Rank the #1 Draft Disappointments

[weams]

9 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Rowell.

I understand the frustration with the Hobgood situation, but that wasn't that kids fault.  It's not his fault that the Orioles are stupid.  I didn't like the pick, I don't think anyone really did.  But I'm not going to hold the Orioles stupidity against that guy.

Rowell was just a big flameout.  And then he started hitting the reefer with Corn and got an attitude problem.  

You sure it was just the Reef?

[weams]

8 hours ago, MMussina35 said:

Passing on Rendon too...

Passing on Smoak. That could well have kept Davis away. 

[WalkWithElias]

If the question is worst pick, the answer is Hobgood. If we're going with bust, the answer is Rowell.

However, I can also make an argument for Matusz. He absolutely dominated the minors, came to the show and looked great. Then collapsed on himself spectacularly. He was probably the most frustrating because it looked like he was going to live up to the hype and then something snapped and it was over. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

If the question is worst pick, the answer is Hobgood. If we're going with bust, the answer is Rowell.

However, I can also make an argument for Matusz. He absolutely dominated the minors, came to the show and looked great. Then collapsed on himself spectacularly. He was probably the most frustrating because it looked like he was going to live up to the hype and then something snapped and it was over. 

If you have guys on the list that never made it out of the low minors and guys on the list that had an eight year career, I'm going with the former.

[weams]

 

[dorfmac]

There are definitely worse first round picks that we've had, but the most disappointing to me was Wieters. Someone who all the way up showed the potential to be an all-time great at the position ended up barely being replacement level. 

The draft is a crapshoot anyways, so I expect a lot of flops. Once we do seem to hit, it's extra disappointing when it doesn't translate.

[weams]

Just now, dorfmac said:

There are definitely worse first round picks that we've had, but the most disappointing to me was Wieters. Someone who all the way up showed the potential to be an all-time great at the position ended up barely being replacement level. 

The draft is a crapshoot anyways, so I expect a lot of flops. Once we do seem to hit, it's extra disappointing when it doesn't translate.

Catchers always disappoint. Except twice. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

Catchers always disappoint. Except twice. 

Unrealistic expectations. 

[Redskins Rick]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you have guys on the list that never made it out of the low minors and guys on the list that had an eight year career, I'm going with the former.

I agree, I could never call a guy that played in the big leagues a bust.

Just because they didn't pan out to the hype they were selected with, mean they were a bust.

Why put Wieters on this list and ask if he was a bust, isnt very funny. 4 times AS, 2 GG, and a career war of 18, which a 4.1 and 5.2 season. Which is hardly replacement level. I think the thing with catchers is how much abuse their body takes.

 

[bpilktree]

I went with Matusz because he was a college pitcher was in many eyes one of the most polished pitchers in the draft and was nearly major league ready at the time many thought.  I think high school picks are more upside but a lot more unpredictable and can flame out when they face higher level competition.  They also seem to be more injury risk.  When drafting I don't really look at what a guy has done until maybe AA because that is where you see who really has what it takes and are not just guys getting by on pure talent.  If you pitch well there then that is where I start getting excited.  Brian did that and it was at a time we really needed a true TOR pitcher which i thought he could be for some years.  He came up and looked good at one point at the end of the year with fastball change and a good curve.  Then all the sudden the changeup disappeared with no warning or injury and things starting going downhill and forced him to the pen.  He had a good year or two there when we were good but never really returned to rotation or his early success.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, bpilktree said:

I went with Matusz because he was a college pitcher was in many eyes one of the most polished pitchers in the draft and was nearly major league ready at the time many thought.  I think high school picks are more upside but a lot more unpredictable and can flame out when they face higher level competition.  They also seem to be more injury risk.  When drafting I don't really look at what a guy has done until maybe AA because that is where you see who really has what it takes and are not just guys getting by on pure talent.  If you pitch well there then that is where I start getting excited.  Brian did that and it was at a time we really needed a true TOR pitcher which i thought he could be for some years.  He came up and looked good at one point at the end of the year with fastball change and a good curve.  Then all the sudden the changeup disappeared with no warning or injury and things starting going downhill and forced him to the pen.  He had a good year or two there when we were good but never really returned to rotation or his early success.

I understand the disappointment with Matusz, he had a great rookie season, starting and doing a 2.9 WAR.

Sadly, he was just a 2 pitch pitcher, and never lived up to the hype of being a TOR and part of the Calvary to save us.

But 8 years in the bigs, regardless of the role, takes him out of the bust category. IMO

[DrungoHazewood]

39 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you have guys on the list that never made it out of the low minors and guys on the list that had an eight year career, I'm going with the former.

Right.  You can't pick Weiters and Matusz when Hobgood and Rowell are available.  On the basis of draft position Hobgood was supposed to be at least a solid major league starter. His best season was posting something like the 6th best ERA on the Delmarva Shorebirds, as a reliever.

Also Chris Smith.  He might be the O's worst first round pick of all time.  7th overall in 2001.  Affiliated minor league career of an 8.72 ERA in 52 innings, none above the Sally League.  As a 22-year-old in Bluefield (2 years older than an average Appy League player) he walked 21 in 11 innings and hit five batters.  Pretty obviously hurt on or about draft day.  That 2001 draft was a winner.  Jim Johnson and Mike Fontenot were the only players the O's drafted/signed that had any kind of halfway MLB career.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Now if evidence surfaced that indicated the O's passing on Trout was directly connected to Rowell's performance that would make him the clear choice.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Now if evidence surfaced that indicated the O's passing on Trout was directly connected to Rowell's performance that would make him the clear choice.

21 Teams passed by on Trout

https://www.halosheaven.com/2012/6/25/3111972/mike-trout-drafted-by-angels-after-21-teams-passed

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, dorfmac said:

There are definitely worse first round picks that we've had, but the most disappointing to me was Wieters. Someone who all the way up showed the potential to be an all-time great at the position ended up barely being replacement level. 

The draft is a crapshoot anyways, so I expect a lot of flops. Once we do seem to hit, it's extra disappointing when it doesn't translate.

How is 18 WAR, 4-time all star, 2-time Gold Glove “almost replacement level?”   Wieters was very good, just not great.    Really, the expectations placed on him came from his 2008 MiL season in A+/AA; he was highly regarded on draft day but not seen the same way as after the ‘08 season.