Response to Roch's Jan 1st blog on O's moves

[panick]

48 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think they literally saw Mo Vaughn when they were picking him. Like Mo Vaughn must have been standing next to Stewart when they Skyped him during the draft. Swing, body type, OBP. They anticipated emerging power. Had to, right?

When talking about the pick of Stewart, Duquette said he reminded him of the other fat, Red Sox half-player. I thought that was very odd that the O's picked a projected DH in the first round.

That's probably one reason why the O's farm system has been so poor. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, panick said:

When talking about the pick of Stewart, Duquette said he reminded him of the other fat, Red Sox half-player. I thought that was very odd that the O's picked a projected DH in the first round.

That's probably one reason why the O's farm system has been so poor. 

I don’t remember that comparison being made, and Stewart is not a DH.

Interesting factoid: there are four college players who were drafted ahead of Stewart but haven’t made the majors yet.    Two of them are now in the Orioles’ organization — Dillon Tate (drafted no. 4) and Richie Martin (drafted no. 20).

[interloper]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t remember that comparison being made, and Stewart is not a DH.

Interesting factoid: there are four college players who were drafted ahead of Stewart but haven’t made the majors yet.    Two of them are now in the Orioles’ organization — Dillon Tate (drafted no. 4) and Richie Martin (drafted no. 20).

That's a pretty good factoid.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t remember that comparison being made, and Stewart is not a DH.

Interesting factoid: there are four college players who were drafted ahead of Stewart but haven’t made the majors yet.    Two of them are now in the Orioles’ organization — Dillon Tate (drafted no. 4) and Richie Martin (drafted no. 20).

I don't remember it being said like that, but I do recall Duquette comping him to Vaughn.

[Bradysburns]

On 1/3/2019 at 9:43 AM, Frobby said:

Did we have a backlog of that type of player when Stewart was drafted?    

I assume we drafted him because we thought he could be a solid major league hitter and liked his leadership skills.    I’d say his hitting has been mildly disappointing compared to what we were hoping for, but the story isn’t fully written yet.    Like many others, 2019 will be an interesting year for Stewart.  If his OBP skills transfer to the majors and he shows a bit of pop, I’ll be pretty satisfied.    

Debatable, admittedly... but we did have several fringe multi-positions/limited players on hand, like Reimold, Chris Davis, Christian Walker, etc., then we went out and got Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, etc. I'm just leery of guys with no set positions at the MLB level, who have just enough bat to hang around and collect paychecks. 

Again, not ragging on DJ. I think he's going to be a valuable piece for someone, and maybe us. I'd just say: If his defense isn't plus in left, I wouldn't see him as an everyday left fielder. And I don't want to see him out there if we have a defensive stud waiting... 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Bradysburns said:

Debatable, admittedly... but we did have several fringe multi-positions/limited players on hand, like Reimold, Chris Davis, Christian Walker, etc., then we went out and got Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, etc. I'm just leery of guys with no set positions at the MLB level, who have just enough bat to hang around and collect paychecks. 

Again, not ragging on DJ. I think he's going to be a valuable piece for someone, and maybe us. I'd just say: If his defense isn't plus in left, I wouldn't see him as an everyday left fielder. And I don't want to see him out there if we have a defensive stud waiting... 

I guess I’m more bullish on Stewart than you.    He’s a competent outfielder from what I’ve heard.   And I like having high OBP guys in the mix even if their power is just so-so.    I see Seth Smith as a reasonable comp, though I believe Stewart is less vulnerable to LHP.

[LookinUp]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess I’m more bullish on Stewart than you.    He’s a competent outfielder from what I’ve heard.   And I like having high OBP guys in the mix even if their power is just so-so.    I see Seth Smith as a reasonable comp, though I believe Stewart is less vulnerable to LHP.

