Mancini is an average defensive left fielder according to UZR

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

His 2017 numbers were below average as he  played a new position and adjusted. That gave hope for improvement in 2018 but I tend to believe the  non-disabled list injury hurt him more than he would admit. How would Stewart's defense in 2018 compare with Mancini in 2017?  I believe Stewart is an improvement so Weam's point is valid, we have a better option.

Did his numbers in the outfield improve as the season went on?

I don't recall that happening but I can't say for sure one way or another.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

The one thing I learned from the article on Mancini I wrote this spring was that most players who debut at the age Mancini did with the type of season he had in 2017 don't have a successful career. 

To me, he’s spent two full years in the major leagues, has made more than $1 mm playing baseball, and has health care coverage for the rest of his life and a very healthy pension.   He’s already had a successful career.   

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did his numbers in the outfield improve as the season went on?

I don't recall that happening but I can't say for sure one way or another.

I thought they did.   That’s why I expected his 2018 numbers to improve over 2017, but they didn’t.  

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What are you missing?   His -9.5 and -17.1 UZR/150 for the last two years in LF?    The below average ratings by every other advanced defensive metric?   A set of eyeballs?

How well do you play when he first begin a position or are injured?   There is a big difference between his play in 2016 when he was learning the position and what he should be now.  And he was injured last year.  Let's see how you play with a big brace around your knee.

I explained why he is average in the OP.  Now maybe average is not good enough but I did not invent UZR.

[Beef Supreme]

26 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

The one thing I learned from the article on Mancini I wrote this spring was that most players who debut at the age Mancini did with the type of season he had in 2017 don't have a successful career. 

And then there is Nelson Cruz...

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Trey is a 1B or DH on a team with no Trumbo and Davis blocking him.

Advanced Fielding

Projections  |  Minor Leagues  |  Regular Season

Season	Team	Pos	Inn	rSZ	rCERA	rSB	rGDP	rARM	rGFP	rPM	DRS	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ	FSR	ARM	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150
2017	Orioles	1B	324.0				-1		1	-4	-4	43	32	.744	6	-1		-0.2	-1.4	-0.1	-1.6	-5.7
2018	Orioles	1B	363.0	0			0		-1	-1	-2	59	46	.780	12			0.0	0.4	-0.4	0.0	0.0
Total	- - -	1B	687.0	0			-1		0	-5	-6	102	78	.765	18	-1		-0.2	-0.9	-0.5	-1.6	-2.4
2017	Orioles	LF	729.1					2	1	-4	-1	123	112	.911	40	-4	-3.5		-1.3	0.0	-4.8	-8.9
2018	Orioles	LF	771.1	0				0	2	-14	-12	140	118	.843	67		1.7		-10.0	0.0	-8.3	-17.1
Total	- - -	LF	1500.2	0				2	3	-18	-13	263	230	.875	107	-4	-1.8		-11.3	0.0	-13.1	-12.3
2017	Orioles	RF	13.0					0	0	0	0	4	4	1.000	0	0	-0.4		0.0	0.0	-0.3	-51.2
Total	- - -	RF	13.0					0	0	0	0	4	4	1.000	0	0	-0.4		0.0	0.0	-0.3	-51.2
2017	Orioles	OF	742.1					2	1	-4	-1	127	116	.913	40	-4	-3.9		-1.3	0.0	-5.1	-9.5
2018	Orioles	OF	771.1	0				0	2	-14	-12	140	118	.843	67		1.7		-10.0	0.0	-8.3	-17.1
Total	- - -	OF	1513.2	0				2	3	-18	-13	267	234	.876	107	-4	-2.2		-11.3	0.0	-13.4	-12.5

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, I thought in 2018 Mancini might improve enough to be average or slightly below.   Instead, he was worse.    And to my eye, that preceded his knee injury, which IMO didn’t bother him the entire season anyway.    I think he’s said as much.   You certainly can’t say he is an average LF, and you’d really have to be a pretty wild-eyed optimist to think he can become one at this point.   I think the OP makes way too much of his injury.    Mancini doesn’t get a great initial read on fly balls, sometimes gets turned around, and he’s not very fast.   (In fairness to wildcard, Mancini’s average sprint speed was 27.5 in 2017, 27.0 in 2018.    If he wants to blame that on the knee injury, I can’t prove him wrong.)

