played a new position and adjusted. That gave hope for improvement in 2018 but I tend to believe the  non-disabled list injury hurt him more than he would admit. How would Stewart's defense in 2018 compare with Mancini in 2017?  I believe Stewart is an improvement so Weam's point is valid, we have a better option.