You're relative bullishness on Stewart made me go back to the OH top prospect list and see what they wrote. It's here: http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/11/19/dj-stewart-of-2018-24-prospect/

Interesting profile for our supposed #24 prospect. I think if the OH rankings were more based on who is the best player, as opposed to who would you rather have in your system, Stewart would rank higher. I"m not dancing in the streets, but he's a fair draft pick at that spot.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

You're relative bullishness on Stewart made me go back to the OH top prospect list and see what they wrote. It's here: http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/11/19/dj-stewart-of-2018-24-prospect/

Interesting profile for our supposed #24 prospect. I think if the OH rankings were more based on who is the best player, as opposed to who would you rather have in your system, Stewart would rank higher. I"m not dancing in the streets, but he's a fair draft pick at that spot.

The OH list puts an emphasis on ceiling.

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The OH list puts an emphasis on ceiling.

Yes, and I agree with that approach. It does come at the (small) cost of being more explicit regarding who is better right now and accepts that they need to make subjective rankings on guys with very different probabilities. 

There are several guys on this list who may never get to Stewart's level. Hunter Harvey is a perfect example. I'd rather have him, so his placement where it is is perfectly fine with me even though he may never even make the majors due to injury.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I guess I’m more bullish on Stewart than you.    He’s a competent outfielder from what I’ve heard.   And I like having high OBP guys in the mix even if their power is just so-so.    I see Seth Smith as a reasonable comp, though I believe Stewart is less vulnerable to LHP.

I like Stewart after what I saw last year. Previously I was not a believer. It felt like a pretty Joe Jordan-esque draft pick to me. But I enjoyed watching his ABs - he gave the impression that he belonged and had some pretty good ABs. His home runs were proper dongs. He gave effort in the field. I'd much rather watch him play every day than Joey Rickard, though I agree with others that he's a LF, not a RF. But I also wouldn't put it past him that he could handle RF as I do think he's fast enough if he positions well and has good jumps.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Bradysburns said:

Debatable, admittedly... but we did have several fringe multi-positions/limited players on hand, like Reimold, Chris Davis, Christian Walker, etc., then we went out and got Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, etc. I'm just leery of guys with no set positions at the MLB level, who have just enough bat to hang around and collect paychecks. 

Again, not ragging on DJ. I think he's going to be a valuable piece for someone, and maybe us. I'd just say: If his defense isn't plus in left, I wouldn't see him as an everyday left fielder. And I don't want to see him out there if we have a defensive stud waiting... 

I am sorry you don’t understand baseball better then. It’s not like that. Anyway you have your opinions and are entitieled to them. 

 

One question though. How do you judge defense?

[wildcard]

Stewart's opportunity looks like it will come in 2019.   By 2020 the O's will have Diaz, Mullins, Hays, McKenna in  the outfield and Mancini, Davis, or Mountcastle at DH.   All are rated better than Stewart except Davis who has that contract.   Stewart probably ends up to be an extra player.  Either bench, AAA or traded on or before 2020.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Stewart's opportunity looks like it will come in 2019.   By 2020 the O's will have Diaz, Mullins, Hays, McKenna in  the outfield and Mancini, Davis, or Mountcastle at DH.   All are rated better than Stewart except Davis who has that contract.   Stewart probably ends up to be an extra player.  Either bench, AAA or traded on or before 2020.

On paper, I’d agree with you.   But you never know who will make the expected progress and who will not.  Hopefully Stewart will play well and make those decisions hard.   

[Bradysburns]

On 1/4/2019 at 1:30 PM, weams said:

I am sorry you don’t understand baseball better then. It’s not like that. Anyway you have your opinions and are entitieled to them. 

 

One question though. How do you judge defense?

I'm sorry, too, Weams. I wish I understood baseball better sometimes. 

I judge defense by watching people play defense, generally. I am not a big expert on UZR, etc. Maybe you can educate me, or just leave me to my ignorance. 

[Bradysburns]

On 1/4/2019 at 12:12 PM, Frobby said:

I guess I’m more bullish on Stewart than you.    He’s a competent outfielder from what I’ve heard.   And I like having high OBP guys in the mix even if their power is just so-so.    I see Seth Smith as a reasonable comp, though I believe Stewart is less vulnerable to LHP.

Possibly... Again, I'm not down on DJ. And I definitely value OBP.

I'm just saying: Unless he's a plus defender, I wouldn't want him to be the permanent left field solution, regardless of bat. If he is a plus defender, great! Regardless, I do suspect he'll be a valuable piece.