The thing about UZR is its a yearly measure.  So if he played very bad with the injury  for a couple of months it effects the numbers for the whole year.   Look at his range for 2017 when he was not injury.  -1.3 and his arm in 2018  +1.7 after he learned to throw from the outfield.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

How well do you play when he first begin a position or are injured?   There is a big difference between his play in 2016 when he was learning the position and what he should be now.  And he was injured last year.  Let's see how you play with a big brace around your knee.

I explained why he is average in the OP.  Now maybe average is not good enough but I did not invent UZR.

Read my other posts in this thread.   He’s not average.   If you want to debate whether he can become average in the future, go ahead.   I think you have a losing argument, but at least there’s an arguable point there.    It’s indisputable that he’s been substantially below average so far.   By the way, here’s a list of all players who logged 1000+ innings in LF over the last two years.    Guess who ranks last?    Mr. “Average LF.”   https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=1000&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

How well do you play when he first begin a position or are injured?   There is a big difference between his play in 2016 when he was learning the position and what he should be now.  And he was injured last year.  Let's see how you play with a big brace around your knee.

I explained why he is average in the OP.  Now maybe average is not good enough but I did not invent UZR.

Were you the one that proclaimed that Mancini would be the most improved outfielder in baseball last year?

I remember mocking someone but I'm not sure who it was.

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Read my other posts in this thread.   He’s not average.   If you want to debate whether he can become average in the future, go ahead.   I think you have a losing argument, but at least there’s an arguable point there.    It’s indisputable that he’s been substantially below average so far.   By the way, here’s a list of all players who logged 1000+ innings in LF over the last two years.    Guess who ranks last in UZR/150?    Mr. “Average LF.”   https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=1000&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Where did I say Mancini was an average left field in 2017 or 2018?    I am projecting that if he is healthy he can put up the range numbers of 2017.   Its below average range but it is offset by his arm if he throws like he did in 2018.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Were you the one that proclaimed that Mancini would be the most improved outfielder in baseball last year?

I remember mocking someone but I'm not sure who it was.

Not me.

[spiritof66]

I'm confident that Mancini will not be an average outfielder, or close to it. While putting him out there next season wouldn't be be anywhere near the team's biggest weakness, it won't help a lick (I wonder when I last used that expression? -- it's been a while), as far as I'm concerned, in figuring out Mancini's future role or building his trade value. On the other hand, playing Stewart in LF would be helpful in learning what we've got there.

I would like to see Mancini start and play at least 80, and preferably more, games at 1B in 2019. I was disappointed with what he showed there for 40+ innings in 2018, but I have to think his defense was adversely affected by his intensive efforts to learn to play the OF, and maybe by lingering effects of the injury. I don't care that Chris Davis is probably still a better defender at 1B, even as his skills have diminished. For the foreseeable future, let Davis platoon at DH and spend the time he's not on the field working in the batting cage, watching videos of hitters from whom he might learn something, or cheering on his teammates.  

 

[25 Nuggets]

47 minutes ago, weams said:

I'll go to the other extreme. Trey Mancini needs to never play outfield for a non competitive club. 

what about for a competitive club?  lol

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Where did I say Mancini was an average left field in 2017 or 2018?    I am projecting that if he is healthy he can put up the range numbers of 2017.   It below average range but it is offset by his arm if he throws like he did in 2018.

As someone once said, “it depends what your definition of ‘is’ is.”     

[Tx Oriole]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To me, he’s spent two full years in the major leagues, has made more than $1 mm playing baseball, and has health care coverage for the rest of his life and a very healthy pension.   He’s already had a successful career.   

You could say that for sure.